Money Where Your Mouth Is
To say I am shocked we are already past the halfway point of the NFL season is an understatement. I feel as though I blinked and week 9 is here! This feels like a good spot to take a glance at how we’ve been tracking this season. We have had four weeks with profit, and four weeks where we lost money. Overall, we are up 13 units. We need to start grinding and moving on! We had a couple of tough weeks lately, but it’s time to turn that around. Here is where the records lie:
- Straight props: 22-12
- Anytime TD: 8-14
- Player Prop Parlays: 3-5
I can feel it in my bones that we will have a straight prop sweep for week 9! Let’s get into the nitty-gritty.
Props
Bo Nix Over 218.5 passing yards (-114)
If you’ve been sleeping on the Broncos, they are currently 5-3 and Bo Nix looks to be improving each week he’s facing NFL competition—certainly not a good thing for the rest of the AFC West. This is a great matchup for Sean Payton to use his rookie QB and expose the WEAK Ravens’ secondary. The average giving up 291 passing yards a game. The worst in the NFL. If Bo Nix doesn’t hit this number, then the hype is not real. It would make no sense for Sean Payton to try and run the ball against the best run defense. It would make complete sense to attack the worst pass defense. Can’t wait to see how this pans out…
Brock Bowers Over 64.5 receiving yards (-114)
Rookie tight ends may not be having the best year, but Brock Bowers is certainly having an impact on the Raiders offense. Four straight games with at least 5 receptions and 50+ yards. He is being targeted plentifully and is the only weapon on this offense for the most part. He will face the Bengals this week, who tend to allow tight ends to have their way. Last week, Grant Calcaterra had 3 catches for 58 yards. Who? Just kidding. But imagine what Brock can do! David Njoku had a great game against the same defense. You see my point. Feed Brock!
Alvin Kamara Over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)
Another line I fell in love with when I came across it. Simply put, the Panthers STINK against the run. They allow the most yards per game in the NFL. I will happily bet on a good running back against a garbage defense. If you want a safer play for the player prop parlay, use Kamara’s alternate of 60+ rushing yards, or even the alternate 90+ rushing and receiving yards. I see Kamara clearing both of those, so pick your poison! Kamara cleared 67.5 in week one against the Panthers and has topped this mark in 5 of 8 games this season. Let’s rock n roll with Kamara this week.
Jameis Winston 2+ passing TDs (+142)
I chose to go against the grain on this one. Look if nothing else, the Browns played exciting football last week! Jameis threw for 300+ and 3 TDs! Now that’s fun football. This week, Jameis will be tossing the rock against a pretty stout defense. That’s for sure. The Chargers defensive unit is top 10 this season against the pass. Allowing less than 200 yards per game. But the Jameis effect is in motion. He has nothing to lose and everything to gain. At home against the Chargers, I’ll take my chances on Famous Jameis!
Anytime Touchdowns
Chuba Hubbard +100
A good spot for Hubbard to find the endzone this week against a weaker run defense. The Saints love giving up touchdowns to running backs. With Jonathon Brooks rumored to be making his debut off of IR, they will likely lean on Hubbard at the goal line should they find themselves in that situation. I’ll bet on a guy who can get 20 touches any given week.
Josh Allen +105
As a Dolphins fan, nothing feels like more of a lock than Josh Allen running in a touchdown against us. Allen has done so in 4 out of 13 matchups in his career. May not sound sexy, but it matters considering he is a running quarterback. I am not happy to put my money on Josh Allen this week against my team, but if he’s going to do it, I may as well profit from it. The Bills passing game is starting to get the wheels churning a bit more, so I think Miami will force Josh to run it – or try to.
Elijah Moore +310
I’m going to attempt a correlation bet here. We are on Jameis 2+ passing TDs, so let’s shoot for one of those to be Elijah Moore. Why? Since the Amari Cooper trade, Moore has been involved in the offense plenty. Six catches on six targets two weeks ago and eight catches on 12 targets last week. With David Njoku questionable to play, Moore could be relied on even more this week. I’ll take my chances on Moore here.
