Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview

Posted on November 10, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -7 | Total Points: 46.5

Heading into this week’s matchup against Buffalo, the Broncos have won two straight games and have a current record of 3-5. Most recently, the Broncos hosted the Chiefs. The game ended in a 24-9 win for Denver. In addition to winning straight-up, the Broncos covered the spread as 7 point underdogs. The under bettors were successful in the Broncos’ most recent game, with a combined total of 33 points. The game’s betting line was 45.5.

Heading into the game, the Bills are the Bills are the 8th ranked team in the AFC with a record of 5-4. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 2-4. The Bills traveled to take on the Bengals in week 9 and fell by a score of 24-18. With a 6-point loss, the Bills added a loss to their ATS record as well. They were 1.5-point underdogs prior to the game. The under hit in the Bills’ most recent game, as the team’s combined for 42 points. The line going into the game was 51.

Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills History

In the last three games between Denver and Buffalo, the Bills have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 19 points per contest. Across the last three head-to-head matchups, Buffalo is averaging 31 points compared to Denver at 12.

Through their last three road contests, the Broncos offense has averaged 19 points per game while allowing an average of 39. Denver posted an overall record of 1-2 while going 0-2-1 ATS.
Across the Bills’ last ten home games, the team averaged 24 points per game while allowing 18. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 4-6, while going 6-4 straight-up.
As the betting underdog, the Broncos have an ATS mark of just 1-2 in their last three games. Denver posted a straight-up mark of 1-2 in these matchups.
Although the Bills have a strong straight-up record in their last five games as the betting favorite, they have not done as well vs the spread going 1-4.

Notable Injuries

Denver Broncos

Alex Palczewski – Hand (Out)
Brandon Johnson – Hamstring (Out)
Ben Powers – Ankle (Probable)
Baron Browning – Wrist (Probable)
Eyioma Uwazurike – Suspension (Out)
Jalen Virgil – Meniscus (Out)
Greg Dulcich – Hamstring (Out)
Jonas Griffith – Knee (Out)
Caden Sterns – Knee (Out)
Tim Patrick – Achilles (Out)
K’Waun Williams – Ankle (Out)
Kareem Jackson – Suspension (Out)

Buffalo Bills

Jordan Poyer – Shin (Questionable)
Leonard Floyd – Illness (Questionable)
Josh Allen – Shoulder (Probable)
Kameron Cline – Undisclosed (Out)
Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
Terrel Bernard – Concussion (Questionable)
Christian Benford – Hamstring (Questionable)
Baylon Spector – Hamstring (Questionable)
Kaiir Elam – Ankle (Out)
Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
Dawson Knox – Wrist (Out)
Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
Micah Hyde – Arm (Questionable)
A.J. Klein – Back (Questionable)
DaQuan Jones – Pectoral (Out)

Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos

If the Broncos are going to pull off the win as road underdogs, they will be looking for a big game out of quarterback Russell Wilson and the league’s 16th-ranked scoring offense. For the season, Wilson is averaging 201 passing yards per game through the air. This figure has him sitting 22nd among quarterbacks. Wilson comes in with a passer rating of 101.7 and is averaging 10.5 yards per completion. Courtland Sutton has been targeted 46 times this season and has caught 33 passes this season. He comes into the game with a total of 380 receiving yards. The Broncos are currently 11th in the NFL with 116.8 rushing yards per game. This has come on an average of 24.2 rushing attempts (23rd).

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

Buffalo gets set to take on Denver, averaging 26.7 points per game. Josh Allen and the Bills passing game figures to be a key part of the gameplan as the team is throwing the ball at a rate above the league average. For the season, Allen has thrown for 2423 yards through the air and has Buffalo sitting 5th in passing yards per game. Heading into the game, the team’s top receiver, Stefon Diggs who through 9 games, has 834 receiving yards this season. This season, the Bills have put together a strong offense despite sitting below the league average in both rush yards and attempts.

Betting Trends

Through their last five road contests, the Broncos’ offense has averaged 19 points per game while allowing an average of 39. Denver posted an overall record of 1-4 while going 1-3-1 ATS.
In their last ten games at home, the Bills have a straight-up record of 6-4 while going 4-6 vs. the spread. The team averaged 24 points per game in this stretch.
In their last three games as the betting underdog, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 1-2 and an ATS mark of 1-2.
Across their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Bills have an overall record of 3-2 while going 1-4 against the spread.