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Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview

travis kelce

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Chiefs -4.5 | Total Points: 44

Miami comes into this AFC matchup amid a two-game losing streak. Currently, the team is 6th in the AFC and have a Conference record of 7-5. The Dolphins are coming off a 21-14 loss to the Bills. In addition to their 7-point loss, the Dolphins also lost vs. the spread. They were 2.5-point underdogs heading into the game. In their most recent game against Buffalo, the pre-game over/under line was set at 48, leading the under to hit a combined total of 35 points.

Overall, the Chiefs have an above .500 record at 11-6. Helping their cause is the fact that they are in the midst of a two-game winning streak. In AFC action, the team is 9-3. In their previous game, the Chiefs secured a victory against the Chargers by a score of 13-12. In addition to winning the game, the Chiefs managed to cover the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. In the Chiefs’ most recent game, the under bettors finished with the win as the teams combined for 25 points. The pre-game line was set at 35.

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs History

The first matchup between the teams saw the Chiefs win with a 21-14 score over the Dolphins. Coming into the game, the Chiefs were the underdogs at +0.5 and picked up an ATS win. The over/under line going into the game was 51.5 points, which the teams fell short of.

Last season, the Dolphins and Chiefs did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Chiefs have the leg up at 3-0. The Chiefs also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 45 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Notable Injuries

Miami Dolphins

  • Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
  • Jalen Ramsey – Knee (Out)
  • Nik Needham – Achilles (Out)
  • Jeff Wilson Jr. – Finger (Out)
  • Robert Jones – Knee (Out)

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
  • Charles Omenihu – Suspension (Out)
  • Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
  • Travis Kelce – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

Miami’s offense is 2nd in the league, with an average of 29.2 points per contest. Tua Tagovailoa enters the game ranked 1st among quarterbacks in passing yards. His passer rating, 101.1, places him 10th at the position. Currently, he has completed 69.3% of his passes. This season, the Dolphins offense is handing the ball off at one of the higher rates in the NFL. This has translated to an average of 26.8 yards per game, placing them 6th in the NFL.

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

Regarding their offense, the Chiefs have an average of 21.8 points per game, which places them 13th in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes comes in with a passer rating of 92.6, which places him 22nd in the quarterback rankings. In terms of yardage, he has thrown for 4183 and has completed 27 passing touchdowns. Kansas City has managed to find success on offense, even though they are ranked just 19th in rush yards per game. However, this lack of production has more to do with limited opportunities, as they are a below-average group in attempts.

Betting Trends

  • In their last five games away from home, the Dolphins have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 25 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last three games at home, the Chiefs have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 1-1-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 19 points per game in this stretch.
  • Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, Miami has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
  • Although the Chiefs have a strong straight up record in their last three games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs. the spread going 1-1-1.


  • Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Miami Dolphins 20
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