Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts Pick and Preview

Posted on October 20, 2023

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Browns -3 | Total Points: 40.5

Heading into the game, the Browns are the Browns are the 7th ranked team in the AFC with a record of 3-2. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 2-2. The last time Cleveland played, the Browns beat the 49ers by a final score of 19-17. Going into the game, the Browns were actually 9.5-point underdogs. This resulted in an ATS win for the Browns. In their game vs. San Francisco, the Browns and 49ers both ended with an over/under push. The line going into the game was 36.

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Browns, the Colts have a .500 record at 3-3. In the previous game, the Colts lost by a score of 37-20 against the Jaguars. With a 17-point loss, the Colts added a loss to their ATS record as well. They were 4-point underdogs prior to the game. The over/under line for the game was 44 points, and the combined total points scored went over, reaching 57 points.

Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts History

Heading into this week’s matchup, the Colts have the edge in their recent matchups against Cleveland, posting a record of 2-1. In the last three games, Indianapolis is averaging 26 points per game compared to 28 for the Browns.

Across the Browns’ last three road games, the team averaged 20 points per game while allowing 21. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2, while going 1-2 straight-up.
When looking at their past five home matchups, Indianapolis has an ATS record of 3-2 while averaging 23 per game. The team went 2-3 overall in these games.
Indianapolis has done well both straight up and vs. the spread when favored to win the game, going 3-2 SU and 3-2 ATS in their last five games.
Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Cleveland has an ATS mark of 5-5 while going 5-5 straight up.

Notable Injuries

Cleveland Browns

Kareem Hunt – Thigh (Questionable)
Harrison Bryant – Hip (Questionable)
Michael Dunn – Calf (Out)
Greg Newsome II – Hamstring (Questionable)
Sione Takitaki – Hamstring (Out)
Jacob Phillips – Pectoral (Out)
Thomas Graham Jr. – Ankle (Out)
Daylen Baldwin – Hamstring (Out)
Michael Woods II – Achilles (Out)
Dawson Deaton – Knee (Out)
Nick Chubb – Knee (Out)
Deshaun Watson – Right Shoulder (Questionable)
Jack Conklin – Knee (Out)
Jakeem Grant Sr. – Knee (Out)
Jordan Kunaszyk – Knee (Out)
Drew Forbes – Illness (Out)

Indianapolis Colts

Jake Witt – Hip (Out)
Titus Leo – Undisclosed (Out)
Daniel Scott – Knee (Out)
Anthony Richardson – Shoulder (Out)
Evan Hull – Knee (Out)
Grover Stewart – Suspended (Out)
Kylen Granson – Concussion (Out)
Danny Pinter – Ankle (Out)
Dallis Flowers – Achilles (Out)
Jelani Woods – Hamstring (Out)
Isaac Taylor-Stuart – Undisclosed (Out)
Alec Pierce – Shoulder (Questionable)
Genard Avery – Knee (Out)
Ashton Dulin – Knee (Out)
Braden Smith – Hip/wrist (Out)

Keys To Victory: Cleveland Browns

The Browns come in with an average of 19 points per game, which is 19th in the NFL. Deshaun Watson is starting for the Browns in this game. Over the course of three games, he has completed 63.7% of his passes and currently ranks 31st among quarterbacks in passing yards. His passer rating stands at 87.8. Points have been hard to come by for the Cleveland offense, despite the team averaging 4.4 yards per carry, good for 9th in the league. On average, the Browns are averaging 147 yards per game on the ground.

Keys To Victory: Indianapolis Colts

Against Cleveland, the Colts will be on the attack in the passing game, as they are throwing the ball an average of 37 times per contest. Their preference to air the ball out has led to the team ranking 11th in points per game (23.3). Gardner Minshew comes into the game with 882 passing yards on a completion percentage of 65.2%. Indianapolis will need to continue getting receiver Michael Pittman Jr. involved, as he has caught 40 balls for a total of 406 receiving yards so far this year. A key aspect to the team’s strong offensive play has been their ability to run the ball. This year, the Colts are near the top of the league in both attempts and yards per game. Currently, the team is averaging 116.7 yards per game on the ground.

Betting Trends

Through their last ten road contests, the Browns offense has averaged 20 points per game while allowing an average of 24. Cleveland posted an overall record of 3-7 while going 4-5-1 ATS.
In their last three home games, Indianapolis has averaged 24 points per game while allowing 25. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Colts have a straight-up record of 3-7 and an ATS mark of 4-6.
Through their last five games as the favorite, the Browns have an ATS record of 3-2 and a straight up mark of 3-2.