Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers Pick and Preview
NFC Divisional Round Matchup
Point Spread: Cowboys +4.0 | Total Points: 46.0
Coming into to this week’s NFC Divisional Round matchup vs. the 49ers, the Cowboys have an above .500 record at 12-5. Dallas is looking to advance to the NFC Championship, as they defeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers by a 31-14. This win was paired with an ATS victory, as they went into the game by -3.0 point favorites. With an over-under betting line of 45.5, the two teams fell below that figure as they combined for 45.
This week, the 49ers host the Cowboys, having won 10 straight games leading to an overall record of 13-4. Returning to last week, the 49ers defeated the Seahawks by scoring 41-23. Not only did San Francisco walk home with the win, but they also covered the spread as -9.5 point favorites. With their combined 64 points, the two teams exceeded the betting over-under number of 42.
Cowboys vs. 49ers History
When looking back on the last 3 head-to-head matchups between San Francisco and Dallas, the Cowboys hold the edge with a record of 2-1 with an average scoring differential of 10 points.
Regarding betting, Dallas holds a recent edge vs. the spread, going 3-2 in the previous 5 meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 49, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.
Notable Injuries
Dallas Cowboys
- Jayron Kearse (Knee) Questionable
- DeMarcus Lawrence (Foot) Questionable
- Jason Peters (Hip) Questionable
- Tyron Smith (Knee) Probable
- Israel Mukuamu (Hamstring) Probable
- Matt Farniok (Hamstring) Questionable
- Trayvon Mullen (Illness) Probable
San Francisco 49ers
- Javon Kinlaw (Knee) Questionable
- Ambry Thomas (Ankle) Questionable
- Kalia Davis (Undisclosed) Questionable
- Jauan Jennings (Ankle) Questionable
- Samson Ebukam (Ankle) Questionable
- Jimmy Garoppolo (Foot) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott and the Dallas passing attack come into the game ranked just 19th in passing attempts. This below-average figure has led to Prescott throwing for a total of 2860 yards on a completion percentage of 66.2%. Dallas will need to continue getting receiver CeeDee Lamb involved, as he has caught 68.6% of the passes thrown his way for a total of 1359 receiving yards.
One of the best matchups to watch in this game is in the trenches, as the Cowboys are one of the top rushing offenses in the league at 135.2 yards per game. On the other side, the 49ers are ranked 2nd in rush yards allowed.
Keys To Victory: San Francisco 49ers
On offense, San Francisco boasts one of the NFL’s top scoring units at 26.5 points per game, good for 6th in the league. Currently, the team’s offensive production has led to an average scoring differential of 10.2 points. Heading into this week’s action, the 49ers are averaging 30.1 yards per game through the pass, placing them 27th in the league. There is a chance that the team struggles to move the ball through the air against a Cowboys defense that has defended the pass well this year. Quarterback Brock Purdy leads the way for San Francisco, who comes into the game with a total of 1374 passing yards. So far, Purdy has one of the better passer ratings in the league (107.33) and will need to continue playing well vs. a tough defense vs. the pass. So far, the team’s top receiving threat has been Brandon Aiyuk, who comes into the game with 1015 receiving yards. For the season, he has been the recipient of 39.0% of the pass attempts to wide receivers.
On the ground, the 49ers should be able to put in yet another strong performance, as they are currently the 8th ranked team in rush yards per game and face off vs. a defense that is vulnerable up front. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. Through 17 games, he has rushed for a total of 1139 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Dallas is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Dallas is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Dallas is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- Dallas is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
This is a challenging game to gauge. Is Brock Purdy the real deal? If you think he is, take the 49ers; if you don’t bet on the Cowboys, it’s really that simple. The 49ers aren’t going to be able to get a win without their young quarterback making plays. This game is too close to call. Honestly, we suggest not betting on this one.
The 49ers win in a very close game.
