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Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview

Stefon Diggs

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -5.5 | Total Points: 48.5

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Bills, the Jaguars have a .500 record at 2-2. The Jaguars are coming off a win after defeating the Falcons with a final score of 23-7. As 3.5-point favorites against the Falcons, the Jaguars picked up an ATS win. In their most recent game against Atlanta, the pre-game over/under line was set at 42.5 leading the under to hit with a combined total of 30 points.

As the Bills prepare for this AFC matchup, the team has an overall record of 3-1. This includes riding a current three-game win streak. Against AFC opponents, they have a record of 2-1. The Bills had the Dolphins as their opponent in week 4. This game ended in a 48-20 win for the Bills. As 3-point favorites against the Dolphins, the Bills picked up an ATS win. Combining for 68 points with Miami, the team’s exceeded the over/under line of 52.5.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills History

In the last three head-to-head matchups, the Jaguars are averaging 13 points per game, compared to the Bills at 11. These figures have led to Jacksonville posting a record of 2-1.

  • Jacksonville has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 15. The team also performed well vs the spread at 5-0.
  • In their last five home games, Buffalo has averaged 28 points per game while allowing 14. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread.
  • Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Bills have a straight up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs the spread was just 1-2.
  • The Jaguars have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.

Notable Injuries

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Dawuane Smoot – Achilles (Questionable)
  • Jamal Agnew – Quad (Questionable)
  • Zay Jones – Knee (Questionable)
  • Gregory Junior – Hamstring (Out)
  • Devin Lloyd – Thumb (Out)
  • Chris Claybrooks – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
  • Jaylon Moore – Knee (Out)
  • DaVon Hamilton – Back (Out)
  • Folorunso Fatukasi – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Christian Braswell – Hamstring (Out)
  • Antonio Johnson – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Parker Washington – Knee (Out)
  • Ventrell Miller – Achilles (Out)
  • Leonard Taylor – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Cooper Hodges – Knee (Out)

Buffalo Bills

  • Christian Benford – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Greg Rousseau – Foot (Out)
  • Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
  • Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
  • Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
  • Von Miller – Knee (Questionable)
  • Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
  • Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Jacksonville Jaguars

If the Jaguars are going to pull off the win as road underdogs, they will be looking for a big game out of quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the league’s 20th ranked scoring offense. For the season, Lawrence is averaging 235 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 14th among quarterbacks. Lawrence comes in with a passer rating of 89.0 and is averaging 9.8 yards per completion. Christian Kirk has been targeted 35 times this season, and has caught 24 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 257 receiving yards. Per attempt, the Jaguars are averaging 3.7 yards while carrying the ball an average of 28 times per contest. In terms of yardage, they are 18th in the league.

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

With an average of 34.8 points per contest, the Buffalo offense currently ranks 2nd in the league. With a passer rating of 106.6, Josh Allen is 6th at the position. This figure has come while throwing for 1048 yards and nine passing touchdowns. Buffalo comes into the game with one of the better rush attacks in the NFL, averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. This strong figure has led to the team ranking 8th in yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends

  • Jacksonville has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 27 points per game while allowing 17. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
  • When looking at their past ten home matchups, Buffalo has an ATS record of 5-5 while averaging 25 per game. The team went 7-3 overall in these games.
  • Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Buffalo has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
  • As the betting favorite, the Jaguars have an ATS record of 3-2 in their last five games. In these matchups their, straight up record was 4-1.


  • Buffalo Bills 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 24
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