Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills Pick and Preview
AFC Divisional Round Matchup
Point Spread: Bengals +5.5 | Total Points: 48.5
Coming into this AFC Divisional round matchup, the Bengals are in the middle of an 8-game winning streak and have an above .500 record of 12-4. Cincinnati will be looking to add another win to their resume after knocking off the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card round. Even though Cincinnati picked up the win, they failed to cover the spread as -8.0 point favorites. In terms of the over-under, the teams combined for 41 points, which surpassed the betting line of 40.
Heading into this week’s matchup against Cincinnati, the Bills have won 7 straight games and have a record of 13-3. On Wild Card Weekend, the Bills took down the Dolphins by a score of 34-31. Buffalo did not cover the spread in their win, as they entered as the -14.0 point favorites. The teams combined for a total of 65 points, which surpassed the over-under betting line of 44.
Bengals vs. Bills History
In the last three head-to-head matchups, the Bills are averaging 17 points per game, compared to the Bengals at 16. These figures have led to Buffalo posting a record of 2-1.
Buffalo will look to do a better job at home in this series, as across their three most recent home games vs. Cincinnati, they are just 1-2. In terms of betting, Cincinnati holds a contemporary edge vs the spread, going 3-2 in the previous five meetings. These games have finished with an average point total of 41, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.
Notable Injuries
Cincinnati Bengals
- Alex Cappa (Ankle) Questionable
- Jonah Williams (Knee) Questionable
- Tre Flowers (Hamstring) Questionable
- Michael Thomas (Hamstring) Probable
- Eli Apple (Neck) Probable
- Joseph Ossai (Shoulder) Probable
- Tycen Anderson (Hamstring) Questionable
Buffalo Bills
- Jordan Phillips (Shoulder) Questionable
- Jamison Crowder (Ankle) Questionable
- Jordan Poyer (Knee) Questionable
- Micah Hyde (Neck) Questionable
- DaQuan Jones (Calf) Questionable
- Cam Lewis (Forearm) Probable
- Isaiah McKenzie (Hamstring) Probable
- Josh Allen (Elbow) Probable
- Dane Jackson (Knee) Questionable
Keys To Victory: Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback Joe Burrow will try to lead the Bengals to a win despite being 5.5-point underdogs on the road. Cincinnati is averaging 26.1 points per game as a team, placing them 7th in the NFL. This season, he has completed 68.3% of his passes, leading an average of 279.7 yards per game in the passing attack. In his last performance, he threw for 209 yards and a touchdown. Ja’Marr Chase has been targeted 134 times and has caught 64.9% of the passes thrown his way. He comes into the game with a total of 1046 receiving yards.
Cincinnati has put together a robust scoring offense despite their struggles to put together a solid rushing attack. Against Buffalo, running back Joe Mixon is expected to get his fair share of carries and has run for a total of 814 this year. As a team, Cincinnati is just 29th in the NFL in rush yards per game.
Keys To Victory: Buffalo Bills
Coming into this week’s matchup, the Bills feature one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 28.4 points per contest (2nd). This season, the team has accounted for 61.0% of the scoring in their games. Look for the Bills to rely heavily on the passing attack in this week’s matchup, as not only are they one of the better teams at moving the ball through the air, but they have a good matchup against a Bengals defense that is ranked 23rd in yards per game vs the pass. Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen comes into this week’s game with an excellent matchup vs. a Cincinnati defense, allowing an average of 214.6 yards per game through the air. So far, Allen has thrown for 4283 yards and has one of the best passer ratings at 96.6. Going into the game, the team’s leader in receiving yards is Stefon Diggs, who has caught 70.1% of the balls thrown his way for a total of 1429 yards.
Something will have to give in this week’s matchup between the Buffalo ground game and the Cincinnati front seven, as the Bills are one of the league’s top rushing attacks but will need to be on top of their game; the Bengals have been tough to run against this year. So far, the team’s leading rusher is Devin Singletary, who is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt. Through 16 games, he has rushed for a total of 819 yards on the ground.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.
- Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games at home.
- Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the underdog.
- Cincinnati is 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 games as the favorite.
Prediction
This game could go either way, and we feel the points are too high. The latest NFL odds show the Bills -5.5 favorites, and we feel this is more of a field goal-winning game. The Bengals were in this exact same spot last year and upset the Chiefs on the road, don’t take them lightly.
We like the Bills, but the Bengals to cover.
