Underdog Fantasy Prop Bets
Have Justin Fields and DJ Moore arrived? The duo dominated against the Commanders on TNF. What a way to kick off an exciting week five in the NFL! I am most excited about the return of WR Cooper Kupp and RB Jonathan Taylor this upcoming weekend. I am genuinely curious to see how these two perform and shake up things in the NFL. It will be exciting to watch Anthony Richardson with JT in the backfield…
With that being said, let’s hop right into 7 Underdog Fantasy Prop Bets for week five!
2023 Prop Picks Record: (11-18)
Zay Flowers OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards (@PIT)
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense in 2023 has been very kind to opposing WRs thus far.
Here is a list of WR’s and their points scored against Pittsburgh’s defense:
- Week 1 – Brandon Ayiuk, 8 catches 129 yards, and 2 TDs
- Week 2 – Amari Cooper, 7 catches 90 yards
- Week 3 – Davante Adams, 13 catches for 172 yards and 2 TDs
- Week 4 – Nico Collins, 7 catches for 168 yards and 2 TDs.
You get the point. Also, it is important to note that rookie WR Zay Flowers currently leads the team in targets this season. He currently has a team-high of 29! The next highest is TE Mark Andrews with 18.
I like the line here for Flowers to smash the over.
Marquise Brown OVER 52.5 Receiving Yards (vs CIN)
The 2023 Arizona Cardinals have surprisingly looked fairly decent as a team thus far in 2023. After cutting long-time backup, Colt McCoy, the Cardinals traded for QB Joshua Dobbs and made him the team’s starter just before the season began. Many speculated they were in the races to tank for Caleb, but that just does not appear to be the case. The team is currently 1-3 and Josh Dobbs has been efficient and leading the WR room thus far has been WR Marquise Brown who has been relatively consistent.
In fact, Brown has hit the over on this prop 3 out of 4 games thus far.
With a Bengals team that appears to be in shambles, they are currently allowing well over 200 Pass YPG against them each week and that leads me to think Brown should his this prop.
With rookie WR Michael Wilson blossoming alongside Brown, I think that is only going to help draw coverage away from Brown.
If you asked me before the season if I would have a Cardinals OVER prop bet in my picks, I would have called you crazy but here we are in week five of a wild NFL start.
Alvin Kamara OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards (@NE)
Alvin Kamara is back with the Saints and it is clear that he is already back to leading this backfield. In fact, Kamara played 75% of snaps in his first week of action after facing a (3) game suspension to start the season. Not only has Kamara been a fantastic pass-catching RB in years past, but his starting QB Derek Carr is currently dealing with a shoulder injury, and it’s clear that he is not 100% in his throwing capabilities. This was very apparent in last week’s game against the Bucs. Although the offense wasn’t really able to move much and score last week, Kamara quickly became a great dump-off option for a QB with a shoulder injury. He secured 13 grabs for 33 yards in his first week back.
Keep an eye on practice reports throughout the week. If Carr is going to give it a shot against NE, I really like this prop to hit the over.
Breece Hall OVER 80.5 Rush + Rec Yards (@DEN)
I know, I know, I know…. Breece Hall has been very unpredictable thus far this year. His usage has been up and down, and unfortunately, this offense is really struggling with Zach Wilson at the helm. But there are a couple of reasons why this prop feels right and week five could be a Breece Hall breakout game.
- Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton made some very negative comments towards Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett in the offseason. Will the Jets rally around and fight for the honor of their OC? I hope so.
- Jets HC Robert Salah said in an interview this week that Breece Hall will no longer be on any sort of pitch count moving forward. This could indicate more usage and playing time from one of their best offensive weapons, it would only make sense to.
- This 2023 Broncos Team is absolutely abysmal against opposing offenses thus far. After letting up a whopping 70 points a couple of weeks ago to the Dolphins, they also made the Bear’s offense come alive last week.
- Last week when the Jets had taken on the Kansas City Chiefs, their offense did perform better than usual which is a good sign towards hopefully some progression. If the Jets can build off that performance, the Bronco’s Defense is the perfect opponent to do just that.
Dalton Kincaid OVER 4.0 Targets (vs JAX)
I do have to say, I really do love having football on as soon as I wake up — The Bills have traveled to London to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are coming off of a nice win against the Falcons last weekend, which was also in London. So they are well-adjusted to the time zone changes and such.
But with that being said, Kincaid is a really nice option here and I think this could be a nice week for the rookie in this Bills offense.
Although TE Dawson Knox has recently been cleared to go for the game on Sunday, he was having limited practices earlier in the week. So if he does have some sort of low-key injury, it may just be something to watch out for.
Even Knox’s presence in this offense hasn’t stopped Kincaid from being an option, in fact, Kincaid would have hid this prop three out of four weeks thus far in the season.
He has a role on this team and I think this trend continues to go upwards.
Justin Jefferson OVER 105.5 Receiving + Rush Yards (vs KC)
Although somehow surprisingly the Minnesota Vikings are 0-4 that has not stopped Justin Jefferson from being dominant. Now they get the ultimate test in the NFL against the 3-1 Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have won 3 straight after losing week one in the NFL opener, they are certainly still the same force that they have been. But, with that being said, the Vikings offense has consistently been able to move the ball and score points. The O/U Vegas line for the game total is currently set at 52.5 which is the highest so far for week 5. I like looking at the Vegas line and just seeing what they think is going to happen, with the high game total, It tells me they think it will be a scoring frenzy and that the offenses will be moving.
Either way, Jefferson is currently averaging 136 yards receiving per game. He is on a planet of his own and is a consistent problem for opposing defenses.
When does Jefferson have an off week? It is so rare.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 56.5 Rushing Yards (@ MIN)
Last week against a very good New York Jets defense, Pacheco blew up for 20 carries, 115 yards and 1 TD. (with 3 receptions for 43 yards). He was the focal point of a Chiefs offense that squeaked out a win on the road. Pacheco has had a relatively decent start to the season, he’s actually hit the over on this rushing prop three out of four games already. Not to mention, his usage has been seemingly increasing each week since week 1 where he only had 8 attempts.
- Week 1 – 8 Rushing Attempts
- Week 2 – 12 Rushing Attempts
- Week 3 – 15 Rushing Attempts
- Week 4 – 20 Rushing Attempts
As you can see, it’s been a really positive progression of his usage in this KC Chiefs offense. Not to mention, they are 3-0 when Pacheco has more than 10 carries in a game. With all signs pointing towards this possibly being a shootout of a high-scoring game, and with Pacheco getting more work, I think he hits the over in this prop and we can sleep happy with it in our bet sheets.
Best of luck to you all in a wild NFL season. I am hoping to build off a really rough week 4 in my prop picks, hopefully, these hit and we’re all smiling.
Remember, nothing is truly ever a lock.