Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers Pick and Preview

Posted on October 27, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Jaguars -2.5 | Total Points: 41

Coming into this week 8 AFC matchup, the Jaguars are in the middle of a four-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 5-2. In week 7, the Jaguars hit the road to face the Saints, coming away with a 31-24 win. While picking up the win, the Jaguars also covered the spread as 2.5-point underdogs. With the over/under line set at 41 points, the over hit with a combined 55 points.

As the Steelers prepare for this AFC matchup, the team has an overall record of 4-2. This includes riding a current two-game win streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 3-1. In their previous game, the Steelers defeated the Rams with a final score of 24-17. The Steelers not only won straight-up but also covered the spread as 3.5-point underdogs. The under hit in the Steelers’ most recent game, where the teams’ combined total was 41 points. The line prior to the game stood at 43.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Pittsburgh Steelers History

Last season, the Jaguars and Steelers did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Steelers have the leg up at 2-1. Against the spread, each team went 1-1-1 and finished with an over/under mark of 1-2. These games averaged a combined 50 points per contest.

Across their ten previous road games, Jacksonville has an ATS mark of 7-3. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 6-4 while averaging 25 points per game.
Across the Steelers’ last ten home games, the team averaged 16 points per game while allowing 21. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 7-3, while going 6-4 straight-up.
Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Pittsburgh has an ATS mark of 7-3 while going 7-3 straight up.
Through their last three games as the favorite, the Jaguars have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Notable Injuries

Jacksonville Jaguars

Zay Jones – Knee (Questionable)
DaVon Hamilton – Back (Questionable)
Parker Washington – Knee (Out)
Gregory Junior – Hamstring (Questionable)
Walker Little – Knee (Questionable)
Tyson Campbell – Hamstring (Questionable)
Chris Claybrooks – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
Jaylon Moore – Knee (Out)
Brandon Scherff – Ankle (Questionable)
Trevor Lawrence – Knee (Questionable)
Andre Cisco – Hamstring (Questionable)
Ventrell Miller – Achilles (Out)
Leonard Taylor – Undisclosed (Out)
Cooper Hodges – Knee (Out)
Christian Braswell – Hamstring (Out)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Anthony McFarland Jr. – Knee (Questionable)
Renell Wren – Achilles (Out)
Cameron Heyward – Groin (Questionable)
Pat Freiermuth – Hamstring (Out)
Levi Wallace – Foot (Questionable)
Alfonzo Graham – Shoulder (Out)
Cory Trice Jr. – Knee (Out)
Joey Porter Jr. – Calf (Questionable)
Larry Ogunjobi – Shoulder (Questionable)
Nate Herbig – Illness (Probable)
Diontae Johnson – Hamstring (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: Jacksonville Jaguars

On offense, the Jaguars are ranked 8th in the league at 24.7 points per game. They will need a strong offensive performance in order to pull out the win as 2.5-point underdogs. For the season, Lawrence is averaging 234 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 11th among quarterbacks. Lawrence comes in with a passer rating of 92.8 and is averaging 10.2 yards per completion. Christian Kirk has been targeted 55 times this season and has caught 39 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 474 receiving yards. On the ground, the Jaguars have carried the ball an average of 29.6 times per game and currently rank 13th in rushing yards. Their average rushing yards per attempt is 3.8.

Keys To Victory: Pittsburgh Steelers

Offensively, the Steelers have an average of 17.2 points per game, which is 24th in the NFL. An interesting note heading into the game is the fact that Pittsburgh is a below-average unit in passing yards per game. Yet, they have put together one of the better yards per completion figures in the NFL at 10 YPC. With 81.3 rushing yards per game, the Steelers hold the 28th spot in the NFL. This average is coming on an average of 24.3 rushing attempts (21st).

Betting Trends

Jacksonville has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 5-0.
The Steelers are 2-1 ATS in their last three home games and 2-1 straight-up.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Steelers have a strong straight up record of 3-0. In addition, their ATS record was 3-0 in these scenarios.
As the betting favorite, the Jaguars have an ATS mark of just 4-6 in their last ten games. Jacksonville posted a straight-up mark of 5-5 in these matchups.