Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders Pick and Preview
AFC West Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Raiders +9.0 | Total Points: 52.5
This week, the Chiefs travel to take on the Raiders in an AFC West matchup. Heading into the game, the Chiefs have won 4 straight games leading to an overall record of 13-3. Kansas City will be looking to add another win to their resume, as they picked up a division win over the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs won by a score of 27-24. Even though Kansas City picked up the win, they failed to cover the spread as -12.5 point favorites. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 51 points, which surpassed the betting line of 46.
As the Raiders prepare for their AFC West matchup against Kansas City, they have an overall record of 6-10 and are in the midst of 2 game losing streak. This week, the Las Vegas Raiders are hoping to get back in the win column after falling 37-34 to the San Francisco 49ers. Even though Las Vegas lost the game, they were able to keep things closer than expected, as they were 9.5-point underdogs. With their combined 71 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 41.
See all NFL Picks for week 18 here.
Chiefs vs Raiders History
The last time these two teams played came back in week 5, where the Chiefs picked up a 30-29 win over the Raiders. The Kansas City defense played a major role in the win, as they finished the game with 3 sacks, including generating hits on the quarterback at a rate of 13.0%. Even though the Chiefs walked away with the straight-up win, they were not able to cover the spread as 7.0-point favorites. The over-under betting line going into the game was set at 51.5 points. The two teams combined to surpass this figure with a total of 59.
In the last 3 games between Las Vegas and Kansas City, the Chiefs have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 22 points per contest. Across the last 3 head-to-head matchups, Kansas City is averaging 39 points compared to Las Vegas at 17. The Chiefs will be looking to continue their recent success as the road team vs the Raiders, as they have a record of 3-0 in their past 3 meetings. In terms of betting, Las Vegas holds a recent edge vs the spread, going 3-2 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 61, leading to an over-under mark of 5-0.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Skyy Moore (Hand) Questionable
- L’Jarius Sneed (Hip) Questionable
- Mecole Hardman (Pelvis) Questionable
- Harrison Butker (Back) Questionable
- Joe Thuney (Ankle) Questionable
Las Vegas Raiders
- Davante Adams (Illness) Probable
- Jarrett Stidham (Elbow) Probable
- Josh Jacobs (Hip/oblique) Questionable
- AJ Cole (Illness) Probable
- Divine Deablo (Forearm) Questionable
- Darien Butler (Concussion) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City gets set to take on the Raiders, averaging 29.1 points per game. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game figures to be a key part of the gameplan as the team is throwing the ball at a rate above the league average. For the season, Mahomes has thrown for 5048 yards through the air, and has Kansas City sitting 1st in passing yards per game. Heading into the game, the team’s top receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is matchuped up against the league’s 15th-ranked secondary. For the year, he has been targeted 99 times for 898 yards.
A key to the Chiefs’ chances in the game is if they will be able to put together a stronger effort on the ground. The team would benefit from being able to control the time of possession, as the Raiders’ offense is one of the better scoring units in the NFL. So far, Kansas City is averaging 122.5 yards per game on the ground.
Keys To Victory: Las Vegas Raiders
Compared to other NFL teams, the Raiders offense has performed well this year, averaging 23.9 points per game (12th). Across their 16 games, the team has accounted for exactly half of the total scoring. Look for the Raiders to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Chiefs defense giving up 223.5 yards per game vs the pass. For the season, Las Vegas quarterback Jarrett Stidham is averaging 11.75 passing attempts per game and a passer rating of 99.3. This week, he is facing off against the NFL’s 18th-ranked defense at defending the pass. Davante Adams leads the team with 1443 receiving yards while catching 55.6% of the balls thrown his way.
So far, the ground game has not been a huge part of the Raiders’ offense, as their current production of 122.5 yards per game places them near the NFL average. This week could be a struggle for the unit, as the Chiefs have been tough to run against this season. An area of concern for the Raiders will be if their top running back Josh Jacobs is able to play as he is listed as questionable on the injury report. This year, Jacobs has rushed 1608 yards while averaging 5.0 yards per attempt.
- Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Kansas City is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Kansas City is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
- Kansas City is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
This game does matter. The Chiefs need the win and the Raiders players are fighting for jobs next year. The Raiders would also love to stick-it to a division rival. We like the Chiefs to win but the Raiders to cover.