NFL Picks and Predictions Week 6

Posted on October 12, 2024

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 6

It was a mixed week for me. I lost a few games I could have easily won (thank you, Cincinnati Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, and Pittsburgh Steelers for collapsing). Every single one of those teams had a significant lead at one point in their games. This week will provide another slate of solid games, including a few divisional showdowns. It’s important to know about injuries, too, as we get deeper into the season.

Check out my record below:

Moneyline: 4-3 (24-11 overall)
ATS: 3-4 (16-19 overall)
O/U: 3-4 (14-21 overall)

The power rankings continue to show teams moving up and down. Teams like the Washington Commanders and Minnesota Vikings rank much higher, while the San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, and Los Angeles Rams have taken a tumble.

Our NFL odds will give you valuable intel on how the sportsbooks treat these games. I also plucked stats from team rankings to show how these teams are doing in certain aspects.

BUCCANEERS (-2.5) VS. SAINTS (42.5)

The Buccaneers are ninth in points per game this season.
The Saints are fourth in points allowed per game.
The Saints are tied for fourth in points per game.
The Buccaneers are tied for 17th in points allowed per game.
The Saints lead the head-to-head series 40-25.
The teams split the series last season, with the Bucs winning 26-9 at the Caesars Superdome and the Saints winning 23-13 at Raymond James Stadium.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 over the past five games between the teams.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 at the Caesars Superdome over the past five games.
Baker Mayfield is 2-1 against the Saints.
The Buccaneers are 3-2 against the spread.
The Saints are 3-1 against the spread.

The Buccaneers fell short, losing to the Atlanta Falcons 36-30 in overtime on Thursday Night Football last week. Baker Mayfield was still efficient, throwing 180 yards but firing three touchdowns. But it was an effective day on the ground for the Bucs, who got 158 rushing yards from Mayfield, Rachaad White, and Bucky Irving. Unfortunately, the defense collapsed. This week, the Bucs will face the Saints, who lost Derek Carr to an oblique injury, which will likely sideline him for this game. That gives the Bucs a considerable advantage.

The Saints fell 26-13 to the Kansas City Chiefs and lost Derek Carr to injury. Now, they must rely on Spencer Rattler. That’s not good at all. Alvin Kamara struggled against the Chiefs, rushing 11 times for 26 yards but caught six passes for 40 yards. The Saints will rely heavily on Kamara to overcome Carr’s absence. The Saints must create plays for him and short passes for Chris Olave.

If Carr had been healthy, the Saints might have had a chance to win this game. Instead, they will rely on an untested backup quarterback while facing a high-potent offense that continues to score without trouble. The Bucs will win this game through a steady running game and quick slant passes.

Prediction: Buccaneers 24, Saints 13

Picks: Buccaneers -2.5, U 42.5

COMMANDERS (+6.5) VS. RAVENS (51.5)

The Commanders are first in points per game.
The Ravens are 26th in points allowed per game.
The Ravens are second in points per game.
The Commanders are tied for 20th in points allowed per game.
The Ravens lead the head-to-head series 4-3.
The Ravens won the last battle between the teams, 31-17, on October 4, 2020, at FedEx Field.
The Ravens have split their two games with the Commanders at M&T Bank Stadium.
Lamar Jackson is 21-3 against the NFC in his career.
The Commanders are 4-1 against the spread.
The Ravens are 3-2 against the spread.

The Commanders won their fourth in a row after dispatching the Cleveland Browns 34-13. It was another big day for Jayden Daniels, who went 14 for 25 with 238 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception while also running 11 times for 82 yards. The Commanders amassed 215 rushing yards, stomping all over the Browns. Now, they will face a vulnerable Ravens team that is 3-2 despite a poor defensive showing recently.

The Ravens won their third game in a row after winning a thrilling overtime 41-38 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Lamar Jackson was excellent, going 26 for 42 with 348 yards passing and four touchdowns while also running 12 times for 55 yards. Derrick Henry was once again excellent, running 15 times for 92 yards and a touchdown. The Ravens are firing on all cylinders after starting the season 0-2 but will face a red-hot Commanders team that has shown they can hang with anyone.

The Commanders have looked amazing. However, they will face their toughest opponent to date, the Ravens, who are the hardest-hitting team they will encounter. This will probably be the best matchup of the season, with the MVP (Jackson) facing a potential future MVP (Daniels). Plus, it’s also the Beltway Bowl, as these teams are separated by 30 miles. I expect the Ravens and their veteran leadership to outlast the Commanders. Take Baltimore to win this game.

Prediction: Ravens 30, Commanders 27

Picks: Commanders +6.5, O 51.5

CARDINALS (+4.5) VS. PACKERS (49.5)

The Cardinals are 12th in points per game.
The Packers are 14th in points allowed per game.
The Packers are tied for eighth in points per game.
The Cardinals are 27th in points allowed per game.
The Packers lead the head-to-head series 46-26-1.
The Packers defeated the Cardinals 24-21 in the last showdown on October 28, 2021.
The Cardinals are 3-2 against the Packers over the past five games.
The Packers are 4-1 over the past five games against the Cardinals at Lambeau Field but have not beaten them since 2012.
The Cardinals are 3-2 against the spread.
The Packers are 3-2 against the spread.

The Cardinals stunned the San Francisco 49ers 24-23, rallying from a 13-point deficit to steal the win. Kyler Murray was the king in this game, going 19 for 30 with 195 yards passing, one touchdown, and one interception while also running seven times for 83 yards and a score. James Connor found his footing in the second half, finishing with 19 rushing attempts for 86 yards. The Cards capitalized on three costly Niners turnovers to swing the momentum around. They will head to Lambeau Field and attempt to take down the Packers.

The Packers defeated the Los Angeles Rams 24-19, holding back a furious rally and winning this game. Jordan Love was efficient, going 15 for 26 with 224 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. Tucker Kraft had four catches for 88 yards and rumbled twice into the endzone. Now, the Packers will host the Cardinals, welcoming them into their stadium for a showdown with one of the most electric quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Cardinals have a challenging task ahead of them. While they shocked the 49ers last week, the Packers will present a unique obstacle. The Packers have bent but not broken on defense. Subsequently, Love will find ways to get the football to his receivers and help the Packers overcome the Cards. I do think the Cardinals make them earn it in a gritty game.

Prediction: Packers 20, Cardinals 17

Picks: Cardinals +4.5, (U 49.5)

CHARGERS (-1.5) VS. BRONCOS (36.5)

The Chargers are 28th in points per game.
The Broncos are tied for second in points allowed per game.
The Broncos are 22nd in points per game.
The Chargers are the best team in the NFL in points allowed per game.
The Broncos lead the head-to-head series 73-55-1.
The Broncos have won three in a row in this series.
The Broncos defeated the Chargers 16-9 in the last showdown on December 31, 2023.
Justin Herbert is 3-4 against the Broncos in his career.
The Chargers are 2-3 after a bye week since 2019.
The Chargers are 2-2 against the spread.
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread.

The Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for this one, which might give them the advantage. Additionally, they are attempting to break a two-game losing streak, but this trip to Denver will be tough, especially against a team that has beaten them three times in a row. The Chargers need Justin Herbert to find open receivers, especially against one of the best defenses in the NFL. Coach Jim Harbaugh will want to run the football, but that has not been easy for Denver opponents lately.

The Broncos have quietly won three in a row after starting the season 0-2. Suddenly, everyone is talking about them as a potential playoff team. While Bo Nix has not been the best, he has played better and smarter, finally playing a clean game last weekend with 206 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. But this defense was elite, with Patrick Surtain returning an interception for a 100-yard touchdown. This Denver defense is dangerous, and they will be ready for the Chargers.

I don’t expect either offense to do that well in this one. Amazingly, the Chargers and Broncos both have established elite defenses. But the Broncos are on fire right now, and their defense is firing on all cylinders. Expect them to salivate at the chance to get past a weak Chargers offensive line and force some turnovers. The Broncos win a nail-biter.

Prediction: Broncos 16, Chargers 13

Picks: Broncos +1.5, U 36.5

LIONS (-3) VS. COWBOYS (51.5)

The Lions are seventh in points per game.
The Cowboys are 23rd in points allowed per game.
The Cowboys are 15th in points per game.
The Lions are 10th in points allowed per game.
The Cowboys lead the head-to-head series 19-12.
The Cowboys have won six in a row against the Lions.
The Cowboys defeated the Lions 20-19 last season in a game that had a controversial ending.
The Lions are 2-2-1 after a bye week since 2019.
The Lions are 3-1 against the spread.
The Cowboys are 1-3 against the spread.

The Lions have prepared two weeks for this game for two weeks. Plus, they have an explosive offense led by Jared Goff with weapons like David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. The Lions also boast Aidan Hutchinson, who has generated 11 solo tackles and 6.5 sacks. Now, the Lions will head to the house that Jerry built to face a formidable but beatable Cowboys team.

The Cowboys snuck past the Pittsburgh Steelers to put themselves back in the win column. Ultimately, it has not been the greatest season for the Cowboys, but they have a chance to build momentum against a team they beat last season. However, the Cowboys must avoid turnovers and make stops against an explosive offense that can strike at any moment.

The Lions could have defeated the Cowboys last season if it had not been for a controversial call. Substantially, they are the better team with slightly more talent and health right now. It will be a great game, with the Lions winning an exciting shootout in Arlington.

Prediction: Lions 35, Cowboys 31

Picks: Lions -3, O 51.5

BENGALS (-4.5) VS. GIANTS (47.5)

The Bengals are tied for fourth in points per game.
The Giants are 11th in points allowed per game.
The Giants are 27th in points per game.
The Bengals are second-to-worst in points allowed per game.
The Bengals are 6-5 against the Giants in their head-to-head history.
The Giants defeated the Bengals 19-17 in their last showdown on November 29, 2020.
The Giants are 4-0 against the Bengals in four games at the Meadowlands.
The Bengals are 2-3 against the spread.
The Ravens are 3-2 against the spread.

The Bengals are struggling right now, and their defense is among the worst in the NFL. Joe Burrow even admitted that this is not a contender right now, but that isn’t his fault. Burrow has already passed for 1,370 passing yards with 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Bengals are bad right now because he has virtually no running game, and the defense has allowed teams to march down the field relentlessly. They are in a must-win game against the New York Giants, who are not the greatest offense in the world but can still threaten.

The Giants just stunned the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field and showed what they can do when firing on all cylinders. Daniel Jones went 23 for 34 with 257 yards and two touchdowns. But it was a blocked field goal attempt that sealed the deal. The Giants are still not a great team, but they have a chance to win their first home game in front of a national audience and will have extra motivation to do it.

The Bengals are reeling right now, and the Giants are at least competitive. But it is still hard to bet against Burrow. Yes, the Cincinnati defense is really leaky right now. But it’s tough to believe that the struggles will continue, especially against the Giants. This has all the makings of a wonderful game at the Meadowlands.

Prediction: Bengals 31, Giants 27

Picks: Giants +4.5, O 47.5

BILLS (-2.5) VS. JETS (42.5)

The Bills are third in points per game.
The Jets are tied for fifth in points allowed per game.
The Jets are 25th in points per game.
The Bills are tied for 12th in points allowed per game.
The Bills lead the head-to-head series 69-58-1.
The Jets are 3-2 over the past five games against the Bills.
The Jets have won four in a row against the Bills at the Meadowlands.
Josh Allen is 7-4 against the Jets.
The Bills are 2-3 against the spread.
The Jets are 2-3 against the spread.

The Bills have lost two in a row after dropping games to the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. Unfortunately, the defense has slipped, and they have not been able to stop anyone. Josh Allen will attempt to bounce back from these setbacks as he takes the Bills into the Meadowlands for a battle with the Jets.

The Jets are 2-3 and just fired Robert Saleh after another loss, this time an ugly defeat in London. What now? The Jets will fly on with a new interim coach, Jeff Ullbrich after Woody Johnson made the call to let Saleh go. They still have Aaron Rodgers as quarterback and Bryce Hall as running back. Additionally, Garrett Wilson is still their top receiver. But this offense needs all three to improve, and the offensive line needs to protect Rodgers better, especially against a solid Buffalo defense that can still do some damage.

The Bills have struggled historically at the Meadowlands. However, the Jets just fired their head coach. One of two things will happen here. Either the Bills will take advantage of the chaos and completely destroy the Jets at the Meadowlands, or the Jets will use the firing to fuel them to an emotional win. If you need a history lesson, here goes: 38 teams have fired their coach since the start of 2000. They are 16-22 in the following week after the firing. Another stat for you: Allen has not lost three in a row since his rookie season in 2018.

This was a challenging game to pick. It won’t make any sense, but the Jets never made any sense. For whatever reason, they always find a way to play the Bills tough at the Meadowlands, and I believe they will hand Allen his third loss in a row.

Prediction: Jets 20, Bills 17

Picks: Jets +2.5, U 47.5