Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos Pick and Preview

Posted on October 27, 2023

AFC West Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Chiefs -7 | Total Points: 46.5

Overall, the Chiefs have an above .500 record at 6-1. Helping their cause is the fact that they are in the midst of a six game winning streak. In AFC action, the team is 4-0. Most recently, the Chiefs faced off against the Chargers at home. This game ended in a 31-17 win for Kansas City. The Chiefs covered the spread, as they were favored by 6 against the Chargers. In the Chiefs’ most recent game, the under bettors finished with the win as the teams combined for 48 points. The pre-game line was set at 48.5.

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Chiefs, the Broncos have a below .500 record at 2-5. The Broncos are coming off a win after defeating the Packers with a final score of 19-17. Given that they were favored by 1.5 against the Packers, the Broncos picked up an ATS win. Going into the game vs. Green Bay, the over/under line was 44. With a combined total of 36 points, the under hit in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos History

Last season, the Chiefs and Broncos met up two times, with the Chiefs going 2-0. The two teams averaged a combined 56.5 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-0. Against the spread, the Broncos went 2-0. The Chiefs’ offense finished their head-to-head matchups with 402.5 yards per game of offense. As for the Broncos, they averaged 313.5 yards offensively.

Across the previous three matchups between Denver and Kansas City, the Chiefs have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been close, with Kansas City averaging 26 points and Denver at 20.

Notable Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon – Groin (Questionable)
Harrison Butker – Illness (Questionable)
Cole Christiansen – Hamstring (Out)
Prince Tega Wanogho – Quad (Out)
Nick Bolton – Wrist (Out)
Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
Richie James – Knee (Out)

Denver Broncos

Garett Bolles – Hip (Questionable)
Brandon Johnson – Hamstring (Questionable)
Alex Palczewski – Hand (Out)
Justin Simmons – Hip (Probable)
Dwayne Washington – Knee (Probable)
Jonas Griffith – Knee (Out)
Caden Sterns – Knee (Out)
Eyioma Uwazurike – Suspension (Out)
Greg Dulcich – Hamstring (Out)
Jalen Virgil – Meniscus (Out)
K’Waun Williams – Ankle (Out)
Kareem Jackson – Suspension (Out)
Tim Patrick – Achilles (Out)

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

In terms of offense, the Chiefs are at 25.4 points per game, ranking them 6th in the NFL. So far this season, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 15 touchdowns, which is 2nd among quarterbacks. He has 2017 passing yards and is 3rd at the position. This season, the Kansas City offense has been able to put up points at an above-average rate, even though they have struggled to move the ball on the ground. So far, they are averaging just 4.1 yards per attempt, leading to a per-game average of 111.3.

Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos

Ranked 17th in the league, the Broncos offense is averaging 21.1 points per game. Denver’s passing attack comes into this week’s game ranked 22nd in passing yards. In addition, they are 24th in attempts, throwing the ball an average of 30.6 times per game. Even though the Denver offense is averaging 5 yards per attempt, they are below average unit in overall rushing yards. So far, the Broncos are 17th in rushing yards per contest.

Betting Trends

Through their last ten road contests, the Chiefs offense has averaged 29 points per game while allowing an average of 22. Kansas City posted an overall record of 9-1 while going 5-5 ATS.
Through their last five home games, Denver has an ATS record of just 1-3-1. However, their overall record was 1-4 while averaging 19 points per game.
As the betting underdog, the Broncos have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 0-3 in these matchups.
Looking back on the team’s last ten games as the favorite, the Chiefs have a straight-up record of 9-1. Their record vs the spread in these games was 7-3.