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NFL Picks and Predictions Week 9

By Robert Hayek

Posted on October 31, 2024

NFL PICKS AND PREDICTIONS WEEK 9

It was a weird week. I did better on the spread than I did on the moneyline. In hindsight, that’s not a horrible thing, as most people make their living (I sincerely hope not) on the spread. Week 8 taught us a few things. First, the Detroit Lions are probably the best team in the NFC right now. Also, the Kansas City Chiefs continue to find ways to win. Will both keep it up this week? Both are featured this week in my seven games.

Check out my record below:

Moneyline: 4-3 (36-19 Overall)
ATS: 5-2 (25-30 Overall)
O/U: 3-4 (23-32 Overall)

You know by now that I use team rankings to support my picks. Also, don’t forget our power rankings. They help a lot, especially when determining which teams are performing well or poorly. These are my seven favorite games this week.

Check out all our NFL Picks Here.

BRONCOS (+9.5) VS. RAVENS (45.5)

The Broncos are 18th in points per game.
The Ravens are 28th in points allowed per game.
The Ravens are first in points per game.
The Broncos are fourth in points allowed per game.
The Ravens lead the all-time head-to-head series 10-6.
The Ravens edged out the Broncos 10-9 in their last showdown on December 4, 2022.
The Ravens have won three in a row against the Broncos.
The Ravens have won the last three games by an average of 10 points.
The Broncos are 6-2 against the spread.
The Ravens are 4-3-1 against the spread.

The Denver Broncos are heavy underdogs despite having one of the best defenses in the NFL. Surprisingly, they have gone 4-1 over their past five games after starting the season 0-2. But their next two weeks will be major tests as they face the Baltimore Ravens and then the Kansas City Chiefs. This week, they travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens, who just suffered an embarrassing loss to the Cleveland Browns last week.

The line is way too high. I don’t think the Ravens will destroy the Broncos. While I still don’t have much faith in the Denver offense, I do like the defense and believe they will stall the Baltimore offense. However, I do think the Ravens will escape this one with a victory.

Prediction: Ravens 23, Broncos 16

Picks: Broncos +9.5, U 45.5

DOLPHINS (+6.5) VS. BILLS (47.5)

The Dolphins are last in points per game.
The Bills are ninth in points allowed per game.
The Bills are fifth in points per game.
The Dolphins are 10th in points allowed per game.
The Dolphins lead the head-to-head series 62-59-1.
The Bills destroyed the Dolphins 31-10 earlier this season in a rout at Hard Rock Stadium.
The Bills have won five in a row against the Dolphins.
The Bills have won eight home games in a row against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are 1-6 against the spread.
The Bills are 5-3 against the spread.

The Dolphins are 2-6 after a pathetic home loss to the Arizona Cardinals despite Tua Tagovailoa’s return. Now, they sit at a crossroads with a nearly impossible road ahead of them as they attempt to go into a house of horrors where they have not beaten the Bills in almost a decade. The Bills are rolling after dominating the Seahawks last week and rolling on all cylinders with three straight wins.

I do believe the Dolphins have a chance to win this game. Yes, the Bills blew the Dolphins out at home last season, but the two games before this were by a combined six points. But it’s hard to pick against a team that already blew the Dolphins out this season in their own home. While I believe it will be closer, I still believe the Bills edge them out.

Prediction: Bills 31, Dolphins 27

Picks: Dolphins +6.5, O 47.5

COWBOYS (+2.5) VS. FALCONS (51.5)

The Cowboys are 23rd in points per game.
The Falcons are 21st in points allowed per game.
The Falcons are ninth in points per game.
The Cowboys are 24th in points allowed per game.
The Cowboys lead the head-to-head series 19-11.
The Cowboys defeated the Falcons 43-3 in their last showdown on November 14, 2021.
The Cowboys have won three in a row against the Falcons.
Dak Prescott has 1,130 passing yards and three touchdowns over four career games against the Falcons.
The Cowboys are 3-4 against the spread.
The Falcons are 4-4 against the spread.

The Dallas Cowboys find themselves in dire straights after yet another defeat, coming into this game with a 3-4 record. It will not get any easier as they head to Georgia to face the Atlanta Falcons, who just completed a season sweep of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, gaining a stranglehold in the NFC South.

The Cowboys had a golden opportunity to shock the 49ers last week. But they couldn’t stop Brock Purdy. Meanwhile, the Falcons look firmly in the driver’s seat after last week’s battle. The Cowboys are 3-1 on the road, and the Falcons are 2-3 at home. However, I think the Falcons will finally solve their issues in front of their home crowd because they will utilize Bijan Robinson to set up strong runs and short passes.

Prediction: Falcons 24, Cowboys 23

Picks: Cowboys +2.5, U 51.5

RAMS (-1.5) VS. SEAHAWKS (48.5)

The Rams are 25th in points per game.
The Seahawks are 20th in points allowed per game.
The Seahawks are 10th in points per game.
The Rams are 15th in points allowed per game.
The Seahawks lead the all-time head-to-head series 27-26.
The Rams swept the season series last season, including a 17-16 win at Sofi Stadium in the last game.
The Rams are 3-2 over the past five games against the Seahawks.
The Rams are 3-2 over the past five games against the Seahawks at Lumen Field.
The Rams are 2-5 against the spread.
The Seahawks are 2-5-1 against the spread.

The Rams got their biggest win of the season last week, dominating the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday Night Football to put themselves at 3-4. It has not been the easiest season for them. However, they are back in the race and have their star players back, as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nicua are back and better than ever. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have completely fallen apart after starting 3-0, going 1-4 over their past five games.

It is hard to trust the Seahawks right now. Conversely, the Rams look like they are heating up. Additionally, consider the fact that the Rams have done well against the Seahawks in the Sean McVay era. I am rocking with the Rams to edge out the Seahawks on the road.

Prediction: Rams 23, Seahawks 20

Picks: Rams -1.5, U 48.5

LIONS (-3.5) VS. PACKERS (47.5)

The Lions are fourth in points per game.
The Packers are 12th in points allowed per game.
The Packers are sixth in points per game.
The Lions are seventh in points allowed per game.
The Packers lead the all-time head-to-head series 106-76-7.
The Packers defeated the Lions 29-22 in the last matchup on Thanksgiving Day 2023.
The Lions are 4-1 over the past five games against the Packers.
The Packers are 3-2 over five games against the Lions at Lambeau Field, but the Lions have won the last two.
The Lions are 6-1 against the spread.
The Packers are 4-4 against the spread.

The Lions look unbeatable after scoring 52 points last week against the Tennessee Titans. Moreover, they have gone over 40 points in three of four games and 30 or more points in four consecutive games. This offense is tough to stop, and it will give the Green Bay defense a massive challenge. The Packers are 6-2 but lost Jordan Love for the second time this season with a groin strain. Malik Willis will likely start. That’s not a good thing for Green Bay.

The Lions have done well recently against the Packers, taking the last two at Lambeau Field. It’s hard to comprehend anyone taking them down right now. The Lions roar again this week against the Packers.

Prediction: Lions 38, Packers 24

Picks: Lions -3.5, O 47.5

COLTS (+5.5) VS. VIKINGS (46.5)

The Colts are 16th in points per game.
The Vikings are eighth in points allowed per game.
The Vikings are 12th in points per game.
The Colts are 14th in points allowed per game.
The Colts lead the all-time head-to-head series 18-8-1.
The Vikings won a thrilling 39-36 overtime battle against the Colts in their last encounter on December 17, 2022.
The Colts are 4-1 over the past five games against the Vikings.
The Colts are 5-0 against the spread over the past five games against the Vikings/
The Colts are 7-1 against the spread.
The Vikings are 5-2 against the spread.

The Colts are 4-4 but still dealing with some turmoil, as they have benched Anthony Richardson in favor of Joe Flacco for this weekend. That means the spread has changed slightly, with the Colts gaining a point in the line. They have not played badly. However, they have been maddingly inconsistent. The Vikings have lost two in a row after winning five in a row to start the season. Somehow, they are in third place in this amazing NFC North.

Flacco is 5-0 against the Vikings, who look battered right now. Yet, it is tough to trust the Colts on the road in front of a hostile crowd in Minneapolis. I believe the Vikings get the job done on Sunday Night at home.

Prediction: Vikings 23, Colts 20

Picks: Colts +5.5, U 47.5

BUCCANEERS (+9.5) VS. CHIEFS (44.5)

The Buccaneers are third in points per game.
The Chiefs are fifth in points allowed per game.
The Chiefs are 17th in points per game.
The Buccaneers are 30th in points allowed per game.
The Buccaneers lead the all-time head-to-head series 8-7.
The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers 41-31 in their last battle on October 2, 2022.
The Buccaneers defeated the Chiefs 31-9 in Super Bowl LV.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 over the past five games against the Chiefs.
The Buccaneers are 4-4 against the spread.
The Chiefs are 5-2 against the spread.

The Buccaneers have stumbled lately, falling to 4-4 after going 1-3 over a four-game stretch. Unfortunately, injuries have taken their toll as the Bucs lost Mike Evans for a few weeks and Chris Godwin for the season. Thus, they now rely on Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to carry them in the running game while Cade Otton catches passes. Sterling Shepard is their only reliable receiver left that can catch passes. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are the only unbeaten team left after surviving the Las Vegas Raiders, winning with one the best defenses in the NFL.

This was a much better game on paper before Evans and Godwin got hurt. Unfortunately, neither will suit up for this game, making it tough for the Bucs to do anything. They are simply too battered on offense and defense to keep up with a stiffening Kansas City team.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 13

Picks: Chiefs -9.5, U 44.5