Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins Pick and Preview

Posted on November 17, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Dolphins -13.5 | Total Points: 46.5

Heading into this week’s matchup against Miami, the Raiders have won two straight games and have a current record of 5-5. The Raiders hosted the Jets in their last game, picking up a 16-12 win. While picking up the win, the Raiders also covered the spread as 0.5-point underdogs. The under bettors were successful in the Raiders’ most recent game, with a combined total of 28 points. The game’s betting line was 35.5.

Heading into the game, the Dolphins are the Dolphins are the 4th ranked team in the AFC with a record of 6-3. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 4-2. In week 9, the Dolphins hit the road to face the Chiefs, but they suffered a 21-14 loss. Besides their straight-up loss, the Dolphins also failed to cover the spread as 0.5-point favorites. The under hit in the Dolphins’ most recent game, as the team’s combined for 35 points. The line going into the game was 51.5.

Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins History

In the last five head-to-head matchups, the Dolphins have had the upper hand, going 3-2. Going back to the last five head-to-head games between the Dolphins and Raiders, the over/under record in these games is 5-0, with a combined average of 51 points per contest.

Across their ten previous road games, Las Vegas has an ATS mark of 3-7. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 3-7 while averaging 17 points per game.
When looking at their past three home matchups, Miami has an ATS record of 0-3 while averaging 17 per game. The team went 0-3 overall in these games.
In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Raiders have a straight-up record of 4-6, and an ATS mark of 5-5.
Miami has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

Notable Injuries

Las Vegas Raiders

Brandon Facyson – Shin (Out)
Roderic Teamer – Hamstring (Questionable)
Jakob Johnson – Concussion (Probable)
Kolton Miller – Shoulder (Questionable)
Amik Robertson – Concussion (Questionable)
Austin Walter – Undisclosed (Out)
Darien Butler – Undisclosed (Out)
Kana’i Mauga – Knee (Out)
Brittain Brown – Undisclosed (Out)
Dalton Wagner – Undisclosed (Out)
Maxx Crosby – Knee (Questionable)
Marcus Peters – Knee (Questionable)
Adam Butler – Knee (Questionable)
Greg Van Roten – Biceps/quad/triceps (Questionable)
Divine Deablo – Ankle (Questionable)
Nate Hobbs – Ankle (Questionable)
Dylan Parham – Calf (Questionable)

Miami Dolphins

Raheem Mostert – Ankle/knee (Questionable)
Robert Jones – Knee (Questionable)
Salvon Ahmed – Rib (Probable)
Jaylen Waddle – Knee (Probable)
Jaelan Phillips – Back/toe (Probable)
Jevon Holland – Back (Probable)
Durham Smythe – Ankle (Questionable)
Chase Claypool – Knee (Questionable)
Braxton Berrios – Hamstring (Questionable)
Alec Ingold – Foot (Questionable)
Terron Armstead – Knee (Questionable)
Zeke Vandenburgh – Knee (Out)
De’Von Achane – Knee (Questionable)
Erik Ezukanma – Neck (Out)
Chris Brooks – Ankle/knee (Out)
Brandon Jones – Concussion (Questionable)
Robert Hunt – Hamstring (Questionable)
Isaiah Wynn – Quadriceps (Out)
Keion Crossen – Undisclosed (Out)

Keys To Victory: Las Vegas Raiders

Las Vegas’ offense is 24th in the league, with an average of 17.2 points per contest. Production in the passing game has been hard to come by for the Raiders, as they are averaging just 192.1 yards per game through the air. However, much of this has to do with a lack of opportunities, as Las Vegas is just 22nd in attempts per contest. When it comes to rushing, the Raiders are averaging 3.4 yards per attempt while running the ball an average of 24.6 times per game. At 83.3 rushing yards per contest, they are 29th in the league.

Keys To Victory: Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa and the NFL’s top-ranked scoring offense head to Miami looking to take care of business, as they are the -13.5 point favorites on the spread. This season, he has completed 69.5% of his passes, leading an average of 289 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 3rd among QB’s in passing yards and 11th in attempts. Tyreek Hill has been targeted 97 times this season and has caught 69 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 1076 receiving yards. Per attempt, the Dolphins are averaging 5.7 yards while carrying the ball an average of 25.2 times per contest. In terms of yardage, they are 2nd in the league.

Betting Trends

Across their five previous road games, Las Vegas has an ATS mark of 1-4. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-4 while averaging 14 points per game.
Through their last five home contests, the Dolphins offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 30. Miami posted an overall record of 2-3 while going 2-3 ATS.
Going back to their last five games as the underdog, the Raiders have a straight-up record of 2-3, and their mark vs. the spread was also just 2-3.
In their last three games as the betting favorite, the Dolphins have a strong straight-up record of 2-1. In addition, their ATS record was 2-1 in these scenarios.