NFL Prop Bets Week 4
Week 4 is going to be a good one. I have a feeling. We did really well in last week’s picks, so I feel we will keep that rolling into week 4!
There’s nothing better than a huge hit in betting. Much like the Olave, Jennings, and Thielen touchdown scorers parlay we hit! That was a fun one to watch. Thielen was the last leg we needed, and it was almost halftime, and he caught a 30-some yarder for a touchdown. He also got hurt in the process so he literally laid it all out on the line for our parlay, you love to see that. Thanks, Adam! I am completely kidding of course. I hope Adam Thielen is okay and recovers from the hamstring injury as quickly as possible!
Season Long Tracking:
- Straight props: 8-7
- Anytime TD: 3-4
- Player Prop Parlays: 1-2
Now that week 4 is right in front of us, we need to lock in and find some props to win us some money this week. There are many injuries currently and plenty of opportunities for new faces to make a name for themselves! And for us to win some money….let’s see what we can cook up for week 4!
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— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) September 22, 2024
Diontae Johnson O 5.5 receptions (+108 FanDuel)
If Adam Thielen was healthy, he would most likely be in this slot, instead, his teammate Diontae Johnson will be. Diontae saw 14 targets last week and that’s what drew me to his line this week. He had multiple targets with Thielen on the field last week, and multiple targets without him. So Thielen’s absence doesn’t change anything for me. I”ll say this, I will make this prop 5+ in our parlay. Straight bet will be over 5.5 for the + odds. The Bengals are HUNGRY for a win, Andy Dalton would love to get a win over his former team, and the Panthers have some positive energy going on after the win against the Raiders.
To me, Diontae will be part of the gameplan from the get-go, and I want to profit from that if I can! Feed Diontae!
Derek Carr U 220.5 passing yards (-114 FanDuel)
This is one of those picks that in reality, I hate it. There’s nothing I love more than watching Derek Carr hang 300+ yards on defenses. However, the Falcons defense has been pretty stellar against opposing quarterbacks through the first three weeks. Fields and Hurts each threw for less than 200 yards and Mahomes was held to 217, which is also under the line for Derek Carr this week. For this bet not to hit means Carr connected on a deep ball or two. Against a stout pass defense, I’ll take the risk!
Breece Hall O 67.5 rushing yards (-114 FanDuel)
Breece Hall has yet to have that massive game this season where he racks up a ton of rushing yards. Something tells me this could be the week. If you look at the running backs the Broncos have faced this season, it is not very impressive what they have allowed and to who they gave up the yards. Minus Kenneth Walker, who racked up 103 yards in the opener. Najee Harris had 69 yards in week two, and Bucky Irving had 70 last week so if those two average rushers are getting to Breece’s line, Breece can certainly surpass it in my opinion. The only worry would be Braelon Allen and how much he will be involved on offense. However, Breece Hall can hit 68 yards on one rush! Let’s rock ‘n roll with Breece Hall this week.
I will be using Breece Hall 60+ rushing yards as the third leg in our player prop parlay, but will straight bet the over 67.5 rushing yards.
Aaron Jones O 13.5 rushing attempts
This matchup is between two smart coaches and I don’t see Kevin O’Connell not utilizing the rush if it gives him an advantage. I don’t think we see Jones put up a lot of rushing yards, as the Packers’ run defense is solid. So I don’t see Aaron Jones smashing this number. I see it ending up rather tight around 14-16 touches. He has recorded 19 touches, 9, and 14 this season. The trend would tell you to bet the over, but I am relying more on the coaching and the player here. Feed Aaron Jones and you’ll walk out of week 4 with a win, coach!
Anytime Touchdown
Chase Brown +240
I know what you’re thinking and yes, Moss has had the touchdowns thus far but don’t let that scare you off! Chase Brown is seeing more looks in the offense and this week is the week he finds the endzone. His rushing attempts went up which makes me believe the Bengals are trusting him with the ball in his hands. They have a favorable opponent too. This is a get-right spot for the Bengals and Chase Brown is going to be part of it if you ask me. Let’s see Chase find pay dirt this weekend!
Darnell Mooney +270
First of all, if he is on waivers in your fantasy leagues, I would add him. He’s averaging 6 targets a game through the first 3 games and his involvement in the offense has increased. My eyes tell me Mooney & Cousins have found a good connection. Hopefully, my eyes are not deceiving me! We saw Mooney score once this season and even had his chance on Sunday night last week. Against a division rival, with Lattimore shadowing Drake London (optimistically), Mooney has a great chance in front of him to capitalize. Fingers crossed he does!
Brian Robinson Jr. +100
This has to be at +100 purely because of Jayden Daniels’s rushing threat at the goal line, because Austin Ekeler is out with a concussion and Brian Robinson has no competition at RB after Ekeler. Either way, I love the way this offense is moving up and down the field so far. I think it can continue, and I don’t think the Cardinals will shut it down. I’ll take the risk of Robinson losing a goal line carry to Jayden Daniels if it means I can instantly double my money if Robinson finds the endzone! Let’s go BRob!
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