NFL Picks and Predictions Week 11

By Robert Hayek

Posted on November 15, 2024

NFL Picks and Predictions Week 11

On top of having a good NFL Sunday, I was very close to predicting exact scores last week. Somehow, the Buffalo Bills defeated the Indianapolis Colts 30-20, which was just short of my 30-22 prediction. It was a wild week of football, and it’s crazy to think we are just eight weeks away from the playoffs. Yes, that is a weird way of saying two months, but it’s still true.

Check out my record below:

Moneyline: 5-2 (48-21 Overall)
ATS: 3-4 (31-38 Overall)
O/U: 4-3 (31-38 Overall)

It was not the worst week for me. I am a little miffed that I missed two moneyline picks (blame the Washington Commanders and Los Angeles Rams for that one). Plus, Jake Moody decided to miss three field goals, which prevented me from hitting the spread and the over in that 49ers game against the Bucs. But I digress. It’s time to talk about Week 11, and I have never been more excited to share some of my favorite games of the week. Three of them are classic divisional rivalries, and one has been an AFC rivalry that has been one-sided in the postseason.

Along with these picks, there are many ways to look at the skillsets. Team rankings are awesome, and they do a great job of showing how good teams are on offense and defense. Likewise, the power rankings showcase the scale of strength across the NFL.

Check out our NFL picks here.

PACKERS (-5.5) VS. BEARS (40.5)

The Packers are 11th in points per game.
The Bears are sixth in points allowed per game.
The Bears are 25th in points per game.
The Packers are 10th in points allowed per game.
The Packers are 4-5 against the spread.
The Bears are 4-4-1 against the spread.
The Packers are 2-1 against the spread on the road.
The Bears are 3-1 against the spread at home.
The Packers lead the regular-season series 106-94-6.
The Packers have won 10 games in a row against the Bears.

The Packers are 6-3 and have had two weeks to prepare for this divisional battle. Ultimately, they have bounced back after some early-season struggles. Jordan Love is playing well for the most part with some inconsistency, passing for 1,820 yards while also tossing 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Meanwhile, the Bears have stumbled after a good start and have lost three in a row after their London win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Unfortunately, the offense has been stagnant and caused the Bears to fire their offensive coordinator, hoping for a change in results against a Green Bay defense that can shut many teams down.

It’s tough to trust the Bears, even after they fired Shane Waldron. Plus, Love has done well against the Bears in limited action. The weather could become a factor in this one, as there is a chance of some rain. Because of that, I expect both offenses to struggle. But I see the Packers overcoming the Bears in an ugly one.

Prediction: Packers 17, Bears 10

Picks: Packers -6.5, U 41.5

COLTS (+3.5) VS. JETS (43.5)

The Colts are 18th in points per game.
The Jets are 14th in points allowed per game.
The Jets are 23rd in points per game.
The Colts are 21st in points allowed per game.
The Colts are 7-3 against the spread.
The Jets are 3-7 against the spread.
The Colts are 3-2 against the spread on the road.
The Jets are 2-2 against the spread at home.
The Colts lead the series 44-32.
The Colts defeated the Jets 45-30 in their last showdown on November 4, 2021.

The Colts are in a sticky situation as they come into this showdown with a 4-6 record. Unfortunately, this season has been a struggle for Indianapolis. But they are still one game behind the Denver Broncos, who are currently occupying the final wildcard spot in the AFC. This is a game they must win, especially with the Detroit Lions looming next week. Meanwhile, the Jets are right behind them, trailing the Colts by one game. They are still alive, and a win would help their slim playoff hopes.

The Colts have Jonathan Taylor, who could do some damage. However, the Jets have Breece Hall, and the Colts have a much worse run defense. It will make a difference, especially with some slight rain showers at the Meadowlands this weekend.

Prediction: Jets 23, Colts 20

Picks: Colts +3.5, U 44.5

RAVENS (-3) VS. STEELERS (48.5)

The Ravens are first in points per game.
The Steelers are second in points allowed per game.
The Steelers are 16th in points per game.
The Ravens are 27th in points allowed per game.
The Ravens are 5-4-1 against the spread.
The Steelers are 7-2 against the spread.
The Ravens are 3-2 against the spread on the road.
The Steelers are 3-1 against the spread at home.
The Steelers lead the regular-season series 32-24.
The Steelers have won three games in a row against the Ravens.

The Ravens are 7-3 and quietly looking like one of the best teams in football, especially after a solid rally to stun the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season, passing for 2,669 yards, 24 touchdowns, and only two interceptions while also rushing 91 times for 538 yards and two scores. Derrick Henry has been great, with 184 rushes for 1,120 yards and 12 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Steelers are 7-2 and quietly putting teams away. Russell Wilson is back and has passed for 737 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions over three games. Ultimately, this offense is starting to gel, and the defense continues to play well, too.

The Ravens and Steelers have had three games in a row in Pittsburgh that have gone down to the wire. It is probably the toughest game of the week to pick. Jackson has historically struggled against the Steelers, generating a 66.8 passer rating. I see history repeating itself, with the Steelers making life tough for Jackson.

Prediction: Steelers 23, Ravens 20

Picks: Steelers +3, U 48.5

SEAHAWKS (+6.5) VS. 49ERS (49.5)

The Seahawks are 17th in points per game.
The 49ers are 11th in points allowed per game.
The 49ers are ninth in points per game.
The Seahawks are 19th in points allowed per game.
The Seahawks are 2-6-1 against the spread.
The 49ers are 4-5 against the spread.
The Seahawks are 1-1-1 against the spread on the road.
The 49ers are 3-2 against the spread at home.
The Seahawks lead the regular-season series 30-22.
The 49ers have won six games in a row against the Seahawks.

The Seahawks look vastly different from the team that started the season 3-0. Unfortunately, they have gone 1-5 in the six games since. They have had two weeks to prepare for a 49ers team that has struggled often this season. Geno Smith would like redemption after he gave the game away to the Niners in their last encounter a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Niners are coming off a last-second win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Brock Purdy has had an up-and-down season, passing for 2,454 yards, 12 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Ultimately, he led the game-winning drive last weekend, and another week of a healthy Christian McCaffrey will help.

The Seahawks are reeling. Despite having two weeks to prepare for this game, it will be a tall task for this team to take down the 49ers. Purdy played well last weekend and will be ready to go in this one as the Niners roll. Plus, Jake Moody will hit his kicks this time around.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Seahawks 24

Picks: 49ers -6.5, O 49.5

FALCONS (+2.5) VS. BRONCOS (44.5)

The Falcons are eighth in points per game.
The Broncos are eighth in points allowed per game.
The Broncos are 20th in points per game.
The Falcons are 23rd in points allowed per game.
The Falcons are 5-5 against the spread.
The Broncos are 7-3 against the spread.
The Falcons are 3-1 against the spread on the road.
The Broncos are 2-2 against the spread at home.
The Broncos lead the all-time series 9-7, including a win over the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
The Falcons defeated the Broncos 34-27 in their last showdown on November 8, 2020, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Falcons are in control of the NFC South even after losing to the New Orleans Saints last weekend. Kirk Cousins has passed for 2,634 yards, 17 touchdowns, and eight interceptions this season. Likewise, Bijan Robinson has rushed 155 times for 748 yards and six touchdowns while catching 41 passes for 331 yards and one score. Darnell Mooney has been the leading receiver, with 46 passes for 684 yards and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Broncos have lost two in a row and are currently 5-5 after suffering a heartbreaking defeat last weekend. Bo Nix has passed for 1,968 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions while rushing 61 times for 290 yards and four scores. But the defense has been the true heart of this team, not allowing anyone to score easily.

This rematch of a Super Bowl from the 90s does not have the same allure it did back when John Elway was leading the Broncos to their second consecutive Super Bowl title. The Falcons have the edge in the odds. Yet, I feel like the Broncos have much more to play for, and they will use that survival instinct in this one. The defense leads the Broncos to victory.

Prediction: Broncos 19, Falcons 17

Picks: Broncos +2.5, U 44.5

CHIEFS (+2.5) VS. BILLS (46.5)

The Chiefs are 15th in points per game.
The Bills are ninth in points allowed per game.
The Bills are second in points per game.
The Chiefs are fourth in points allowed per game.
The Chiefs are 5-4 against the spread.
The Bills are 6-4 against the spread.
The Chiefs are 3-1 against the spread on the road.
The Bills are 2-2 against the spread at home.
The Bills lead the series (including playoffs) 29-25.
The Chiefs eliminated the Bills from the postseason with a 27-24 victory in the Divisional Round at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York.

The Chiefs are still unbeaten after blocking a last-second field goal attempt by the Broncos last weekend. Somehow, the Chiefs continue to sneak past teams, winning their last three games by an average of five points. Of their nine wins, seven have been by one score. Patrick Mahomes is not having the best season, passing for 2,208 yards, 12 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. But he is doing enough to win, along with help from a formidable defense. Meanwhile, the Bills have won five games in a row and are currently 7-2. Josh Allen has passed for 2,281 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions while also rushing 55 times for 261 yards and four scores. They may get Amari Cooper back this weekend, as he is dealing with a wrist injury.

The Chiefs have haunted the Bills over the past few seasons, eliminating them from the postseason in three of the last four years. But the Bills have beaten the Chiefs in three consecutive regular-season showdowns. For whatever reason, the Bills get the job done in the regular season. I expect Allen to come out and challenge this elite defense and find enough to overcome the Chiefs and hand them their first loss.

Prediction: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

Picks: Bills -2.5, O 46.5

BENGALS (+1.5) VS. CHARGERS (46.5)

The Bengals are sixth in points per game.
The Chargers are first in points allowed per game.
The Chargers are 21st in points per game.
The Bengals are 29th in points allowed per game.
The Bengals are 6-4 against the spread.
The Chargers are 6-3 against the spread.
The Bengals are 5-0 against the spread on the road.
The Chargers are 3-1 against the spread at home.
The Chargers lead the series 23-15.
The Chargers defeated the Bengals 41-22 in their last encounter on December 5, 2021.

The Bengals are much better than their record. Significantly, they are 4-6 but have also lost so many close games (look at their numbers against the spread). Joe Burrow has passed for 2,672 yards, 24 touchdowns, and four interceptions. Also, Ja’Marr Chase has been great, catching 66 passes for 981 yards and 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 6-3 and beating teams with tough defense and a solid running game. Justin Herbert has passed for 1,889 yards, 11 touchdowns, and one interception. Also, JK Dobbins has rushed 141 times for 670 yards and six scores.

It’s offense vs. defense in this one. While the Bengals’ defense has struggled, they will face a Chargers’ offense that is not the best and has not really found its footing yet. Burrow needs to will his team to victory, and I believe he will. The Bengals get the win to keep themselves in the playoff race.

Prediction: Bengals 24, Chargers 17

Picks: Bengals -1.5, U 46.5