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Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots Pick and Preview

Michael Pittman Jr

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Colts -2 | Total Points: 43

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Patriots, the Colts have a below .500 record at 4-5. The Colts came out on top in their previous game against the Panthers, with the game ending in a score of 27-13. Against the spread, the Colts’ 14-point win was enough to cover as 1.5-point favorites. The under hit in the Colts’ most recent game, where the teams’ combined total was 40 points. The line prior to the game stood at 44.5.

This week, the Patriots will look to snap their current two-game losing streak with a victory over the Colts. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 2-7. The Patriots are coming off a game where they were defeated by the Commanders with a final score of 20-17. Along with their outright defeat, the Patriots couldn’t cover the spread despite being favored by 2.5. The under hit in the Patriots’ most recent game, as the team’s combined for 37 points. The line going into the game was 40.5.

Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots History

In their only head-to-head matchup last season, the Patriots won by a score of 26-3. With their combined 29 points, the Colts and Patriots stayed below the over/under line of 40. The Patriots covered the spread in this matchup. Offensively, the Patriots finished with 133 passing yards and 70 rushing yards in their win over the Colts. As for Indianapolis, they ended the game with 121 yards of total offense.

The last ten head-to-head matchups between the Patriots and Colts have gone in favor of the Patriots, putting together a record of 9-1. It is worth noting that even though the Patriots have gone 2-1 vs. the spread in the three most recent matchups vs. the Colts, they are just 1-2 the last three times they hosted the Colts.

Notable Injuries

Indianapolis Colts

  • Jake Witt – Hip (Out)
  • Titus Leo – Undisclosed (Out)
  • JuJu Brents – Quadriceps (Out)
  • Dallis Flowers – Achilles (Out)
  • Josh Downs – Knee (Questionable)
  • Evan Hull – Knee (Out)
  • Anthony Richardson – Shoulder (Out)
  • Daniel Scott – Knee (Out)
  • Alec Pierce – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Drew Ogletree – Foot (Out)
  • Jelani Woods – Hamstring (Out)
  • Isaac Taylor-Stuart – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Danny Pinter – Ankle (Out)
  • Zaire Franklin – Knee (Questionable)
  • Genard Avery – Knee (Out)
  • Tony Brown – Concussion (Probable)
  • Ashton Dulin – Knee (Out)
  • Grover Stewart – Suspended (Out)

New England Patriots

  • Vederian Lowe – Ankle (Questionable)
  • J.C. Jackson – Personal (Out)
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Myles Bryant – Chest (Questionable)
  • Christian Barmore – Knee (Questionable)
  • Demario Douglas – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Jonathan Jones – Knee (Questionable)
  • Deatrich Wise Jr. – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
  • Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Out)
  • Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
  • Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
  • Trent Brown – Ankle (Out)
  • Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
  • Kendrick Bourne – Knee (Out)
  • Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
  • Riley Reiff – Knee (Out)
  • DeVante Parker – Head (Out)
  • Calvin Anderson – Illness (Out)
  • Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)

Keys To Victory: Indianapolis Colts

Indianapolis enters this week’s action, averaging 25.8 points per game, placing them 7th in the NFL. Quarterback Gardner Minshew has thrown for 1527 yards, with the team ranking 16th in yards per game through the air. This below-average production has come despite the team averaging 34.7 passing attempts. Indianapolis will need to continue getting receiver Michael Pittman Jr. involved, as he has caught 58 balls for a total of 593 receiving yards so far this year. A key to the team’s offensive success is their effectiveness on the ground. On the season, the Indianapolis offense is 11th in rush yards per attempt. This figure has led to an average of 123.3 yards per game.

Keys To Victory: New England Patriots

In what is projected to be a tightly contested game, Mac Jones will be looking to put together a strong performance for a New England offense ranked 31st in points per game. This season, he has completed 64.8% of his passes, leading an average of 206 yards per game in the passing attack. Overall, he is 17th among QB’s in passing yards and 8th in attempts. Against the Colts, the team will look to get receiver Kendrick Bourne involved in the passing game. This year, he is averaging 6.9 targets per game, leading to an overall receiving yards total of 406. At 86.9 rushing yards per game, the Patriots are currently ranked 28th in the NFL. In terms of attempts, they are carrying the ball an average of 23.2 times per game, which is 26th.

Betting Trends

  • Across the Colts’ last ten road games, the team averaged 20 points per game while allowing 28. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 4-6 straight-up.
  • Although New England has a straight-up record of 1-4 in their last five home games, they have not held up as well vs the spread going 1-4. The team averaged 15 points per game in these games.
  • Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-2. But, their mark vs. the spread was just 1-2.
  • The last ten games that Indianapolis was favored, they have an ATS mark of 2-8 while going 2-7-1 straight up.


  • Indianapolis Colts 23 – New England Patriots 22
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