AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Golf Betting Tips and Picks

Tom Hoge

Golf Betting Tips and Picks

ATT Pebble Beach Pro AmThe PGA Tour heads from Southern California to Northern California this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, and this event dates back 85 years to 1937 when Sam Snead beat George Von Elm with a score of -4 to win by four strokes. This tournament features a trio of courses including Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club – each player will play each of these tracks between Thursday and Saturday, and Pebble Beach will be used exclusively for round 4 on Sunday. We have another full field of 156 players this week, and there will be a cut line to deal with after round 3 on Saturday where the top 60 players plus ties move forward to play round 4 on Sunday.

There’s $9M on the line to be won this week, the winner banks $1.62M and also collects 500 FedEx Cup points. Pebble Beach is 6,972 yards in length and is a par 72, Spyglass Hill is 7,041 yards and is also a par 72, and Monterey Peninsula is 6,957 yards and is a par 71 – all three courses feature poa annua greens. The average winning score at this tournament over the past ten years is -17.8 –  I expect a number around -17 to -19 to take it on Sunday evening. The tournament record is held by Brandt Snedeker who won in 2015 with a score of -22. Place bets on golfers this week who hit a long ball off the tee, are solid on the greens, hit an accurate ball from the tee blocks, are solid off the tee, and hold their own tee to green.

Three questions that are relevant to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am this week:

  1. A strong off-the-tee game has proved to be fairly important here over the years, so which 10 players have been the best in this stat category over their last 24 rounds? Kevin Yu, Dean Burmester, Keith Mitchell, Trevor Cone, Will Gordon, Brent Grant, Sean O’Hair, Ben Griffin, Joel Dahmen, and Matthias Schmid.
  2. Which 10 players gained the most strokes total at this event since 2018? Kevin Streelman (19 rounds), Jordan Spieth (20 rounds), Troy Merritt (16 rounds), Taylor Moore (4 rounds), Maverick McNealy (15 rounds), Nick Taylor (19 rounds), Scott Stallings (18 rounds), Matthew NeSmith (11 rounds), David Lipsky (4 rounds), and Russell Knox (19 rounds).
  3. What’s my top bet for the week? I really like Matt Fitzpatrick at +130 to finish top 10 as he’s a top 10 monster, has succulent stats, and for the other reasons below in his write-up.

Below you will find players that I will bet, might bet, and five random bets that interest me. The odds come from DraftKings Sportsbook and are outright numbers. My betting strategy is to hedge quite a bit so my upside isn’t huge but neither is my downside, and I’m profitable or break even in roughly 70% of the weeks I’m active.

5 Players That I’m Absolutely Betting

Matt Fitzpatrick (+1100) – He finished T6 here a year ago, was T12 here at the U.S. Open in 2019, regularly finishes with top 10 and top 20 finishes, and seems like a no-brainer to me this week. He’s solid throughout his bag and I really enjoy betting him on a consistent basis since his consistency pays off. I’ll be betting him to win, to finish top 5, top 10, top 20, and he’s intriguing in other betting situations, as well.

Seamus Power (+1900) – Power had a 5-stroke lead here last year after round 2 but fell apart a bit over the weekend to settle for a T9. I got to think that he’s out for revenge on Pebble Beach this time around, and I’m inspired to bet him. Plus, he won just four starts ago and has three top 5’s over his last four starts. I’m heavily betting him this week – much the same as Fitzpatrick above.

Tom Hoge (+2200) – Hoge won here last year, was just a stroke outside of the top 10 in 2021, is strong on approach, and has been recently sound with his putter – my kind of golfer! He had a T3 three starts ago and has five top 13’s so far this season already, so there’s lots to like about Tom this week. I doubt he will defend his title but I’m still on the top 20 and will consider the top 10 also.

Andrew Putnam (+2500) – He’s a consistent performer having not missed a cut line since last July, regularly finishes in the teens, 20’s, and 30’s, and can pop for top 10’s the odd time too. Case in point, he was T6 here last year despite a +1 in round 4, and had a T4 two starts ago. I’m likely going to bet him to finish top 10 and top 20 – especially the latter result.

Joel Dahmen (+4000) – The new father of a new baby boy returns this week after no play from him over the last 2+ months, but he wrapped up his Fall play with three consecutive top 9’s, and has five top 16’s over his last six starts. There’s a risk of rust for Dahmen this week, but I’m betting he overcomes the lack of play lately and has a solid finish. I’m going to lay down a top 20 wager on him and will look at a top 10 also, but will likely be a bit gun-shy on that more aggressive one.

5 Players That I Might Bet

Jordan Spieth (+1200) – Spieth is an interesting case study this week since he comes in limping in terms of results and stat lines, but he has been so stellar here that recent form doesn’t scare me off. He has finished in the top 9 here for three straight years and has five top 20’s over the last six years including winning in 2017. I’ll likely bet him to finish top 10 and top 20, but I’m a tad hesitant to bet him outright. Over the last four years though, he has gone T45, T9, T3, 2nd, so if he continues the upward progression, he has no choice but to win this week.

Viktor Hovland (+1200) – Hovland has three top 10’s over his last five starts, has six straight top 21’s, and eight top 21’s in his last nine starts – the other finish was a T35. I’m probably all over his top 10 and top 20 wagers this week, and may get into top 5 territory, but I’m not prepared to make that decision just yet.

Nick Taylor (+1200) – Taylor has a fabulous track record at this venue including winning in 2020, he has three top 14’s since 2017, and five top 30’s in the last seven years. I also like that he finished T7 two starts ago, and has been quite good on approach since last September. I’ll likely bet Nick to finish top 20 this week, but I don’t think I’m going to venture into a top 10 wager.

Ben Griffin (+6000) – The final two spots have been reserved for the Griffins – no relation to each other. Ben is a talented 20-something golfer who has gained strokes on approach in seven straight measured events and off the tee in five consecutive. He has three top 16’s over his last seven starts and has six top 32’s over that same span. I’m strongly considering the top 20 bet on him this week, and will likely commit to it before Thursday’s round 1 begins.

Lanto Griffin (+9000) – Lanto is a Cali guy who’s fighting his way back from back surgery that cost him six months of professional play. He had a T37 last week which isn’t too shabby given the very long layoff, and I really like that he had a T9 here three years ago and a T16 last year. I’m more than likely going to bet Lanto to finish top 20 this week, but I’m going to do more research on him and his body before I lay down the wager.

5 Other Interesting Bets

Tournament Trio – Seamus Power (+150) – This battle includes Power, Mitchell, and McCarthy, and I do like Power’s odds given what I mentioned about him above. McCarthy has no top 30’s in his last four starts and just one in his last eight starts, and Mitchell has missed the cut in two out of his last five starts with just one top 20 in his last twelve starts.

To Miss the Cut – Matthew NeSmith (+150) – NeSmith has missed three straight cut lines and he missed the cut here last year while losing strokes in most of the major stat categories. He does have two top 16’s here since 2020, but I’m banking on him missing his fourth straight cut this week, and I like the +150 payout.

Nationality Props – Top Canadian – Nick Taylor (+135) – Taylor has been solid at this event over the years and doesn’t have much Canadian competition this week except for Taylor Pendrith, but he missed the cut two starts ago, has two other top 60-something over his last four starts and his approach play has been off kilter over his last six measured tournaments. I think betting Nick as the top Canuck this week is a well-calculated wager.

Tournament Winning Margin – 2, 3, and 4 Strokes Exactly (+350, +650, and +350 respectively) – Six straight years in a row the winner here has won by 2, 3, 4 or strokes, and it has happened twice with each outcome with the last two years seeing the winner take it by 2 strokes. If you bet all three of these outcomes with the same wager on each, you’ll at least win 50% on your overall investment assuming the winner takes it by at least 2 strokes.

To Make the Cut – Jordan Spieth (-900) – The odds for Spieth to make the cut aren’t very attractive, but he has never missed the cut at this event despite having played it every year since 2013, winning in 2017, he has six top 9’s and his worst finish was a T45 no thanks to losing 6.36 strokes ball striking. He really has this tournament figured out, and if you bet on this outcome you’ll still profit by 11%.

Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!

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