We are back and ready for NFL week 7!
One stat that I had seen this past week and wanted to pass along — The Detroit Lions are currently 5-1 and have a 13-3 record dating back to week 9 of last season. They are for real people, and I’m all bought in. Could Jared Goff be an MVP candidate? He just might be if his play continues to grow in this fun and dominant offense. The Lions are a historic franchise, and have been through some really really rough years and playoff droughts. It’s their time for some spotlight, and they just might be the most fun “underdog” team in the NFL to root for.
It’s now week 7 — Which is crazy to think about. It feels like it was just yesterday we were missing NFL football and now we are in full swing. Some story lines are starting to be written. Our sample sizes in data and trends are getting more and more in-depth, and now is where I think we really see the identity of these teams. I don’t have data to back this up, but I can guarantee most teams are going through some sorts of adversity whether it be injuries, off-field issues, etc. The midway of a season is critical, and we will start to begin seeing some dogs separate from the pack.
With that being said, let’s take a look at some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy Prop picks for week 7. After a couple of weeks off from writing for some personal time away from the screen, I am in need of a good week to build off a rocky start to the 2023 season.
2023 Prop Record: 11-17
WR Cooper Kupp OVER 98.5 Receiving Yards (vs PIT)
Kupp has been on an absolute tear since his return from a hamstring injury. The Rookie wideout, Puka Nacua, is very much still relevant and remains a factor — But Kupp has been straight up dominant. He has receiving yards of 118 in week 5 and then 148 in week 6. He already has 21 targets resulting in 15 catches in only two weeks. Straight dominant and favorite in that offense. I am thinking that this trend continues against a struggling Pittsburgh secondary. The Steelers secondary has allowed for some really big performances by Amari Cooper, Nico Collins, Davante Adams and Brandon Ayiuk. This is a high prop but this just feels like it happens every week he takes the field.
WR Jayden Reed OVER 26.5 Receiving Yards (@ DEN)
I really like this prop for a couple of reasons — The first being that Reed has been low-key pretty good this year for the Packers as a rookie. In fact, he has well hit the over on this prop in the first 4 weeks of his career. He’s had games with 48,37,63 and 55 receiving yards. He has the skill set to potentially hit the over on this prop in one play and I love situations like that. He did have a rough week against the Raiders in week 5 against the Raiders (1 catch for 7 yards). But — He should be fresh coming off a BYE week and this Packers team really needs a win, like now. Not to mention, this Broncos defense has been very friendly to opposing WR’s and offenses in general. This Broncos defense has allowed 1,608 (268 yards passing per game allowed) passing yards and 14 touchdowns (2.33 receiving touchdowns per game) to opposing passing offenses thus far, with an average of 8.2 yards per pass.
WR Joshua Palmer OVER 47.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (@ KC)
I am, for some reason, a big Josh Palmer fan. I really am not sure what it is, but I am rooting for him. Since WR Mike Williams suffered his ACL injury and was determined out for the season, Palmer has strung some pretty good games together — He’s had receiving yards of 66, 77, and 60 since his role has been expanded. Now he gets a familiar foe in division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. In week 2 of the 2022 season last year, Palmer had 4 grabs on 8 targets for 30 yards against them. But then in November of 2022, Palmer had 8 receptions on 10 targets for 106 yards. He had 3 touchdowns against them last year. In a potentially high-scoring game here, I really like the over on this prop.
RB Isiah Pacheco OVER 82.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (vs LAC)
I really do like this game as a potential high scoring shootout — Both teams are familiar with each other and the Chargers need a win badly. Both offenses are capable of doing a lot of things, these games can be fun. Pacheco has really come on strong in this Chiefs offense as of late and I think that trend continues here. Last year when Pacheco had emerged in the Chiefs backfield late in the season, in their November matchup, Pacheco had 15 carries for 107 yards. He certainly can hit this prop. Not to mention, the Chiefs just traded for a familiar face in WR Mecole Hardman, whom I think really helps this offense with his speed. As the Dolphins have shown us, speed kills and I think this only helps everyone on this Mahomes-led offense. Pacheco is also now consistently getting more work and strengthening his role on this team — He has had 15+ carries each game since week 3 this year. Let’s ride the wave.
WR Davante Adams OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (@ CHI)
It has not been many times that Future HOF WR Davante Adams has vocally and publicly voiced frustrations with his current situation, but in the last week Davante has made some comments and it is clear that he is making everyone know — He wants the ball more and deservedly so. Mind you the Raiders are going to be without starting QB, Jimmy Garoppolo, but I think going against this Bears team will be a game for Davante to get back on track regardless. If it is rookie QB, Aidan O Connell, under center, I think he would make it a focus to try and hit his best target. This prop number just feels so low for a WR of Adams caliber. This week has bounce back written all over it and McDaniels knows he has to feed his top dog.
WR Darius Slayton OVER 32.5 Receiving Yards (vs WAS)
The 2023 Commanders defense has been incredibly kind to opposing wide receivers thus far. With that being said, Slayton has hit the over on this prop already 3 times this season and now gets a very good matchup to do again. The Commanders defense is currently allowing around 248 yards passing per game. Even last week, Drake London was able to get over 100+ yards and had a nice day. Going up against a susceptible defense, there should be a good shot Slayton hits this. It feels right.
WR Marquise Brown OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards (@SEA)
This pick is very similar to the Slayton one for me this week. Brown has been squeaky good with QB Joshua Dobbs at the helm for the Cardinals, and it makes sense. I think people forget how good of a player he can be, and he is entering the prime of his career in terms of age. Last year against this Seahawks team, Brown was able to secure 5 passes for 68 yards against them. So there is some minor similarity. I also imagine game script may be a factor here for this prop to hi. If Seattle can take and settle in an early game, the Cardinals may be having to pass more than they anticipated.
Good luck to everyone in week 7. Let’s get these coins back!