Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Pick and Preview

Posted on December 15, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5 | Total Points: 37.5

This week, the Chiefs will look to snap their current two-game losing streak with a victory over the Patriots. Heading into action, the team has an above .500 record of 8-5. After dropping their last game to the Bills by a score of 20-17, they are looking to bounce back with a win this week. Not only did the Chiefs lose the game, but they also didn’t cover the spread as 1.5-point favorites. In their most recent game against Buffalo, the pre-game over/under line was set at 49.5, leading the under to hit with a combined total of 37 points.

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Chiefs, the Patriots have a below .500 record at 3-10. The Patriots took on the Steelers in week 14, winning by a score of 21-18. Besides their outright victory, the Patriots also covered the spread as 5-point underdogs. The over/under line for their game vs. 30.5 points, which the teams exceeded with a combined 39 points.

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots History

The last three times that the Chiefs have faced off vs. the Patriots as the favorite, they have gone 2-1. Looking back over the previous three times that the Chiefs and Patriots have faced off, they have combined to average 47 points per game and have an over/under record of 1-2.

In their last five games away from home, the Chiefs have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
Across the Patriots’ last ten home games, the team averaged 18 points per game while allowing 23. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 3-7, while going 3-7 straight-up.
As the betting underdog, the Patriots have an ATS mark of just 2-8 in their last ten games. New England posted a straight-up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
Spanning across their last three games as the betting favorite, the Chiefs have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.

Notable Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs

Mike Edwards – Illness (Questionable)
Leo Chenal – Illness (Probable)
Nick Bolton – Wrist/abdomen (Questionable)
Gerrit Prince – Undisclosed (Out)
Bryan Cook – Ankle (Out)
Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
Isiah Pacheco – Shoulder (Questionable)
Prince Tega Wanogho – Quad (Out)
Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
Donovan Smith – Neck (Questionable)
Mecole Hardman Jr. – Thumb (Out)

New England Patriots

Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
Demario Douglas – Concussion (Questionable)
Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
Trent Brown – Ankle/hand/illness (Questionable)
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Ankle (Questionable)
Christian Barmore – Shoulder (Questionable)
Tyquan Thornton – Hamstring (Questionable)
Brenden Schooler – Illness (Questionable)
Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
Kayshon Boutte – Shoulder (Questionable)
Rhamondre Stevenson – Ankle (Out)
Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)
Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
DeVante Parker – Knee (Questionable)
Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs come in with an average of 22.5 points per game on offense, which has them 11th in the NFL. With a passer rating of 93.3, Patrick Mahomes is 19th at the position. This figure has come while throwing for 3398 yards and 23 passing touchdowns. Kansas City has managed to find success on offense, even though they are ranked just 17th in rush yards per game. However, this lack of production has more to do with limited opportunites, as they are a below-average group in attempts.

Keys To Victory: New England Patriots

This season, the Patriots have had their problems on offense, as they are averaging just 13 points per game. In terms of passing yards, New England’s offense is 19th in attempts. Their average of 189.5 passing yards per game places them 25th in the league. If the Patriots are going to turn things around on offense, they would benefit from improving their numbers on the ground. So far, New England is ranked just 21st in attempts and 22nd in yards.

Betting Trends

Across their three previous road games, Kansas City has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 19 points per game.
Across their three previous home games, New England has an ATS mark of 1-2. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 1-2 while averaging 15 points per game.
Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 2-8. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-8.
As the betting favorite, the Chiefs have an ATS mark of just 1-4 in their last five games. Kansas City posted a straight-up mark of 1-4 in these matchups.