Underdog Fantasy Prop Bets
Week four of the NFL season kicked off this week with the Lions defeating the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau. As we start to gear up our bets and fantasy squads for Sunday, it’s time to take a look at week four NFL prop picks on Underdog Fantasy!
As we are now three weeks into the 2023 season, I wanted to start keeping track of the prop bets per position that I am suggesting. The reason for this,I want to understand my own tendencies in the lines that I look for and see which positions I do better (or worse) at.
Last week, I went 4-3 again with my prop picks, bringing my season record to 11-10. Now let’s break that down by position and see how I’ve been doing there:
2023 Record: 11-10 (.523%)
- QB Props: 3/7 (.43%)
- RB Props: 3/7 (.43%)
- WR Props: 1/3
- TE Props: 1/1 (100%)
- K Props: 2/2 (100%)
- DEF Props: ½ (50%)
It’s clear that I tend to favor the QB/RB props, but as we continue to go through the NFL season, I will be sure to keep these updated to reflect on my suggestions. The more data, the better I always feel about making picks.
With that being said, lets take a look at week four of the 2023 NFL season:
K Evan McPherson OVER 2.0 Extra Points (@ TEN)
The Cincinnati Bengals have certainly not started their season as they had hoped. QB Joe Burrow has been battling a lingering calf injury that has certainly affected his performance thus far (I mean he missed all of training camp and pre season, it’s going to take a little bit to get back to normal for him) As he continues to progress, I do think this is the game where the Bengals start to look better. They are going against a very lackluster Titans team, and I think they score twice against them. This Titans team is averaging 2 touchdowns scored against them thus far in 2023, and they get to face an offense on the rise. McPherson converts both extra points here.
WR Tank Dell OVER 45.5 receiving yards (@ PIT)
Rookie wideout Tank Dell is taking the NFL by storm so far in 2023. The rookie 3rd round pick is currently averaging 83 yards receiving per game, and gets to take on a Steelers defense that allowed both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers to feast just last week. Meyers hauled in 9 grabs for 85 yards, while Adams caught 13 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns. Look for Tank Dell to have a nice day. He could even hit the over on this prop with one catch… He’s been that good. Let’s ride the wave.
QB Justin Herbert OVER 280.5 Passing yards (vs LV)
Quarterback Justin Herbert has already hit the over on this prop ⅔ games this season and he will again in week four. The Chargers host the 1-2 Las Vegas Raiders as they look to win a crucial division game. With RB Austin Ekeler listed as doubtful, the chargers may look to attack the Raiders in the passing game where they have historically done so. In six career games against the Raiders, Herbert has hit the over 4/6 times. He should have another field day against a suspect Raiders defense.
RB Jaylen Warren OVER 33.5 Rushing yards (vs HOU)
Jaylen Warren and the Steelers look to build off a big SNF win against the Raiders. Warren’s usage in 2023 thus far has been growing each week. Last week he had season highs in carries (8) and yards (29). Through three weeks, the Texans are allowing on average 117 yards on the ground against them. With more usage, I have a feeling Warren gets over this prop.
RB Brian Robinson OVER 51.5 Rushing yards (vs PHI)
Commanders running back, Brian Robinson, has looked great in his sophomore campaign. In fact he’s hit over this prop 3/3 games this season. BUT, it must be said that he is going up against a tremendous Eagles run defense. While this is an important division game, last year, Robinson ran for 86 yards against the eagles. It’s possible, and I think the Commanders rely on the run game here.
RB Raheem Mostert OVER 51.5 Rushing yards (vs BUF)
Mostert has been on absolute FIRE thus far in 2023 on a very talented Mike McDaniel offense. Coming off of a 70(!!!) point outing, I think the offensive wizardry continues in week four against the Buffalo Bills. Mostert has topped this prop ⅔ games and will do so again in week four. The Bills defense is currently allowing on average 110 rush yards a game. In what should be a high scoring matchup here, smash the over on Mostert.
WR JaMarr Chase OVER 82.5 Receiving yards (at TEN)
He’s baaaaack. After a quiet start to the 2023 campaign, Chase had a big game in week three against the Rams for 12 grabs and 141 yards. He now gets a very susceptible Titans pass defense in week four. The Titans are currently 28th in the league in pass defense, allowing 275.3 yards per game. As the Bengals are fighting back from a rough couple weeks. It seems the stars have aligned for this prop to hit.