Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick and Preview
Non Conference NFL Matchups
Point Spread: Chiefs -8.5 | Total Points: 45.5
After a week 6 win over the Saints, the Buccaneers have now dropped two straight, including a 31-26 loss to the Falcons in week 8. This puts Tampa Bay at 4-4, leaving them 2nd in the NFC South. They are 1-2 in division play but have a 4-2 record against NFC opponents. Our power rankings have the Bucs 12th heading into week 9, and they have a 47.6% chance of making the playoffs and a 27.8% chance of winning the division.
Against the spread, Tampa Bay is 4-4, with two consecutive ATS losses. They were 1.5-point underdogs against the Falcons in week 8 but couldn’t cover. The over has hit in five straight Bucs games, including week 8, when the teams combined for 57 points, surpassing the 47.5-point line.
The Chiefs remain undefeated at 7-0, giving them a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 96.0% chance of winning the AFC West. They rank 4th in our NFL power rankings. Kansas City is 4-0 on the road and 3-0 at home, including a 27-20 win over the Raiders in week 8. The Chiefs were favored by 8.5 points but didn’t cover the spread. The O/U line was 43, and the teams combined for 47 points.
Kansas City has an average scoring margin of +7.1 points per game and is 4-2-1 against the spread. They are 3-2-1 as favorites and 1-0 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 3-4, with their games averaging 42.3 points compared to an average line of 45.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs History
Over their previous five games against the Chiefs, the Buccaneers have put together a record of 3-2. The last three times that the Chiefs have hosted the Buccaneers, the over/under record is 1-2 with the teams combining for an average of 46 points. The over/under record in their last three overall matchups is 1-2.
- Tampa Bay has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 26. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- When looking at their past three home matchups, Kansas City has an ATS record of 1-1-1 while averaging 24 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.
- Looking back on the team’s last three games as the underdog, the Buccaneers have a straight up record of 0-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 0-3.
- Through their last five matchups as the betting favorite, the Chiefs have a good straight up record, but their ATS mark is just 2-2-1.
Notable Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Tykee Smith – Concussion (Questionable)
- Silas Dzansi – Knee (Out)
- Evan Deckers – Hamstring (Out)
- Markees Watts – Quad (Out)
- SirVocea Dennis – Shoulder (Out)
- Kameron Johnson – Ankle (Out)
- Jamel Dean – Hamstring (Out)
- Bryce Hall – Ankle (Out)
- Cody Thompson – Shoulder (Out)
- Greg Gaines – Calf (Questionable)
- Sua Opeta – Knee (Out)
- Chase Edmonds – Knee (Out)
- Chris Godwin – Ankle (Out)
- Sterling Shepard – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Mike Evans – Hamstring (Out)
- Lavonte David – Ankle (Questionable)
Kansas City Chiefs
- Baylor Cupp – Undisclosed (Out)
- Rashee Rice – Knee (Out)
- Nazeeh Johnson – Concussion (Questionable)
- BJ Thompson – Chest (Out)
- McKade Mettauer – Knee (Out)
- Jody Fortson – Knee (Out)
- Mike Danna – Pectoral (Questionable)
- Jaylen Watson – Ankle (Out)
- Isiah Pacheco – Ankle (Out)
- Skyy Moore – Core Muscle (Out)
- JuJu Smith-Schuster – Hamstring (Questionable)
- Marquise Brown – Shoulder (Out)
- Charles Omenihu – Knee (Out)
Keys To Victory: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into week 9, the Buccaneers rank 6th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in both points per game (29.4) and yards per game (389.5), with 258.5 passing yards per game, ranking 2nd. Tampa Bay leads the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 52.5% success rate, and they are 4th in red zone attempts, although their red zone conversion rate is just 27th in the league.
Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards (37/50) and 3 touchdowns in week 8 without an interception. Cade Otton led the team with 9 catches for 81 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tampa Bay scored on all 3 of their red zone trips and converted 9 of 14 3rd-down attempts in the loss to Atlanta.
In their 31-26 loss to the Falcons, the Buccaneers’ defense struggled to defend the pass, giving up four touchdowns through the air. Atlanta completed 79.3% of their passes for 265 yards, averaging 9.1 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay’s defense also allowed the Falcons to convert on 50% of their third down attempts.
On the defensive front, the Buccaneers managed two sacks and had a positive differential in both quarterback hits and tackles for loss. Overall, the Buccaneers gave up 394 total yards, with 129 coming on the ground across 29 rushing attempts.
Keys To Victory: Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes bounced back in week 8 with a passer rating of 96, completing 27 of 38 passes for 262 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders. This followed a 154-yard, two-interception game in week 7. Travis Kelce led the team with 90 receiving yards on 10 catches, while Kareem Hunt rushed for 59 yards on 21 carries.
Heading into week 9, the Chiefs rank 9th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.7 points per game. They are 10th in total yards, with 348 per game, and 11th in passing yards, averaging 225.9. On 3rd down, they rank 2nd in the league with a conversion rate of 50.5%.
In their 27-20 win over the Raiders, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 33 rushing yards on 21 attempts, with the Raiders managing only 1.6 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite giving up two passing touchdowns, the Chiefs held the Raiders to 195 yards through the air and allowed just 24 completions. Their five sacks helped them control the game, and they also limited Las Vegas to a 46.2% third-down conversion rate.
The Chiefs’ defense pressured the quarterback throughout the game, finishing with a +5 advantage in QB hits and a +4 advantage in tackles for loss. The Raiders did have success in the passing game, with 80% of their passes being completed, but they were unable to generate many big plays down the field.
Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay has played well in their previous three road games, going 2-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 33 points per game while allowing 26. The team also performed well vs the spread at 2-1.
- Across the Chiefs last three home games, the team averaged 24 points per game while allowing 16. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-1-1, while going 3-0 straight-up.
- Going back to their last three games as the underdog, the Buccaneers have a straight up record of 0-3. But, their mark vs the spread was just 0-3.
- In their last ten games as the betting favorite, the Chiefs have a straight up record of 9-1 and an ATS mark of 5-3-2.
Prediction
- Kansas City Chiefs 23 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
