Game Preview

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview

Patrick Mahomes

AFC Conference Matchup

Point Spread: Chiefs -1.5 | Total Points: 48.5

Coming into this week’s AFC matchup vs the Chiefs, the Bills have a .500 record at 6-6. The Bills are coming off a game where they were defeated by the Eagles with a final score of 37-34. In addition to their 3-point loss, the Bills also suffered a setback in their ATS record. They were 2.5-point underdogs at the start of the game. With a combined score of 71 points, the game surpassed the pre-game over/under line of 48.5.

Heading into the game, the Chiefs are the 3rd ranked team in the AFC with a record of 8-4. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 6-1. The Chiefs traveled to take on the Packers in week 13 and fell by a score of 27-19. In addition to their defeat in the game, the Chiefs also fell short of covering the spread as 5.5-point favorites. The game’s over/under line was 43.5 points, leading to the over hitting with a combined 46 points.

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs History

The Bills and Chiefs faced off one time last season with the Bills picking up a 24-20 win. In last year’s matchup, the Bills covered the spread, while the teams combined for 44 which was below the over/under line of 54.5 points. In the win, the Bills racked up 443 yards of total offense compared to the Chiefs at 387. The Bills rushed for 125 yards and threw for 318 in the game.

The Bills and Chiefs did not have any head-to-head matchups last season. But over the last three times playing each other, the Bills have a record of 2-1. The Bills also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 59 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-1.

Notable Injuries

Buffalo Bills

  • Justin Shorter – Hamstring (Out)
  • Tommy Doyle – Knee (Out)
  • Zach Davidson – Knee (Out)
  • Kameron Cline – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Kaiir Elam – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Matt Milano – Lower Leg (Out)
  • Nyheim Hines – Knee (Out)
  • Dawson Knox – Wrist (Questionable)
  • Damien Harris – Neck (Out)
  • Tre’Davious White – Achilles (Out)
  • DaQuan Jones – Pectoral (Out)

Kansas City Chiefs

  • Cole Christiansen – Hamstring (Out)
  • Nick Bolton – Wrist (Questionable)
  • Prince Tega Wanogho – Quad (Out)
  • Bryan Cook – Ankle (Questionable)
  • Nazeeh Johnson – Knee (Out)
  • Justyn Ross – Commissioner Exempt List (Out)
  • Jerick McKinnon – Groin (Probable)
  • Donovan Smith – Neck (Questionable)
  • Jody Fortson – Shoulder (Out)
  • Drue Tranquill – Concussion (Questionable)
  • Mecole Hardman Jr. – Thumb (Out)
  • Isiah Pacheco – Shoulder (Questionable)

Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills

In terms of offense, the Bills are at 27.3 points per game, ranking them 5th in the NFL. A key to the team’s success in the passing game is the fact that they are one of the elite units at pushing the ball down the field. So far, Buffalo is 7th in the NFL in yards per completion. This has led to an average of 260.9 yards per game through the air. The Bills come in with an average of 4.3 yards per rushing attempt while running the ball an average of 27.7 times per game. In terms of total rushing yardage, they currently rank 10th in the league.

Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs

On offense, the Chiefs are averaging 22.9 points per game, putting them 11th in the NFL. Kansas City will look to continue executing well in the passing attack, as they currently ranked 8th in the league in yards per game. This has come while dropping back to pass at a rate of 37.5 times per contest. When it comes to rushing, the Chiefs are averaging 4.2 yards per attempt while running the ball an average of 25.3 times per game. At 109.9 rushing yards per contest, they are 16th in the league.

Betting Trends

  • In their last five games away from home, the Bills have a straight-up record of 1-4 while going 1-4 vs. the spread. The team averaged 26 points per game in this stretch.
  • In their last ten games at home, the Chiefs have a straight-up record of 8-2 while going 5-5 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 25 points per game in these contests.
  • As the betting underdog, the Bills have an ATS mark of just 0-3 in their last three games. Buffalo posted a straight up mark of 0-3 in these matchups.
  • Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Chiefs have a straight up record of 7-3. But their mark vs the spread was just 6-4.


  • Kansas City Chiefs 28 – Buffalo Bills 25
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