Thursday Night Football Week 6 Prop Bets

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Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears

We’re back again for another fine Thursday of football. Ok, ok, we’re just back for another Thursday of football. As expected last week’s game went down like a sack of bricks, and I’m not expecting much more with this one. But we’re here to win some money so let’s look into it. The Chicago Bears host the Washington Commanders in a game that cannot be split, as of writing this it’s a straight pick’em, and the points total is a drab 38. I believe this will go down to which quarterback is able to stay composed and keep their team in the game.

Both Justin Fields and Carson Wentz rank highly in the areas we’re going to look into, unfortunately, they’re not the ones you’d want to brag about. To start with, Wentz is the third most-sacked quarterback in the NFL (20), and Fields is right behind him tied for fourth (18). Understandably, they’re also both tied for third in fumbles (6). As well as this, Wentz is third with interceptions (6), with Fields tied ninth with (4), although Fields throws the ball a lot less than Wentz so his turnover/attempt ratio is significantly worse. If I had to pick one to turn the ball over though, I’m going with Wentz. Why? As stated he throws the ball significantly more than Fields, and the Bears have 5 interceptions on the year already, to the Commanders’ 1. Wentz is also dealing with a minor shoulder issue, so that may affect his throwing ability even more so.

Wentz over 0.5 INT (-143)

Sticking with the men under center, Fields is going to continue using his legs in this one. The Commanders’ defense has totaled 14 sacks on the year so far, and with his 18 taken sacks, he’s going to have some decisions to make. In his last 3 games, he’s exceeded 47 yards rushing, and with his total pass completion over at a mere 14.5, you expect him to have to use his feet, as well as let his backs continue to run hard. Washington’s defense ranks 14th in rushing yards per game allowed (110) so there is definitely some room to maneuver for Fields.

Fields over 40.5 rushing yards (-114)

Let’s get to the ‘fun’ stats. Carson Wentz is still going to pass the ball a fair amount, though the Bears ranked 9th in passing yards allowed (197), they also ranked 31st in opponents’ time on the field (33m28). So Washington is going to have plenty of opportunity with the ball in hand. Wentz’s favorite target this season has been Curtis Samuel, who’s been averaging 9 targets a game and averaging 56 yards per game. Furthermore, Chicago is allowing QBs on average a 65% completion rate, and three times this season when Wentz has had a 65% completion rate he has topped 300 yards every time. Look for Wentz to look Samuels’ way a fair amount here.

Curtis Samuel over 4.5 receptions (-122)

A reoccurring theme here seems to be choices based on how bad the other team is, and it continues. The Chicago Bears defense ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (170), even just at home (134) it’s not great. The problem is how murky the Commanders’ backfield situation is. Antonio Gibson has seen his snap share decrease week by week from 64% in week 1, to just 32% in week 5 as Brian Robinson returned from injury. Where this gets tough is we’re on a quick turnaround, and we can’t be certain that they’re going to throw Robinson Jr into an increased snap share so soon after injury and little rest time. His first game saw him rush 9 times for 22 yards, nothing to shout home about. If you’re feeling this is his time, his over is sitting at 46.5 yards but it continues to rise. Personally, I’m looking to pivot to something more consistent in their backfield, J.D McKissic. He has had at least 3 receptions in every game so far (over 2.5 receptions -158) and exceeded 30 yards in 3 of their 5 matchups. In a game I’m expecting Wentz to have close to 40 pass attempts, McKissic seems a safe bet at over 21.5 yards.

J.D McKissic over 21.5 receiving yards (-114)

 

Bonus Picks

Santos over 6.5 kicking points (+105)

The Bears rank 29th in touchdowns scored and 30th in the Redzone. I believe the game will be a low scorer like the points total suggests, even though the Commanders have given up at least 21 points in each game. Look for Cairo Santos to have a busy night.

Darnell Mooney longest reception over 19.5 yards (-115)

Washington ranks 19th in passing yards allowed (235), and although he doesn’t throw often, Justin Fields is averaging just under 40 yards per game for his longest completion. Darnell Mooney being his primary target may be worth looking into.