7 NFL Picks for Underdog Fantasy
It is now week 11 of the NFL season… Please slow down! The NFL is in a league of it’s own, in terms of entertainment. I always like to appreciate the season when we are in it, the offseasons seem so long – Anyways, we begin week 11 after what was an injury-riddled TNF matchup between the Ravens and Bengals.
Star players Mark Andrews and Joe Burrow both had to leave the contest early due to injury, which unfortunately is a part of this gruesome game. It has been said that TE Mark Andrews will be out for the remainder of the season as he is now on the road to recovery.
Looking at the week ahead, here are the teams that have a BYE week in week 11.
- Indianapolis Colts
- Atlanta Falcons
- New England Patriots
- New Orleans Saints
There isn’t too much offensive firepower on their bye this week. In week 10, the NFL was without the Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams. So a little different this week as a lot of star power has returned.
With that being said, let’s take a look into 7 of my favorite Underdog Fantasy Prop Picks for week 11.
Last Week: 4-3
WR George Pickens UNDER 36.5 Receiving Yards (@ CLE)
The Steelers are set to face a Deshaun Watson-less Browns team, as these two teams battle it out in an important division game. But, with that being said, the Steelers offense has been far short of “exciting” this year and there have been some struggles with QB Kenny Pickett. They now get to face a familiar opponent, and a really good defense. The Browns are only allowing 123 yards per game to opposing WR’s, and this trend should continue. Mind you, Pickens has hit the over on this prop 5/10 games this year, but given the strength of this matchup, in what should be a low scoring affair, I think the frustrations with Pickens will continue another week…
WR Jayden Reed OVER 35.5 Receeiving Yards (vs LAC)
I really like this prop for a multitude of reasons, but the main reason being that the Chargers pass defense has been absolutely atrocious this year. They are allowing on average 196 yards per game to opposing WR’s, so Reed is in a prime matchup to bank this. Jayden Reed has also hit the over on this prop two out of his last three games, and that trend will continue in this matchup here at home for the Packers.
TE Trey McBride OVER 54.5 Receiving Yards (@ HOU)
The second-year TE has been dominating opposing defenses as of late. After a slowish start to his sophomore campaign, he has really picked it up – He’s had 248 receiving yards over the last three games alone, which is an average of 82 yards per game. Not to mention, his first game back with Pro Bowl QB Kyler Murray, Mcbride went for 131 receiving yards last week. The Trey McBride hype will continue another week as they are going against a Houston defense that has allowed on average 64 receiving yards per game,
RB Travis Etienne Jr UNDER 67.5 Rushing Yards (vs TEN)
It seems that this entire Jaguars team has been in a little bit of a funk as of late – They do not look like the same team as they did earlier in the year. This week they go up against division rival, the Tennesee Titans. The Titans have been extremely solid against the run in 2023, they are only allowing on average 89 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is fantastic. To put that into perspective, the Raiders are allowing on average 112 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s. In the last four weeks, Etienne is averaging 55.5 rushing yards per game. He’s been in a bit of a funk after his extremely hot start, and I think he is quiet here against a familiar opponent.
WR Adam Thielen UNDER 55.5 Receiving Yards (vs DAL)
Veteran wideout, Adam Thielen, has had a tremendous start to 2023 on a new team, with a new QB in Bryce Young. It’s clear that they have built a connection fairly quickly, but Thielen and this Panthers team have been even quieter as a whole recently. He has failed to hit the over on this prop the last two games, Not to mention, he is going up against a very tough defense in the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys dominant pass rush makes everyone on their defense better and it has been showing. In fact, they only allow on average 108 receiving yards to opposing teams, and they even have some very dominant games where they really eliminate opposing WR’s. In what should be a very lopsided game, I think the Thielen train is starting to slow down just a bit…
RB Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 70.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (vs CHI)
NFL Fans, it is time to rejoice as Jahmyr Gibbs dominance is here to stay. What an absolute tear he has been in the last three games, and it’s clear that even with veteran RB David Montgomery back in the lineup, his role is a lot different and more involved than it was earlier in the year. This is a very good matchup for Gibbs as the Bears have allowed on average 59.30 rushing yards per game to opposing RB’s, but also they have allowed on average 61.50 receiving yards to running backs as well. Gibb’s has hit this prop line fairly comfortably the last 4 games as he has taken the league by storm and that trend continues here. This is my favorite prop of the week. Lock it in and jump on the Gibbs train.
As always, I hope you all have a wonderful weekend. Dominate your fantasy leagues and win some bets, that is my goal anyway.
See you next week. Let’s get these coins back!
