Game Preview

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Pick and Preview

Justin Herbert

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Chargers -5.5 | Total Points: 40.5

This week, the Chargers will look to snap their current three-game losing streak with a victory over the Patriots. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 4-7. The Chargers recently suffered a 20-10 defeat at the hands of the Ravens. In addition to their 10-point loss, the Chargers also suffered a setback in their ATS record. They were 3.5-point underdogs at the start of the game. In the matchup with Baltimore, the pre-game over/under line was 48.5. The under hit, as they combined for 30 points.

Heading into this week’s game, the Patriots have dropped four straight games and have a record of just 2-9. In week 13, the Patriots will be looking to recover from the 10-7 loss they suffered against the Giants. In addition to their defeat in the game, the Patriots also fell short of covering the spread as 4-point favorites. The over/under line for their most recent game against New York was 35.5. Finishing with a combined total of 17 points, the under hit in this matchup.

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots History

The Patriots have gone a perfect 3-0 in their last three head-to-head matchups vs. the Chargers. The over/under record in the five most recent head-to-head games between the Chargers and Patriots is 2-3, with an average of 46 points per game. The last three times that the Chargers have been on the road vs. the Patriots, the over/under record is 3-2.

  • Across the Chargers last five road games, the team averaged 23 points per game while allowing 22. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 2-3 straight-up.
  • New England has a straight-up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, and they have not held up well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 11 points per game in these games.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, New England has an ATS mark of 1-9 while going 1-9 straight up.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Chargers have a straight up record of 6-4 and are 6-4 ATS.

Notable Injuries

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Corey Linsley – Heart (Out)
  • Joey Bosa – Foot (Out)
  • Mike Williams – Knee (Out)
  • Nick Vannett – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Chris Rumph II – Foot (Out)
  • JT Woods – Illness (Questionable)
  • Tanner Muse – Knee (Out)
  • Joshua Palmer – Knee (Out)
  • Raheem Layne – Knee (Out)
  • Andrew Trainer – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Amechi Uzodinma – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Ja’Sir Taylor – Illness (Questionable)
  • Keenan Allen – Quad (Questionable)
  • Zack Bailey – Back (Questionable)
  • Trey Pipkins III – Wrist (Questionable)
  • Rashawn Slater – Back (Probable)

New England Patriots

  • Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
  • Demario Douglas – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
  • Matthew Slater – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Ty Montgomery II – Ilness (Probable)
  • Trent Brown – Ankle/chest (Questionable)
  • David Andrews – Foot (Questionable)
  • Ezekiel Elliott – Thigh (Questionable)
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Chris Board – Back (Questionable)
  • Kayshon Boutte – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Deatrich Wise Jr. – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Sidy Sow – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Out)
  • Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
  • Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
  • Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
  • Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)
  • Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
  • Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
  • Riley Reiff – Knee (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: Los Angeles Chargers

Led by quarterback Justin Herbert, the team’s 7th-ranked scoring offense will need be on top of their game to cover the spread as -5.5 point betting favorites. This season, he has completed 66.2% of his passes, leading an average of 256 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 9th among QB’s in passing yards and 5th in attempts. Keenan Allen has been targeted 129 times this season and has caught 97 passes. He comes into the game with a total of 1117 receiving yards. On the ground, the Chargers have run the ball an average of 25.4 times per game and are 19th in rushing yards. So far, they are averaging 3.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Keys To Victory: New England Patriots

Offensively, the Patriots are averaging 13.5 points per game (27th). New England will look to be more efficient in the passing game this week, as they are among the league leaders in attempts per game but are averaging just 193.8 yards per game through the air. On the season, quarterback Mac Jones has completed 64.9% of his passes, leading a passer rating of 77.0. The team’s top receiver, Demario Douglas, has caught 36 passes and has accumulated 410 receiving yards this season. A major reason for the team’s lack of offense is their inability to generate production with the rushing attack. Heading into today’s game, the team’s below-average number of rush attempts has turned into an average of just 99.6 rushing yards per game.

Betting Trends

  • Across the Chargers last ten road games, the team averaged 23 points per game while allowing 22. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-6, while going 4-6 straight-up.
  • Although New England has a straight-up record of 3-7 in their last ten home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 3-7. The team averaged 18 points per game in these games.
  • Going back to their previous five games as the underdog, New England has an ATS mark of 1-4 while going 1-4 straight up.
  • The Chargers have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.

Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Prediction

  • Los Angeles Chargers 25 – New England Patriots 23
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