Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans Pick and Preview

Davis Mills

Non-Conference NFL Matchup

Point Spread: Texans +3.0 | Total Points: 40.5

Heading into week 11 action, the Commanders are a .500 team with an overall record of 5-5. Last week, the Commanders picked up a game in the NFC East, as they took down the Eagles by a score of 32-21. Heading into the game, the Commanders were 11.0 point underdogs, resulting in both a straight-up and ATS victory. Going into the game, the over-under total was 43 points, which the teams surpassed.

As the Texans prepare for their AFC South matchup against Washington, they have an overall record of 1-7-1 and are in the midst of 4 game losing streak. HOU AFC South NFC East Heading into week 10, the Houston Texans are looking to bounce back from a loss to the Giants by a score of 24-16, giving them a loss over a non-conference win. Houston also failed to cover the spread with the loss, as they were 5.0 underdogs. The team’s combined scoring of 40 points fell below the posted betting line of 41.

Quick Links For Week 11

Commanders vs. Texans History

The two teams did not play each other in the 2021-2022 regular season. Across the previous 3 matchups between Washington and Houston, the Texans have played well, sitting at 3-0. However, the average point differential between the two teams has been close, with Houston averaging 23 points and Washington at 18.

The last 3 times that the Texans have hosted Washington, they have a record of 2-1. In terms of betting, Washington holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 3-1-1 in the previous 5 meetings.

Notable Injuries

Washington Commanders

  • Armani Rogers (Knee) Questionable
  • Cole Holcomb (Foot) Questionable
  • Tyler Larsen (Back) Questionable
  • Logan Thomas (Rib) Questionable
  • Curtis Samuel (Shin) Questionable
  • J.D. McKissic (Neck) Questionable
  • David Mayo (Hamstring) Questionable

Houston Texans

  • Neville Hewitt (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Maliek Collins (Chest) Questionable
  • Christian Kirksey (Neck) Probable
  • Brandin Cooks (Hip/wrist) Questionable
  • Dare Ogunbowale (Foot) Questionable
  • Jalen Reeves-Maybin (Groin) Probable
  • Nico Collins (Groin) Probable
  • Michael Dwumfour (Rib) Questionable
  • Derek Stingley Jr. (Hamstring) Questionable
  • Kenyon Green (Shoulder) Probable

Keys To Victory: Washington Commanders

As the Commanders prepare to take on the Texans, they are looking to put together a strong game in the passing attack. Taylor Heinicke has the team ranked 22nd in passing yards per game and is ranked 36th among quarterbacks in yards through the air. So far, the team is averaging just 35.3 attempts per game. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin is pacing the Commanders with 737 receiving yards. This week, he is facing the 4th ranked secondary in terms of yards allowed to wide receivers.

In terms of production in the run game, the Commanders are 20th in rush yards per contest. However, they have a good matchup against a Houston defense, giving up a 181.78 yards per game on the ground. Antonio Gibson is projected to receiving a majority of the carries for the team and is averaging 3.6 yards per attempt.

Keys To Victory: Houston Texans

If the Texans are going to come home with a road win, they would benefit from putting together a better offensive performance than their season average of just 16.56 points per game. The Texans struggling offense has led to an average scoring margin of -6.44 points per game. The matchup between the Texans’ passing attack and Commanders secondary will be a matchup to keep an eye on as both units rank near the league average in several statistical categories. So far, Houston’s offense is averaging 199.44 yards per game through the air. The Texans will be looking for a strong performance out of quarterback Davis Mills as his current passer rating of 81.67 is below average compared to other QBs. So far, he has thrown for a total of 1975 yards through the air on a completion percentage of 62.4%. One thing to keep an eye on that might affect the Houston offense is the availabilty of wide receiver Brandin Cooks as he is listed as questionable on the injury report. So far, Cooks leads the team with 391 receiving yards while catching 60.0% of the balls thrown his way.

This week, don’t expect the Texans to find much success on the ground, as they are not only one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, but they have a tough matchup against a Commanders defense giving up just 111.4 yards per game against the run. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Dameon Pierce, who is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Through 9 games, he has rushed for a total of 772 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

  • Washington is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
  • Washington is 2-2-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
  • Washington is 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
  • Washington is 5-4-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.


We like the Texans to spoil this week. The Commanders are on the road on a short week and may be overconfident in week 11. Take the Texans with the points or moneyline.

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