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Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview

Mike Evans

NFC South Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: Buccaneers -2.5 | Total Points: 37.5

Coming into this week’s NFC matchup vs the Buccaneers, the Falcons have a .500 record at 3-3. The Falcons hosted the Commanders in week 6. The Falcons finished the game with a 24-16 loss. Besides their straight-up loss, the Falcons also failed to cover the spread as 1.5-point favorites. Going into the game vs. Washington, the over/under line was 42. With a combined total of 40 points, the under hit in this game.

Heading into the game, the Buccaneers are the 4th ranked team in the NFC with a record of 3-2. Against other teams in the Conference, they have a mark of 3-2. The Buccaneers hosted the Lions in their last game but lost by a score of 20-6. With their 14-point loss, the Buccaneers also were handed a defeat on their ATS record. Going into the game, they were 3-point underdogs. The under hit in the Buccaneers’ most recent game, as the team’s combined for 26 points. The line going into the game was 43.

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers History

Last year, the Falcons and Buccaneers split their head-to-head matchups with each team going 1-1. The over/under mark in these matchups was 1-1, with the teams combining to average 41.5 points per contest. When looking at the spread, the Falcons went 2-0 in their head-to-head matchups. On offense, the two teams finished with similar production in yardage, with the Falcons averaging 321.5 yards per game compared to the Buccaneers at 321.

The last three times that the Buccaneers have faced off vs. the Falcons as the favorite, they have gone 3-0. When looking at the last three head-to-head matchups between the Falcons and Buccaneers, only 2 points per game has separated the teams, with the Falcons going 2-1 vs. the spread.

Notable Injuries

Atlanta Falcons

  • Keilahn Harris – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Barry Wesley – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Ikenna Enechukwu – Leg (Out)
  • Josh Ali – Ankle (Out)
  • Troy Andersen – Arm (Out)
  • Parker Hesse – Undisclosed (Out)
  • Matt Hennessy – Knee (Out)
  • Feleipe Franks – Foot (Out)
  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji – Foot (Out)
  • Avery Williams – Knee (Out)
  • Ethan Greenidge – Leg (Out)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Anthony Nelson – None (Questionable)
  • Vita Vea – Foot (Questionable)
  • Ryan Jensen – Knee (Out)
  • Chase Edmonds – Knee (Out)
  • Russell Gage – Knee (Out)

Keys To Victory: Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons come in with an average of 16.5 points per game on offense, which has them 25th in the NFL. Starting at quarterback for the Falcons is Desmond Ridder. So far, he has completed 64.0% of his passes and is 13th among other quarterbacks in passing yards. His passer rating so far is 81.3. Points have been hard to come by for the team, despite their success in the rushing game. So far, the Atlanta offense is not only near the top of the league in yards at 119 per game, but they also an above-average team in terms of attempts.

Keys To Victory: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers will be looking for quarterback Baker Mayfield to continue the team’s efficient play in the passing game. Overall, Tampa Bay is averaging 18 points per game, placing them 22nd in the league. Compared to other quarterbacks, Mayfield is ranked 24th in passing yards while completing 65.4% of his passes. Wide receiver Mike Evans is pacing the Buccaneers with 386 receiving yards. Overall, he has 24 catches on 41 targets. A major problem for this year’s Tampa Bay offense is their lack of production in the run game. Per attempt the team is averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt. Overall, they are the 29th-ranked team in yards per game.

Betting Trends

  • When looking at their past ten road matchups, Atlanta has an ATS record of 4-6 while averaging 15 per game. The team went 1-9 overall in these games.
  • In their last three home games, Tampa Bay has averaged 21 points per game while allowing 18. The team’s record in this stretch was 2-1 while going 2-1 vs. the spread.
  • In their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Falcons have a straight-up record of 1-9 and an ATS mark of 3-7.
  • Going back to their previous ten games as the favorite, Tampa Bay has an ATS mark of 3-6-1 while going 6-4 straight up.


  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 18
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