Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick and Preview
NFC East Divisional Matchup
Point Spread: Eagles -4 | Total Points: 49.5
Washington enters week 11 with a 7-3 record, putting them 2nd in the NFC East and 6th in the conference standings. The Commanders have a +7.3 scoring margin and are 7-2-1 against the spread, including a 5-1 mark as the favorite. Their O/U record is 7-3, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Our power rankings have Washington 9th, and they have a 91.5% chance of making the playoffs. They have a 35.8% chance of winning the NFC East. In week 11, the Commanders will be on the road against the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s 34-6 win over the Cowboys in week 10 extended their winning streak to five games, bringing their record to 7-2. The Eagles currently sit 7th in our NFL power rankings and have a 96.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 64.2% chance of winning the NFC East. They are 2-0 in division games and 4-2 in conference play.
Against the spread, the Eagles are 5-4, with a +8 scoring margin. They are 3-4 as favorites and 2-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 4-5, with their games averaging 43.8 points compared to an average line of 45.4.
Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles History
- When looking at their past three road matchups, Washington has an ATS record of 2-0-1 while averaging 30 per game. The team went 2-1 overall in these games.
- Philadelphia has played well in their previous three home games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 8. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-0.
- As the betting underdog, the Commanders have an ATS mark of just 3-6-1 in their last ten games. Washington posted a straight up mark of 2-8 in these matchups.
- In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Eagles have a straight up record of 5-5 and an ATS mark of 3-7.
Notable Injuries
Washington Commanders
- Colson Yankoff – Hamstring (Out)
- Norell Pollard – Undisclosed (Out)
- Javontae Jean-Baptiste – Ankle (Out)
- Brandon Coleman – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Andrew Wylie – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Kevon Seymour – Suspension (Out)
- Marshon Lattimore – Hamstring (Out)
- Jonathan Allen – Pectoral (Out)
- Jamison Crowder – Calf (Out)
- Cornelius Lucas – Ankle (Questionable)
- Nick Bellore – Knee (Out)
- Austin Seibert – Right Hip (Out)
Philadelphia Eagles
- Byron Young – Hamstring (Out)
- Britain Covey – Shoulder (Out)
- James Bradberry IV – Lower Leg (Out)
- Le’Raven Clark – Undisclosed (Out)
- John Ross – Undisclosed (Out)
Keys To Victory: Washington Commanders
Heading into week 11, Washington ranks 2nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 3rd in the NFL in scoring, averaging 29 points per game, and 4th in total yards per game with 377. Despite ranking 26th in passing attempts, they are 11th in passing yards per game, averaging 223.5. On the ground, Washington is 4th in rushing attempts and rushing yards, with 153.5 per game. They also rank 5th in 3rd-down conversions, converting 44.7% of their attempts, and lead the NFL in red zone attempts, though they are 28th in conversion rate at 9.1%.
Jayden Daniels threw for 202 yards on 17/34 passing in week 10, finishing with a passer rating of 68. Terry McLaurin led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 113 yards, and Austin Ekeler had 44 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 13 carries. Washington scored 10 points in both the 2nd and 3rd quarters but were held scoreless in the 4th.
In the Washington Commanders’ 28-27 loss to the Steelers, their defense allowed just 172 passing yards on 14 completions but gave up three passing touchdowns. They also allowed 140 rushing yards on 43 attempts, with Pittsburgh gaining 3.3 yards per attempt on the ground. Washington’s defense intercepted one pass and held the Steelers to a 48.3% completion percentage.
Despite allowing just 312 total yards, the Commanders’ defense struggled on third down, allowing the Steelers to convert 56.2% of their third downs. Washington did manage three sacks in the game.
Keys To Victory: Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia’s offense is 8th in our power rankings, and they are 6th in both points per game (25.9) and yards per game (373.9). They lean heavily on the run game, leading the NFL in rushing attempts per game (36) and ranking 2nd in rushing yards per game (176.1). On the other hand, they are 31st in passing attempts, with 197.8 yards per game through the air, which ranks 20th. The Eagles are 14th in the league in 3rd-down conversions (39.2%) and 26th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 5th in red zone attempts.
Jalen Hurts threw for 202 yards (14/20) and 2 touchdowns in week 10, but he was sacked 5 times and threw an interception. Saquon Barkley had 66 rushing yards on 14 carries, and A.J. Brown led the team with 5 catches for 109 yards. Philadelphia scored 14 points in the 3rd quarter against Dallas after scoring 6 points in the 4th quarter of week 9 and 13 in the 4th quarter of week 8.
In their 34-6 win over the Cowboys, the Eagles’ defense was outstanding, allowing just 49 yards passing and forcing one interception. Dallas managed only 97 yards rushing on 24 attempts. Philadelphia’s defense was tough on third downs, allowing only a 21.4% conversion rate, and they also came away with three sacks.
The Eagles’ defense limited Dallas to just 146 total yards and kept them out of the endzone, not allowing any passing touchdowns. Philadelphia also won the tackles for loss battle, finishing with a +1 differential in the game.
Betting Trends
- In their last ten games away from home, the Commanders have a straight up record of 4-6 while going 6-3-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 25 points per game in this stretch.
- Across the Eagles last ten home games, the team averaged 20 points per game while allowing 20. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 5-5, while going 5-5 straight up.
- The Commanders have played well in their last three games as the betting underdog, going 2-1 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread.
- Over the team’s last five games as the favorite, the Eagles struggled vs the spread going just 2-3. However, they still had a straight up mark of 4-1.
Prediction
- Philadelphia Eagles 32 – Washington Commanders 30
