Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads to Houston, Texas, this week for the Cadence Bank Houston Open, a PGA Tour tournament that has been played since 1946. We again have 132 players competing this week, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 will play rounds 3 and 4 on the weekend.
There’s $8.4M to be won this week, the winner gets $1.512M and also receives 500 FedEx Cup points. Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course is 7,412 yards in length, is a par 70, and the big greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -15.4, but just the last two years here have used Memorial Park and that average is just -11.5, so expect something around that number this week. Place bets on golfers who are strong putters on Bermuda, are solid around the green, are accurate from the tee blocks, are sound off the tee, and good tee to green.
Three questions that are relevant to the Cadence Bank Houston Open this week:
- Strong putting is absolutely huge here to achieve success, which 10 players have been the top putters over their last 24 rounds? Taylor Montgomery, Maverick McNealy, Sam Burns, Harry Hall, Tony Finau, Eric Cole, Francesco Molinari, S.H. Kim, Dean Burmester, and Justin Rose.
- Which players have the most top 10’s at Mayakoba over the last five years? Russell Henley has three, and a couple of players have two including Sam Burns and Sepp Straka. Burns is the only player with top 10’s here on this track between 2021 and 2020.
- Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total here (4 rounds minimum) since 2017? Hideki Matsuyama, Sepp Straka, Adam Long, Russell Henley, Brandon Wu, Zac Blair, Luke List, Austin Cook, Maverick McNealy, and Scottie Scheffler.
Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and won’t bet. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable or break even in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.
5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting
Scottie Scheffler (+550) – I really like that this tournament is a homecoming of sorts for the now 2nd highest-ranked golfer in the world – if he wins this week, then he will regain the top spot from Rory McIlroy. He finished co-runner-up here a year ago, was T3 last week in Mexico, and everything seems to align for him this week to flourish. I’m betting him to win, finish top 5, and top 10. The only negative is his odds are fairly short, so you got to bet him fairly aggressively for good payouts.
Sam Burns (+4500) – 7’s are wild with Burns right now since he has back-to-back T7’s here and he finished T7 in his most recent start at THE CJ CUP in a fairly strong field. He’s a strong putter, flashes brilliance at times, and he’s the type of player that I’m all over this week. I’m betting him to win and to finish top 10 with a good dollar amount on the latter.
Maverick McNealy (+1600) – Putters are firmly in play this week since there’s only one other tournament on the PGA Tour that’s more important from a putting perspective, so this event is typically a putting contest and I like my odds with McNealy. He has four straight top 18’s and two of those were T10’s, and he has two top 20’s here over the last two years. I’m going to bet him well as a top 20 this week, and might put a small bet on the top 10 as well.
Aaron Wise (+3000) – He has finished no worse than T26 here since 2020 and had a T11 two years ago. Wise had a 6th at THE CJ CUP two starts ago and has five top 15’s in his last seven starts. He certainly can contend this week, and I’ll be on the outright for Aaron along with the top 10, as well.
Taylor Montgomery (+8000) – He just amazes me and I’m not likely the only one as he has nine straight top 15’s if you include his Korn Ferry Tour starts, and seven of those were inside the top 10 which is unreal. He’s such a strong putter, and it seems like he could really thrive this week given his flat stick is absolute fire these days. I’m going to bet him to finish top 10 and top 20, and I’m going to consider an outright wager on him as well.
5 Players That I Might Bet
David Lingmerth (+15000) – I thought Lingmerth was done years ago but he has surfaced as of late with two straight top 11’s, plus he won on the Korn Ferry Tour in the Summer. I’ll likely bet him to finish top 40 this week and will look at his top 20 number as well.
Adam Long (+8000) – I’m not really that impressed with his recent play but he has two T11’s here over the last two years, so he plays well here and I’m intrigued about cashing in on him this week. I’ll probably take his top 40 bet and might consider the top 20.
Russell Henley (+8000) – He won last week with ease, has won this tournament before albeit not on this track, and he had a T7 here a year ago, so Henley looks to be an interesting candidate from a betting perspective this week. I’ll think about the top 10 bet for him and might dive into a top 20, but I need to do some more research before pulling the trigger on Russell this week.
Denny McCarthy (+8000) – If it all comes down to putting this week, then McCarthy is appetizing as he has been an incredible roller of the rock over the last few years on the PGA Tour. He’s coming off a T6 in Bermuda and had a T11 here a year ago, so the stars appear to align well for Denny this week. I’ll likely end up betting him to finish top 20 and might consider a top 10 wager, but his ball striking isn’t overly impressive which limits his upside significantly.
Will Gordon (+4000) – Gordon had a T3 last week in Mexico, he won on the Korn Ferry Tour in August, and has five top 36’s over his last six starts. He seems to be a good top 40 bet to me, but I want to give it some more thought before adding him to my betting card this week.
5 Other Interesting Bets
Taylor Moore to beat Keith Mitchell (+100) – When I place bets on matchups, I want consistent performers and Moore is exactly that with twelve made cuts in his last thirteen starts and he has three top 24’s in his last four starts. Mitchell is good about making the cut as well, but he missed the cut in his most recent start and his best finish over his last eight starts is a T31. I like Moore over Mitchell this week, and have already pulled the trigger on a bet.
Make/Miss Cut – To Make the Cut Parlay – Scheffler, Montgomery, Putnam, and Grillo (+110) – Here are four players who regularly play weekend golf. I like three of these types of bets this week, and this one is my favorite on DK. I highly recommend more than doubling your money on this wager this week.
Brandon Wu – Top 40 (+125) – Wu has finished inside the top 40 in four out of his last five starts, so he makes sense as a top 40 wager this week. I need to do some more research on this one before moving forward, but I feel pretty good about it right now.
Tournament Winning Margin – 2 Strokes Exactly (+350) – Over the past two years the winner has won by two strokes. Will lightning strike thrice? Hard to say, but it may be worth putting down a couple of bucks on this wager and you can hedge with one stroke if you’d like at +250.
Player to Win Wire to Wire – Scottie Scheffler (+4000) – I’m quite high on Scheffler this week given he tore it up last Sunday and holds the course record here in his native State of Texas. It’s a long shot but maybe betting Scottie to go wire to wire isn’t such a bad idea, and if you bet $2.50, DK would pay you just over 100 bucks.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
Jeremy has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 successful years, and actively plays golf, hockey, baseball, and table tennis. He has over three years of fantasy sports writing experience – including writing a daily fantasy sports strategies and tools eBook in 2016. He is an active member of DraftKings – specializing in NHL and PGA contests over the past 5 years. He enjoys spending time with his family, traveling to hot places in the frigid Canadian Winters, binge-watching on Netflix, and starting and managing digital businesses.