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Eagles vs. Colts Pick and Preview Week 11

Miles Sanders

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Indianapolis Colts Pick and Preview

Non-Conference NFL Matchup

Point Spread: Colts +6.5 | Total Points: 45.0

Through 9 games, the Eagles are an above .500 team with an overall record of 8-1. This mark places them 1st in the NFC. Heading into week 11, the Philadelphia Eagles are looking to bounce back from a divisional loss to the Commanders by a score of 32-21. Philadelphia lost the game, even though they entered the game as -11.0 point favorites. With their combined 53 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 43.

Leading into their week 11 AFC South matchup against Philadelphia, the Colts have an overall record of 4-5-1. Last week, the Colts knocked off the Raiders by a score of 25-20, giving them an important win over an AFC opponent. Going into last week’s matchup, Indianapolis was 4.5-point underdogs on the spread. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 45 points, which surpassed the betting line of 41.

Eagles vs. Colts History

The two teams did not play each other in the 2021-2022 regular season. Across the previous 3 matchups between Indianapolis and Philadelphia, the Eagles have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been close, with Philadelphia averaging 25 points and Indianapolis at 22.

The last 3 times that the Colts have hosted Philadelphia, they have a record of 1-2. When looking at past performance vs the spread in this series, Indianapolis has performed well at 4-1.

Notable Injuries

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Britain Covey (Thigh) Questionable
  • Josh Jobe (Thigh) Questionable
  • Janarius Robinson (Ankle) Questionable
  • DeVonta Smith (Knee) Questionable
  • A.J. Brown (Ankle) Questionable
  • Haason Reddick (Thigh) Questionable
  • Jason Kelce (Ankle) Questionable
  • Robert Quinn (Back) Questionable
  • Fletcher Cox (Foot) Questionable

Indianapolis Colts

  • Jelani Woods (Shoulder) Questionable
  • Deon Jackson (Knee) Questionable
  • Kwity Paye (Ankle) Questionable
  • Isaiah Rodgers Sr. (Illness) Questionable
  • Kenny Moore II (Illness) Questionable
  • Zaire Franklin (Illness) Questionable
  • Yannick Ngakoue (Back) Probable
  • Luke Rhodes (Calf) Questionable
  • DeForest Buckner (Neck) Probable
  • Ryan Kelly (Knee) Probable

Keys To Victory: Philadelphia Eagles

Led by quarterback Jalen Hurts, the team’s 3rd ranked scoring offense will need to be on top of their game to cover the spread as 6.5-point betting favorites. Hurts is averaging 246.33 passing yards per game through the air for the season. This figure has him sitting 15th among quarterbacks. Hurts is coming off a 175 passing yard performance, leading to a passer rating of 94.23. A.J. Brown has been targeted 74 times and has caught 59.5% of the passes thrown his way. He comes into the game with a total of 725 receiving yards.

If the Eagles offense continues to run the ball well, their ability to control the clock will make things difficult for the Colts. This season, Philadelphia is ranked 6th in the league in rush yards per game at 142.67.

Keys To Victory: Indianapolis Colts

On the season, Indianapolis has struggled to put up points, averaging just 15.7 points per game, placing them 30th in the league. The team’s lackluster offense has contributed 44.0% of the scoring in their games, leading to an average point differential of -4.6. So far, the Colts are averaging 226.4 yards per game through the air, ranking 14th in the NFL. However, if they are going to maintain their usual level of production, they will need to do so against an Eagles defense that has been strong against the pass. This season, Matt Ryan has thrown for 2230 passing yards on a completion percentage of 68.9. His current passer rating of 86.83 is well below average compared to other quarterbacks. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Michael Pittman Jr., who comes into the game with 603 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 40.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.

Through 10 games the rushing attack has not been a big part of the Colts offensive as they are averaging just 98.7 yards per game on the ground. However, the unit could be in line for an above-average performance, as the Eagles’ defense has been inconsistent in their ability to defend the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Through 7 games, he has rushed for a total of 609 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Philadelphia is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Philadelphia is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • Philadelphia is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Prediction

The Eagles should bounce back, but won’t blow out the Colts this week. Take the Eagles ML and Colts with the points.

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