San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Pick and Preview

Posted on October 10, 2024

NFC West Divisional Matchup

Point Spread: 49ers -3.5 | Total Points: 49

After snapping a two-game losing streak with a week 4 win over the Patriots, the 49ers couldn’t keep the momentum going, falling 24-23 at home to the Cardinals in week 5. San Francisco entered the game as 7-point favorites but couldn’t hold on for the win, dropping their record to 2-3. They are now 0-2 in division play and 0-2 on the road, but they rank 4th in our NFL power rankings and have a 50.1% chance of making the playoffs.

So far, the 49ers are 2-3 against the spread, having been favored in all of their games this season. They have an average scoring margin of +4 points per game, and their O/U record is 3-2, with their games averaging 46.4 points (compared to an average line of 45.1).

Seattle heads into week 6 looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 29-20 home loss to the Giants in week 5. The Seahawks were favored by 7 points but couldn’t get the win, dropping their record to 3-2. Despite the loss, they remain 1st in the NFC West, but our power rankings have them at 22nd heading into this week.

We currently give Seattle a 28.8% chance of making the playoffs and a 22.4% chance of winning the division. Their average scoring margin is +1.6 points per game, and they are 1-3-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 4-1, with the over hitting in two straight games.

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks History

In the last three games between Seattle and San Francisco, the 49ers have dominated the series, going 3-0. This includes a convincing margin of victory of 16 points per contest. Across the last three head-to-head matchups, San Francisco is averaging 33 points compared to Seattle at 17.

In their last three games away from home, the 49ers have a straight-up record of 0-3 while going 0-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 21 points per game in these contests.
Across the Seahawks last five home games, the team averaged 21 points per game while allowing 25. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 1-2-2, while going 3-2 straight-up.
Through their last five games as the betting underdog, the Seahawks have a strong record vs the spread going 3-2. Their straight up mark in these contests is 1-4.
Looking back on the team’s last five games as the favorite, the 49ers have a straight up record of 2-3. Their record vs the spread in these games was 2-3.

Notable Injuries

San Francisco 49ers

Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles – Calf (Questionable)
Yetur Gross-Matos – Knee (Out)
Elijah Mitchell – Hamstring (Out)
Jordan Elliott – Knee (Questionable)
Curtis Robinson – Knee (Out)
Talanoa Hufanga – Wrist (Out)
Ambry Thomas – Forearm (Out)
Drake Jackson – Knee (Out)
Javon Hargrave – Triceps (Out)
George Kittle – Ribs (Questionable)
Christian McCaffrey – Calf/achilles (Out)
Jon Feliciano – Knee (Out)
Chris Conley – Oblique (Questionable)
Dre Greenlaw – Achilles (Out)
Charvarius Ward – Knee (Questionable)
Fred Warner – Ankle (Questionable)
Ji’Ayir Brown – Ankle (Questionable)
Jake Moody – Right Ankle (Doubtful)
Ricky Pearsall – Back (Out)

Seattle Seahawks

Byron Murphy II – Hamstring (Questionable)
Joshua Onujiogu – Undisclosed (Out)
Jerrick Reed II – Undisclosed (Out)
Derick Hall – Foot (Questionable)
Cameron Young – Knee (Questionable)
Uchenna Nwosu – Thigh (Out)
Pharaoh Brown – Groin (Probable)
Rayshawn Jenkins – Hand (Probable)
Julian Love – Hamstring (Questionable)
George Fant – Knee (Out)
Abraham Lucas – Knee (Out)
Riq Woolen – Ankle (Questionable)
Boye Mafe – Knee (Probable)
George Holani – Ankle (Out)
Marcus Simms – Undisclosed (Out)

Keys To Victory: San Francisco 49ers

So fa this season, the 49ers rank 8th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 25.2 points per game, which is 9th in the NFL. They are 2nd in the league in yards per game with 407.4, and they rank 4th in passing yards per game with 263.4, despite being 16th in passing attempts. On the ground, they are 7th in rushing yards per game, averaging 144 on 31 attempts per game. San Francisco is 5th in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate but ranks 22nd in red zone conversion percentage despite being 2nd in red zone attempts.

In week 5, the 49ers scored 23 points, all in the first half, in a loss to the Cardinals. Brock Purdy threw for 244 yards, with 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions. Jordan Mason rushed for 89 yards on 14 carries, while Brandon Aiyuk had 8 catches for 147 yards. San Francisco converted 6 of 11 3rd-down attempts, but only 1 of 6 red zone opportunities.

In their 24-23 loss to the Cardinals, the 49ers’ defense allowed 358 total yards and struggled against the run, giving up 169 yards on just 26 attempts (6.5 per attempt). Despite their issues against the run, they did hold Arizona to 30% on third down and allowed just 189 passing yards.

San Francisco’s defense picked off one pass and allowed one passing touchdown. They managed one sack and had three fewer quarterback hits than the Cardinals.

Keys To Victory: Seattle Seahawks

Leading up to this week 6 matchup, the Seahawks are 20th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing attempts per game (39.8) and rank 3rd in passing yards per game, averaging 270.8. Geno Smith threw for 284 yards (28/40) and a touchdown in week 5, after his 395-yard performance in week 4. Seattle is 16th in 3rd-down conversion rate (37.3%) but ranks 7th in red zone conversion percentage.

Seattle is 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.4, and they are 6th in yards per game with 376.2. In week 5, they scored 7 points in both the 1st and 4th quarters. Geno Smith was sacked 7 times in week 5, and Tyler Lockett led the team with 75 receiving yards on 4 catches.

In their 29-20 loss to the Giants, the Seahawks defense allowed 420 yards and 175 rushing yards on 34 attempts (5.1 yards per attempt). They gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Giants to convert on 43.8% of their third-down attempts. Seattle did manage three sacks in the game and held the Giants to a 7.2 yards per attempt in the passing game.

The Giants finished with 245 passing yards and a 67.6% completion percentage against the Seahawks. Additionally, Seattle’s defense had three sacks but lost the tackles for loss differential by -4.

Betting Trends

In their last five games away from home, the 49ers have a straight up record of 2-3 while going 2-3 vs. the spread. The team averaged 27 points per game in this stretch.
In their last three home games, the Seahawks have a straight up record of 2-1 while going 0-2-1 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 24 points per game in these contests.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Seahawks have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 2-8.
Spanning across their last ten games as the betting favorite, the 49ers have gone 3-7 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 5-5.