It’s Thursday Night Football time once again, as the San Francisco 49ers (9-4) travel to the Seattle Seahawks (7-6) in this NFC West clash that is a must-win for the Seahawks if they’re to have any chance of making the playoffs. The 49ers enter the night as modest -3.5 favorites after a complete demolition of the Buccaneers, most likely due to the injury to Deebo Samuel and 3rd choice quarterback Brock Purdy questionable, but likely to play. The Seahawks on the other hand come into the game off the back of a surprise defeat to Sam Darnold and the Panthers, looking to bounce back with the return of starting running back Kenneth Walker III.
Christian McCaffrey longest rush over 17.5 (-110)
Realistically, depending on how you feel you could take any McCaffrey prop and find some success with them. Over the last 3 games, McCaffrey from running back has the 3rd highest target share on the team (19.2%) and he’s been the dominant lead back since Elijah Mitchell landed on IR, and with Deebo Samuel now out too, he’ll be the focal point of this offense. In the last 2 games since Mitchell has been out, McCaffrey has had a rush of over 30 yards on both occasions (30+38) and is coming up against a Seahawks rush defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (160.5) and has been especially struggling in recent weeks giving up 225 yards per game in their last 3. His rushing line is a very achievable 79.5 (-115) but with Jordan Mason coming into the fray late in the Tampa game rushing for over 50 yards, him being limited in practice with his knee and it being a short week, they may limit his touches later in the game if they start to pull away.
Geno Smith over 0.5 interceptions (-140)
Geno Smith has arguably been the biggest surprise at quarterback this season, re-emerging as a starting NFL quarterback for the first time since 2014. He is averaging 264 yards, 23.5 completions and 2 touchdowns per game, which is a far cry from his last full season at the Giants (averaging 15 completions, 180 yards, 1 INT and 1 TD per game). He is however on a 3 game interception streak and is coming off of a 2 interception game last Sunday which will be fresh in his mind. As well as this, San Francisco ranks tied 2nd for most interceptions this season (14), and with the number 1 ranked rush defense in yards allowed per game (75.1) the Seahawks may be forced to throw the ball more than usual. Smith is one of the more aggressive quarterbacks when it comes to throwing in the endzone, with 14 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line, but he also ranks 29th in interceptable passes thrown per game (2.2). So look for the 49ers’ defense to take full advantage of his passing enthusiasm.
Robbie Gould over 2.5 extra points made (+129)
We love a good kicker prop on a Thursday, and after success with Carlson last week, we’re back with another. The 49ers hit 5 touchdowns against the Bucs on Sunday, and are ranked 9th for the season on average touchdowns scored per game (2.8). Alongside this, the Seahawks are 29th in touchdowns against per game (3) which makes for perfect viewing for Gould who has only missed 1 extra point in 35 attempts this season. Look for the 49ers to take advantage of a weak Seahawks rush defense and mediocre pass defense (18th in passing yards allowed – 218.2 per game) and score at least 3 touchdowns, something they’ve done 4 times in their last 6 games.
Christian McCaffrey 2+ touchdowns (+340)
We started with him and we’ll finish with him. This one is a little bolder but it’ll juice up a parlay with all of these selections, and I’d suggest using these in a round-robin. In his 2 career games against Seattle, McCaffrey has scored 2+ touchdowns and had 175+ scrimmage yards in both of them. With the injuries for the 49ers making him a focal point in the offense and Purdy possibly not at full health, as long as he stays healthy in the game, he’ll see a lot of usage both with the ball on the ground and in the air. Look for the 49ers to tire the Seahawk’s defense down with an aggressive run game and end up with McCaffrey breaking through for a couple of scores.
Bonus Pick – Last touchdown scorer 49ers D/ST (+2800)
This is obviously a shot in the dark, but with some reason to it. The game script may suggest the 49ers lead the game and with Geno Smith pushing his shots into the endzone late on, look for San Fran to get their 15th interception on the season, and their 3rd touchdown from an INT. This is merely for fun so I wouldn’t stake too much on this one.
(Disclaimer: If Purdy is out and Josh Johnson starts for the 49ers, you can pivot to players receiving yards, especially Brandon Aiyuk as in his 2 starts last season, Johnson had 40+ pass attempts and over 300 yards thrown in both.)
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.
