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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview

Patrick Mahomes

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -3 | Total Points: 45.5

Overall, the Chiefs have an above .500 record at 11-6 and they have won three straight games. In AFC action, the team is 10-3. In their last game, the Chiefs posted the Dolphins and won by a score of 26-7. As 4.5-point favorites against the Dolphins, the Chiefs picked up an ATS win. In the matchup with Miami, the pre-game over/under line was 43.5. The under hit, as they combined for 33 points.

Coming into this Divisional round AFC matchup, the Bills are in the middle of a six-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 11-6. The Bills are coming off a win after defeating the Steelers with a final score of 31-17. Since they were favored by 10 against the Steelers, the Bills secured an ATS victory. The game had an over/under line of 39 points, and both teams went beyond it, scoring a combined total of 48 points.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills History

When the Chiefs and Bills faced off for the first time, it was the Bills who clinched a 20-17 win. As they entered the game, the Bills were considered underdogs with a +1.5 point spread but managed to secure an ATS win. When the game started, the over/under line was 49.5 points, and the teams fell short of it.

When looking back on the last three times the Bills and Chiefs have played each other, Buffalo has the edge with a record of 2-1. However, the average scoring differential in these matchups is dead, even with each team averaging 26 points per game.

Notable Injuries

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
  • Charles Omenihu – Suspension (Out)
  • Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)

Buffalo Bills

  • Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
  • Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
  • Von Miller – Knee (Out)
  • Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
  • Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

Quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the league’s 15th-ranked scoring offense into Buffalo, averaging 247.2 passing yards per game. Kansas City will continue turning to the pass on offense, as they throw the ball an average of 37.6 times per contest. Overall, Mahomes has put together a passer rating of 92.6 while throwing for 4183 yards. Wide receiver Travis Kelce is pacing the Chiefs with 984 receiving yards. Overall, he has 93 catches on 121 targets. Kansas City will take on the Bills as one of the more efficient teams when running the ball. For the season, the unit is averaging 4.2 yards per attempt, placing them 11th in the league.

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

Among NFL teams, the Bills offense has been doing well this season, averaging 26.8 points per game (6th). In this week’s game, Buffalo’s passing game is currently 10th in passing yards. Additionally, they are 15th in pass attempts, throwing an average of 33.8 passes each game. A key aspect of the team’s strong offensive play has been their ability to run the ball. This year, the Bills are near the top of the league in both attempts and yards per game. Currently, the team is averaging 132.8 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends

  • Through their last five road contests, the Chiefs offense has averaged 19 points per game while allowing an average of 19. Kansas City posted an overall record of 3-2 while going 2-2-1 ATS.
  • Across their last three home contests, Buffalo has been good against the spread, posting a mark of 2-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-0, while averaging 21 points per game.
  • As the betting underdog, the Chiefs have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their, straight up record was 3-0.
  • Through their last five games as the favorite, the Bills have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight-up mark of 5-0.


  • Buffalo Bills 26 – Kansas City Chiefs 22
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