Season Long QB Prop Bet Picks
This time of year is excellent for looking at season-long prop bet picks — and Underdog is a great platform. When looking at these pick options, I enjoy this sort of “macro” view of the upcoming season. Instead of looking at a week-week basis of trying to optimize our drafted team’s potential, we now can put wagers on how a player performs in a particular statistical category. I favor always going with the “Over” for a specific prop that I like because it’s just naturally more fun for me to root for success rather than not. But, if the under is tempting on the prop… I will certainly go with that.
With that in mind, I want to share 4 of my favorite QB season-long prop bets from Underdog Fantasy.
Lamar Jackson OVER 24.5 passing touchdowns
I love this prop for Lamar Jackson for a couple of reasons — He has hit over 25 passing touchdowns twice in his career, and both were when he played at least 15 games in a season. Last year alone, he had 17 passing touchdowns through 12 games. If he could finish out those five games, he has an excellent chance of hitting 25 for last year. There are also a lot of changes that happened this off-season that have created a lot of realistic hype around this Baltimore Ravens offense. First and foremost, they signed their long-term deal with Lamar, which must bring him commitment and security within the organization. Next, they signed a new offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, from the University of Georgia, hoping to take this offense to the next level. Lastly. they have added more wide receiver weapons that prime Lamar for having the best passing year of his career. They’ve added Odell Beckham Jr and Zay Flowers to pair alongside Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. Lamar will likely be orchestrating a very high-powered and efficient offense with all these factors combined in 2023. His previous high in touchdown passes is 36, which happened in 2019, so it is realistic and likely he can hit the over on 25 passing touchdowns this year.
Daniel Jones OVER 17.5 passing touchdowns
This is one of my favorite prop bets for many reasons — First and foremost, Daniel Jones hit 24 passing touchdowns in 2019, his rookie season when he played in 14 games. He is more than capable of hitting this number. Jones enters his second complete offseason with head coach Brian Daboll, and things seem to be trending in the right direction. Daniel Jones improved as a football player in 2022, took the Giants to the playoffs, and even won a game. The team committed to him financially with a four-year contract. The Giants also traded for pro bowl TE Darren Waller, brought back Saquon Barkley, drafted Jalin Hyatt and more this offseason. We also didn’t get to see too much out of 2022 rookie Wan’Dale Robinson, so another weapon for Daniel Jones and crew. There are plenty of reasons for optimism for Jones to hit this number in 2023 as the Giants look to make the playoffs for the second year.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 4800.5 passing yards
Year in and year out, there is always reason to be optimistic about Mahomes and the Chiefs. Time and time again, they have proved that they can be a high-powered offense no matter what when Mahomes is at the helm. Through his five years as a starter for the Chiefs, Mahomes has hit over this number three times. That is already a 60% success rate. Mind you, the other two seasons, he was very close to hitting over 4800.5 passing yards, but he came up short due to injury and missed time. So, if Mahomes is healthy for the 2023 season, he has an excellent chance to hit the over. He’s hit over on this the past two seasons in a row. This is a bet to hit the submit button and not think twice about it. It’s on the safer side for me.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 26.5 passing touchdowns
The stars seemed to have aligned for Trevor Lawrence this season, and after his strong 2022 performance, there is hope that he continues to take the next step in his career. Lawrence, similar to Jones, is entering into his second offseason with head coach Doug Pederson, which is good for any young quarterback. The continuity gives Lawrence a chance to feel more comfortable and confident in his offense. Familiarity is a good thing, and Lawrence was thrown to the wolves his rookie year with Urban Meyer as head coach. But after throwing 25 passing touchdowns in 2022, he has a chance now to take that number even higher, and I think he does. The most significant factor is getting superstar wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who can help take this offense to the next level. His playmaking ability has been well-documented already through training camp and preseason games. But a new big-time WR1 for the young quarterback can help advance his game. Tight end Evan Engram also broke out last year in this Jacksonville offense, which they rewarded with a 3-year contract to keep him on the team. Lawrence has a perfect mix of familiarity with his returning offensive weapons and the excitement of adding a big-time WR1. There is a lot to be excited about with the Jaguars, and Trevor Lawrence has a great chance at taking his game to the next level.
These are currently my four favorite season-long Underdog Prop Bets that are out there now. When looking at Quarterback bets, I try to remove my fandom entirely from any betting decisions I make. I like to look at offenses that made huge jumps the previous year and added weapons to get better for this upcoming year. With the NFL, we know there are never any guarantees with what happens, but my strategy is always to look at the outside pieces and make the best guess that I can.