Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview

Posted on November 3, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5 | Total Points: 50.5

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs. the Chiefs, the Dolphins have an above .500 record at 6-2. Taking a look at their latest game, the Dolphins defeated the Patriots by a score of 31-17. Being favored by 7.5 points against the Patriots, the Dolphins came through with an ATS win. With an over/under line of 46.5 points, the game saw a total of 48 points, going over the set line.

Heading into the game, the Chiefs are the 1st ranked team in the AFC with a record of 6-2. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 4-1. In their most recent game, the Chiefs fell to the Broncos by a score of 24-9. Given that the Chiefs were favored by 7, they were also handed a loss vs. the spread. In the Chiefs’ latest game, the under bettors were correct as the teams totaled 33 points, below the line of 45.5 points.

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs History

Last season, the Dolphins and Chiefs did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 3-0. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 50 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Through their last three road games, Miami has an ATS record of just 1-2. However, their overall record was 1-2 while averaging 20 points per game.
Across their three previous home games, Kansas City has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-1 while averaging 19 points per game.
Looking back on the team’s last five games as the underdog, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 1-4. Their record vs the spread in these games was 3-2.
Through their last five games as the favorite, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.

Notable Injuries

Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert – Ankle (Questionable)
Jalen Ramsey – Knee (Questionable)
Durham Smythe – Ankle (Questionable)
Nik Needham – Achilles (Questionable)
Connor Williams – Groin (Questionable)
De’Von Achane – Knee (Out)
Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
Justin Bethel – Foot (Questionable)
Braxton Berrios – Hamstring (Questionable)
Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
Chris Brooks – Ankle/knee (Out)
Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
Brandon Jones – Concussion (Questionable)
Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
River Cracraft – Shoulder (Questionable)
Terron Armstead – Knee (Questionable)
Xavien Howard – Groin (Questionable)

Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon – Groin (Questionable)
Tommy Townsend – Hand (Probable)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Illness (Out)
Nick Bolton – Wrist (Out)
Willie Gay – Tailbone (Questionable)
Cole Christiansen – Hamstring (Out)
Prince Tega Wanogho – Quad (Out)
Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
Justyn Ross – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
Richie James – Knee (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

In what is projected to be a tightly contested game, Tua Tagovailoa will be looking to put together a strong performance for a Miami offense ranked 1st in points per game. This season, he has completed 70.4% of his passes, leading an average of 302 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 1st among QB’s in passing yards and 8th in attempts. Against the Chiefs, the team will look to get receiver Tyreek Hill involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 10.9 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 1014. At 151.8 rushing yards per game, the Dolphins are 1st in the NFL. This figure has come on an average of 25.8 attempts (17th).

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

On offense, the Chiefs are averaging 23.4 points per game, putting them 12th in the NFL. Kansas City will look to continue executing well in the passing attack, as they currently ranked 3rd in the league in yards per game. This has come while dropping back to pass at a rate of 38.8 times per contest. Kansas City comes in with an average of 4 yards per rushing attempt and have an average of 25.2 attempts per game. In terms of total rushing yards, they are currently ranked 21st in the league.

Betting Trends

When looking at their past three road matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 20 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
In their last three games at home, the Chiefs have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 1-2 vs the spread. The team averaged 19 points per game in this stretch.
Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Dolphins have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
Through their last five games as the favorite, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 4-1.