Thursday Night Football Vikings at Rams Preview
NFC Conference Matchup
Point Spread: Vikings -3 | Total Points: 48
After starting the season 5-0, the Vikings suffered their first loss in week 7, falling 31-29 at home to the Lions. 1.5 points favored Minnesota but couldn’t pull out the win, dropping their record to 5-1. Despite the loss, they still have a +10.2 scoring margin and are 5-1 against the spread this season. They’ve covered in all three games as underdogs and are 2-1 as favorites.
Heading into week 8, the Vikings have a 78.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 20.4% chance of winning the NFC North. They rank 8th in our NFL power rankings. Their O/U record is 2-4, with their games averaging 45.8 points per game.
The Rams snapped a two-game losing streak in week 7, defeating the Raiders 20-15 to improve to 2-4. The win brought their home record to 2-1, but they are still winless on the road at 0-3. Heading into week 8, Los Angeles ranks 20th in our NFL power rankings and has a 14% chance of making the playoffs and an 11.5% chance of winning the NFC West.
With an average scoring margin of -6.7 points per game, the Rams are 1-5 against the spread this season. They failed to cover the 7-point spread against the Raiders, winning by 5. Their O/U record stands at 3-3, with the under-hitting in their last two games.
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams History
The last three times the Vikings have traveled to take on the Rams, they are 2-1. Against the spread, the Vikings have gone 1-1-1 vs. the spread in their last three games vs. the Rams. Also, the Vikings have gone a perfect 2-0-1 in the last three times they were on the road vs. the Rams.
- Through their last ten road contests, the Vikings offense has averaged 22 points per game while allowing an average of 17. Minnesota posted an overall record of 7-3 while going 7-1-2 ATS.
- Through their last three home contests, the Rams offense has averaged 16 points per game while allowing an average of 30. Los Angeles posted an overall record of 0-3 while going 0-3 ATS.
- Spanning across their last three games as the betting underdog, the Rams have gone 1-2 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 1-2.
- In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Vikings have a straight up record of 6-4 and an ATS mark of 5-4-1.
Notable Injuries
Minnesota Vikings
- Jordan Kunaszyk – Undisclosed (Out)
- Pat Jones II – Shoulder (Probable)
- Aaron Jones – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Harrison Phillips – Shoulder (Probable)
- Blake Cashman – Toe (Questionable)
- Dalton Risner – Back (Questionable)
- Josh Oliver – Wrist (Probable)
- T.J. Hockenson – Knee (Questionable)
- Gabriel Murphy – Undisclosed (Out)
- Jeremy Flax – Undisclosed (Out)
- NaJee Thompson – Knee (Out)
- J.J. McCarthy – Knee (Out)
- Akayleb Evans – Hip (Questionable)
- Nick Muse – Hand (Out)
- Mekhi Blackmon – Knee (Out)
Los Angeles Rams
- Zach VanValkenburg – Undisclosed (Out)
- Derion Kendrick – Knee (Out)
- Puka Nacua – Knee (Questionable)
- Steve Avila – Knee (Out)
- Tre Tomlinson – Undisclosed (Out)
- Braden Fiske – Back (Questionable)
- Jordan Whittington – Shoulder (Questionable)
- KT Leveston – Ankle (Out)
- Tyler Higbee – Knee (Out)
- Conor McDermott – Undisclosed (Out)
- John Johnson III – Shoulder (Out)
- Joe Noteboom – Ankle (Questionable)
- Neville Gallimore – Shoulder (Questionable)
- Jonah Jackson – Shoulder (Out)
- Troy Reeder – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Larrell Murchison – Foot (Out)
Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings
Sam Darnold bounced back in week 7, posting a passer rating of 103 against the Lions, completing 22 of 27 passes for 259 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. He found Justin Jefferson 7 times for 81 yards and a touchdown. Minnesota has been strong in the first quarter, leading the NFL with 9.7 points per game.
Going into week 8, the Vikings are 11th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 5th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 28 points per game, and are 13th in total yards per game, with 333.2.
In their 31-29 loss to the Lions, the Vikings gave up 144 rushing yards on 27 attempts, including a 5.3-yard average per attempt. Despite allowing 247 passing yards, Minnesota’s defense forced the Lions to average 9.9 yards per attempt. The Vikings allowed Detroit two passing touchdowns and an 88% completion rate.
Minnesota’s defense did manage to record four sacks in the game and held the Lions to a 40% third-down conversion rate. However, the Vikings gave up 391 total yards in the game.
Keys To Victory: Los Angeles Rams
Heading into week 8, the Rams rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They are averaging 19 points per game, which is 20th in the NFL, and they also rank 20th in yards per game with 313.2. In the passing game, they are 10th in attempts and 15th in yards per game, averaging 212.8. On the ground, they rank 23rd in rushing attempts and 25th in rushing yards per game, with 100.3. The Rams are 20th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 37.5%.
Matthew Stafford has thrown for 260, 224, and 154 yards in his last three games, with passer ratings of 78, 77, and 62. He has also thrown one interception in each of those games. Kyren Williams has been the team’s leading rusher, with 76 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries in week 7. Tyler Johnson led the Rams in receiving in week 7, with 4 catches for 57 yards.
Against the Raiders, the Rams’ defense recorded three interceptions and limited Las Vegas to a 20% conversion rate on third down. Despite giving up 122 rushing yards on 29 attempts, the Rams held the Raiders to 195 passing yards and didn’t allow a passing touchdown. Los Angeles also recorded two sacks and held Las Vegas to 15 points.
The Rams’ defense was effective in generating pressure. They won the quarterback hit differential and had more tackles for loss than the Raiders. Overall, the Rams allowed just 317 total yards in the game.
Betting Trends
- Across the Vikings’ last ten road games, the team averaged 22 points per game while allowing 17. Their record vs. the spread in these contests was 7-1-2, while they went 7-3 straight-up.
- In their past five home matchups, Los Angeles has an ATS record of 2-3, averaging 18 per game. The team went 1-4 overall in these games.
- Going back to their previous three games as the underdog, Los Angeles has an ATS mark of 1-2 while going 1-2 straight up.
- In their last five contests as the favorite, Minnesota has a poor record against the spread, going 2-2-1. However, they still put together a straight-up mark of 3-2.
Prediction
- Minnesota Vikings 24 – Los Angeles Rams 23
