NFL Picks and Predictions Week 3

Posted on September 20, 2024

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 3

We all were wrong last week. Yes, even you. Not to start this column on a sad note. But there were plenty of upsets last weekend. Who could have seen the Green Bay Packers winning with a backup quarterback who can barely throw? It happened. Let’s recap how I did in this official column.

Moneyline: 3-4 (9-5 This Season)
ATS: 2-5 (5-9 This Season ATS)
O/U: 3-4 (4-10 This Season)

The good news is that it’s still early. My Week 3 picks and predictions will be golden. I will highlight seven of the best games you will see this weekend, including one of the best rivalries in football.

Our team rankings also help you understand what each team is doing and why it is either dominating or struggling. Some teams will be looking to bounce back, like the San Francisco 49ers. Other teams will look to keep dominating. Then, it can always be worse. Teams like the Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens wonder what is happening. We will talk about those two teams in this column.

Check out our NFL Odds page to see the odds of each game. This will help you decide after you read my picks and see my thoughts.

CHARGERS (+1.5) VS. STEELERS (O/U 36)

The Chargers are 11th in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Steelers are second in the NFL in points allowed per game through two weeks.
The Steelers are 26th in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Chargers are the best in the NFL in points allowed per game over the last two weeks.
The Steelers lead the head-to-head series 24-11.
The teams have not met since January 21, 2021, when the Chargers won a shootout 41-37 over the Steelers at Sofi Stadium.
They have not played each other at Heinz Field since December 2, 2018, when the Chargers won a shootout 33-30.
Chargers are 3-2 over the last five games against the Steelers.
Mike Tomlin is 5-3 against the Chargers.

The Chargers are 2-0 for the first time since the 2012 season. Jim Harbaugh has established a proper identity for this team, and they have a legitimate chance to compete with the Kansas City Chiefs for first place in the AFC West. They dispatched the Carolina Panthers 26–3 by merely running the ball. JK Dobbins rushed 17 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. Meanwhile, Quentin Johnson caught five passes for 51 yards and two touchdowns. The defense held Bryce Young to just 84 yards passing and forced an interception while also sacking him twice. Also, they held Carolina to 1 for 12 on third down. The Steelers will be their toughest test so far, especially in a hostile environment.

The Steelers won a defensive barnburner 13-6 against the Denver Broncos. The offense was not necessary as this new Steel Curtain did everything it could to force Denver into making mistakes, including a back-of-the-endzone interception off Bo Nix. Justin Fields only managed 117 yards passing but managed the lone touchdown pass of the game. It certainly will get tougher as they face the Chargers at home. But it’s their home opener, so they will feel extra motivation to turn out in this one.

The Chargers may have a problem, as Justin Herbert has a right leg injury. They might be in trouble if he is limited or cannot play. The Steelers have Fields likely going unless Russell Wilson is ready. I think the uncertainty with Herbert gives the Steelers a slight edge in this one.

Prediction: Steelers 16, Chargers 13

Picks: Steelers -1.5, U36

EAGLES (+2.5) VS. SAINTS (O/U 49.5)

The Eagles are fifth in points per game through the first two weeks.
The Saints are fourth in points allowed per game through two weeks.
The Saints are first in points per game through two weeks.
The Eagles are 27th in points allowed per game through two weeks.
The Eagles lead the head-to-head series 19-16.
The Saints defeated the Eagles 20-10 at Lincoln Financial Field in the last meeting on New Year’s Day 2023.
The teams have not met in New Orleans since the 2019 NFC Divisional Playoffs when the Saints beat the Eagles 20-14 at the Superdome.
The last regular-season game at the Superdome took place on November 18, 2018, when the Saints marched all over the Eagles 48-7.
Jalen Hurts is 2-0 against the Saints.

Everyone is mocking the Eagles after they stole defeat from the jaws of victory. They led late in the game, and all they had to do was either get a first down or score, and they would have won. Somehow, they accomplished neither. Inexcusable. Jalen Hurts had a solid game, going 23 for 30 with 183 passing yards, with one touchdown and an interception, but rushing 13 times for 85 yards and a score. Saquon Barkley rushed 22 times for 95 yards but dropped a critical pass that could have won the game. DeVonta Smith led the way with seven receptions for 76 yards and a touchdown while serving as the top receiver in the absence of AJ Brown. It will not get any easier for the Eagles as they visit the hottest team in the NFL.

The Saints marched all over the Cowboys 44-19, stunning the sold-out crowd at AT&T Stadium. Alvin Kamara leveled up and pulled an Al Bundy by scoring four touchdowns in one game (three rushing and one receiving). Derek Carr connected well with Rashid Shaheed for four receptions for 96 yards. Additionally, the defense did not let Dak Prescott have any time, sacking him three times and intercepting two of his passes. Facing the Eagles off a short week should give them an advantage. Moreover, they will get a chance to put one of the best teams in the NFC in a small hole.

This is another tough matchup to gauge, but the Eagles don’t look right yet. They barely edged out the Packers and then collapsed like a house of cards against the Falcons. Their defense is simple to maneuver against, as Kirk Cousins proved. Carr and Kamara will tear them apart if they don’t make adjustments quickly. I believe something similar will happen, and the Saints will stay unbeaten.

Final Prediction: Saints 38, Eagles 31

Picks: Saints -2.5, O 49.5

TEXANS (-2) VS. VIKINGS (O/U 46)

The Texans are 11th in points per game through the first two weeks.
The Vikings are third in points allowed per game through the first two weeks.
The Vikings are eighth in points per game through the first two weeks.
The Texans are 12th in points allowed per game through the first two weeks.
The Vikings have won all five games in their history with the Texans.
The Vikings defeated the Texans 31-23 in their last showdown on October 4, 2020.

The Texans showed the world they are here to stay after beating the Chicago Bears 19-13 last Sunday night. It was a gritty game. The Bears were relentless in their pressure. But the Texans survived. CJ Stroud took three sacks but persevered. Significantly, he finished with 260 yards passing with one touchdown. He had a great target, as Nico Collins dominated with eight catches for 135 yards and a score. Meanwhile, the defense destroyed the Bears. They finished with seven sacks and two interceptions. Now, the Vikings should offer a different challenge, especially with this being the only team (aside from the Philadelphia Eagles) whom the Texans have never beaten.

The Vikings just pulled off a major upset (not really, if you know the history) as they beat the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 on Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. Sam Darnold was efficient, chucking the ball for 268 yards passing with two touchdowns and an interception. One of the day’s best plays came on a dropback play from the three-yard line when Darnold found a speedy Justin Jefferson racing past two defenders for a 97-yard touchdown. However, Jefferson also left the game early and might be questionable (or at least limited) for this week’s game against the Texans. It’s critical to keep an eye on Jefferson and his status for the game when predicting this one.

This is probably the toughest game on the slate. Ultimately, I believe the Texans are a better team—certainly the healthier team. Stroud has more weapons available. While Jefferson can turn a game on a dime, I believe the Texans will do a good job of containing him. The Texans eek one out here on the road and get their first-ever win over the Vikings.

Final Prediction: Texans 23, Vikings 20

Picks: Texans -2, U 46

49ERS (-7) VS. RAMS (O/U 44)

The 49ers are tied for ninth place in the NFL in points per game.
The Rams are the second-worst team in the league in points allowed per game.
The Rams are 27th in the NFL in points per game.
The 49ers are tied for 15th place in the NFL in points allowed per game.
The 49ers lead the all-time series 78-69-3
The 49ers have gone 9-1 in the last 10 regular-season games against the Rams.
The 49ers have won five straight regular-season games at Sofi Stadium.
Matthew Stafford is 1-8 against the 49ers.

The 49ers lost 23-17 to the Minnesota Vikings. It was a day of mistakes, and Brock Purdy made a few, including an interception and a fumble. Unfortunately, the mistakes cost them the game and Samuel. Things would be a lot more dire if they were not facing the Los Angeles Rams, who are even more broken than the Niners.

The Rams lost 41-10 to the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale. To add insult to injury, they also lost Cooper Kupp for a few weeks. So, to recap, they are without Kupp and Puca Nicua. Who is going to catch passes from Matthew Stafford? More importantly, can this defense stop anyone? They let Marvin Harrison Jr. run right past them twice.

The Niners will be without CMC and Deebo. Yet, the Rams have it much worse. The Niners seem to bounce back after a loss on most occasions. I can see them going into Los Angeles and taking down the Rams again, with Purdy bouncing back and Jordan Mason running all over them.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Rams 17

Picks: 49ers -7, Push

RAVENS (-1.5) VS. COWBOYS (O/U 48)

The Ravens are tied for 14th place in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Cowboys are third-worst in the NFL in points allowed per game after stumbling last weekend.
The Cowboys are seventh in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in points allowed per game through two weeks.
The Ravens lead the head-to-head series 5-1.
The teams last met on December 8, 2020, when the Ravens clawed the Cowboys 34-17 in front of a stacked house at M&T Bank Stadium.
The Cowboys won the last showdown at AT&T Field 27-17 on November 20, 2016

The Ravens collapsed last week, allowing the Las Vegas Raiders to rally from a 23-13 deficit to stun them 26-23. What happened? The Ravens simply did not put the game away. After Derrick Henry got in for the touchdown that gave them the 10-point lead, they allowed the Raiders to chip away with a field goal. Then, they let Gardner Minshew toss a 1-yard touchdown pass to Davante Adams to tie it. Lamar Jackson took a bad sack on the ensuing drive, forcing a 2nd and 19. Two plays later, the Ravens punted, which gave the Raiders the ball to march down the field for the go-ahead field goal. Things will not get easier as they head to Arlington to face the Cowboys.

The Cowboys were supposed to rout the Saints. Instead, they were the ones on the wrong end of one. Their 44-19 loss had many lowlights. Dak Prescott passed for one touchdown and two interceptions while also taking three sacks. Mike Zimmer’s defense allowed Alvin Kamara to score four touchdowns. This probably gave him PTSD, as he was the defensive coordinator for the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas Day 2020 when Kamara steamrolled his defense for six touchdowns. Luckily, they are not facing Kamara this week. But Johnson needs to prepare his defense for Jackson and Henry, who can both shred defenses any day.

No one expected the Ravens to start 0-2. Yet, here we are. The Ravens are desperate and must find a way to avoid collapsing late in the game. I believe they are better than the Cowboys, and coach John Harbaugh will have his team ready to avoid the dreaded 0-3 start. The Ravens get the W, sending the Cowboys to their second consecutive home loss.

Prediction: Ravens 27, Cowboys 24

Picks: Ravens -1.5, O 48

LIONS (-3) VS. CARDINALS (0/U 51.5)

The Lions are just 16th in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Cardinals are 17th in the NFL in points allowed per game through two weeks.
The Cardinals are second in the NFL in points per game through two weeks.
The Lions are tied for 12th place in the NFL in points allowed per game.
Lions lead the head-to-head series 35-28.
The teams last met on December 19, 2021, when the Lions devoured the Cardinals 30-12 at Ford Field.
The Lions are 4-0-1 in the last five games against the Cardinals.
Kyler Murray is 0-2 against the Lions.
Jared Goff is 8-1 against the Cardinals.

The Lions have not found their offense yet. They suffered a 20-16 loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Ford Field. Jared Goff dropped back 55 times for whatever reason and threw 307 yards passing. Meanwhile, Jahmyr Gibbs rushed 13 times for 84 yards, while David Montgomery had 11 rushes for 35 yards and a score. Amazingly, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 19 targets, catching 11 for 119 yards. Detroit went away from their best asset, which was their formidable offensive line and running game. They must go back to what works to defeat the Cardinals, utilizing Montgomery and Gibbs effectively. Lastly, they must cut down the turnovers.

The Cardinals clawed the Rams 41-10 last weekend, displaying a level of dominance they have not shown in a long time. Marvin Harrison Jr. had his coming out party with four catches for 130 yards and two touchdowns. Kyler Murray went 17 for 21 with 266 yards and three scores. Meanwhile, James Conner rushed 21 times for 122 yards and one touchdown. The defense also forced a turnover and notched five sacks. Yet, the Lions will offer a tough challenge as the Cards hope to overcome one of the best teams in the NFC.

The Lions are too good to keep stumbling. Goff will likely cede his touches to the running backs this time around. Aidan Hutchinson will make life tough for Murray. This will help the Lions overcome the Cards and survive them on the road. The Lions roar to victory in this one.

Prediction: Lions 34, Cardinals 27

O/U: Lions -3, O 51.5

CHIEFS (-3.5) VS. FALCONS (O/U 46.5)

The Chiefs are sixth in the NFL in scoring offense.
The Falcons are 10th in the NFL in scoring defense.
The Falcons are 25th in the NFL in scoring offense.
The Chiefs are 19th in the NFL in scoring defense.
The Chiefs lead the series 7-3.
The Chiefs won the last battle, 17-14, on December 27, 2020, at Arrowhead Stadium.
Andy Reid is 10-3 in his career against the Falcons.

The Chiefs escaped defeat again, as Harrison Butker kicked in the game-winning field goal to give the Chiefs the narrow victory against the Cincinnati Bengals. Patrick Mahomes did a great job of overcoming adversity and now hopes to go into Atlanta and beat the Falcons. Kansas City will be without Isiah Pacheco, so they might have some challenges in this one.

The Falcons stole a victory from the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football. The win saved their season, as coming into a battle with the Chiefs is much better at 1-1 than 0-2. Kirk Cousins has not found his groove yet, but he did lead the game-winning drive and was poised in front of a hostile environment in Philadelphia.

The temptation to pick the Falcons is strong, and they have the talent to pull an upset. However, they would need to play a near-perfect game to beat the Chiefs. Their defense would also need to come alive and stop Mahomes. It’s not impossible, but it’s difficult to see that happening.

Prediction: Chiefs 27, Falcons 24

O/U: Falcons +3.5, O 46.5