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Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots Pick and Preview

Josh Allen

AFC East Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Bills -8.5 | Total Points: 40

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Patriots, the Bills have an above .500 record at 4-2. The Bills hosted the Giants in week 6. The Bills finished the game with a 14-9 win. Despite winning the game, the Bills did not cover the spread vs. the Giants, as they were favored by 15.5. In the matchup with New York, the pre-game over/under line was 43.5. The under hit, as they combined for 23 points.

This week, the Patriots will look to snap their current three-game losing streak with a victory over the Bills. Heading into action, the team has a below .500 record of 1-5. The Patriots played on the road vs. the Raiders in week 6, but they came up short, losing by a score of 21-17. In addition to their 4-point loss, the Patriots also lost vs. the spread. They were 3-point underdogs heading into the game. In their most recent game, the over/under line was 41.5 points. By combining for 38 points, the under hit.

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots History

Last season saw the Bills put together a 2-0 record in the two head-to-head matchups between the teams. The over/under mark in these matchups was 1-1, with the teams combining to average 46 points per contest. When looking at the spread, the Bills went 2-0 in their head-to-head matchups. The Bills’ offense finished their head-to-head matchups with 341 yards per game of offense. As for the Patriots, they averaged 291.5 yards offensively.

The Bills and Patriots did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Bills have a record of 3-0. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 3-0. These games averaged a combined total of 51 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Notable Injuries

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh Allen – Shoulder (Probable)
  • Kaiir Elam – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Ed Oliver – Toe (Out)
  • Cam Lewis – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Quintin Morris – Ankle (Out)
  • Greg Rousseau – Foot (Probable)
  • Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
  • Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
  • Dane Jackson – Foot (Probable)
  • DaQuan Jones – Pectoral (Out)
  • Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
  • Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
  • Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
  • Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)

New England Patriots

  • Kayshon Boutte – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Christian Barmore – Knee (Questionable)
  • Trent Brown – Chest (Questionable)
  • David Andrews – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Hunter Henry – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Jabrill Peppers – Knee (Questionable)
  • Davon Godchaux – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Kyle Dugger – Foot (Questionable)
  • Mike Onwenu – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Shaun Wade – Shoulder (Questionable)
  • Jack Jones – Hamstring (Questionable)
  • Keion White – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Demario Douglas – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Isaiah Bolden – Head (Out)
  • Josh Uche – Knee (Questionable)
  • Tre Nixon – Shoulder (Out)
  • Marcus Jones – Shoulder (Out)
  • Cole Strange – Knee (Questionable)
  • Tyrone Wheatley Jr. – Knee (Out)
  • Christian Gonzalez – Shoulder (Out)
  • Trey Flowers – Foot (Questionable)
  • Matthew Judon – Bicep (Out)
  • Cody Davis – Knee (Questionable)
  • Riley Reiff – Knee (Questionable)
  • Raekwon McMillan – Achilles (Out)
  • Jonathan Jones – Knee (Questionable)
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Daniel Ekuale – Bicep (Out)

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

At 28.8 points per contest, the Buffalo offense is 3rd in the league. A strength of this year’s team has been their offensive line, as they have only allowed sacks on 4.2% of the team’s passing attempts. This strong protection has helped the team average 256.7 yards per game through the air. Buffalo comes in with an average of 4.1 yards per rushing attempt and has an average of 27 attempts per game. In terms of total rushing yards, they are currently ranked 12th in the league.

Keys To Victory: New England Patriots

The Patriots come in with an average of 12 points per game on offense, which has them 27th in the NFL. Taking the field as the starting quarterback for the Patriots is Mac Jones. So far, he has completed 64.2% of his passes and is currently 19th among quarterbacks in passing yards. His current passer rating is 74.4. A major reason for the team’s lack of offense is their inability to generate production with the rushing attack. Heading into today’s game, the team’s below-average number of rush attempts has turned into an average of just 83.7 rushing yards per game.

Betting Trends

  • Buffalo has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 28 points per game while allowing 14. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • When looking at their past three home matchups, New England has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 11 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Patriots have a straight-up record of 1-9 and an ATS mark of 1-9.
  • The Bills have played well in their last five games as the betting favorite, going 4-1 straight up and 3-2 against the spread.


  • Buffalo Bills 25 – New England Patriots 21
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