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NFL Picks and Predictions Week 10

By Robert Hayek

Posted on November 8, 2024

NFL PICKS AND PREDICTIONS WEEK 10

What a wild week! I pulled off the unthinkable and got all my picks right! That’s something I don’t do often, but it also netted me some upside in one of my leagues. The NFL is getting spicy as we head into the second half of the season, and the Kansas City Chiefs are still unbeaten. But are they really unbeatable? Remember, last season, they looked amazing, and then they ran into the Denver Broncos and laid an egg. Who do they play this week? Those same Broncos who just got steamrolled in Baltimore. Yes, I know, this week, that game is at Arrowhead, where the Chiefs are nearly unbeatable. It’s no surprise that the Broncos-Chiefs game is one of my top seven games this week. Before we get into that, here are my lines from the weekend.

Check out my record below:

Moneyline: 7-0 (43-19 Overall)
ATS: 3-4 (28-34 Overall)
O/U: 4-3 (27-35 Overall)

I have been on and off with my spreads (like a bad relationship). Last week, I went 4-3; this week, I went 3-4. The same can be said for the over/under. My ultimate goal is to go 7-0 in all three. Will it happen? Maybe. Stranger things have happened.

I love my team rankings as they help me decipher how teams are doing. Also, you cannot forget about our power rankings, which help showcase how strong some teams really are. The following seven games are all my choice. If you want more games, our incredible staff has them ready. The link below will take you there. But first, read my picks to get some facts about these matches.

Check out all our NFL Picks Here

BILLS (-3.5) VS. COLTS (47.5)

The Bills are fifth in points per game.
The Colts are 12th in points allowed per game.
The Colts are 22nd in points per game.
The Bills are eighth in points allowed per game.
The Bills are 5-4 against the spread.
The Colts are 7-2 against the spread.
The Bills are 3-2 against the spread on the road.
The Colts are 4-0 against the spread at home.
The Bills lead the all-time series 38-33-1.
The Colts defeated the Bills 41-15 in the last meeting on November 12, 2021.

The Bills are quietly on a hot streak, having won four in a row after beating the Dolphins (again) last weekend. Now, they have a commanding four-game lead in the AFC East with eight games left to play, and almost certainly will win another divisional title. Josh Allen has found his groove and has led the Bills to an average of 29.5 points over the winning streak. Meanwhile, the Colts have stumbled recently, losing two in a row, and are now 4-5, trailing the Texans by two games. It will be a tough battle as they welcome the Bills into Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Bills are hot right now, and the Colts are not. Additionally, the Colts are in shambles offensively, and it will be a tough matchup for them. I expect the Bills to win this game while the Colts struggle to keep up.

Prediction: Bills 30, Colts 22

Picks: Bills -3.5, O 47.5

BRONCOS (+7.5) VS. CHIEFS (41.5)

The Broncos are 23rd in points per game.
The Chiefs are third in points allowed per game.
The Chiefs are 11th in points per game.
The Broncos are fourth in points allowed per game.
The Broncos are 6-3 against the spread.
The Chiefs are 5-3 against the spread.
The Broncos are 4-1 against the spread on the road.
The Chiefs are 2-2 against the spread at home.
The Chiefs have won eight games in a row against the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium.
The Broncos and Chiefs split the season series in 2023.

The Broncos crashed back down to Earth with an awful loss to the Ravens. Regardless, they are still 5-4 and in a good position to make the playoffs. Bo Nix has had some ups and downs this season. But he still has passed for 1,753 yards, eight touchdowns, and six interceptions while also running 58 times for 295 yards and four touchdowns. This defense has been exceptional and will make things tough for Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Chiefs remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL but have struggled to blow teams away, winning by an average of seven points. Patrick Mahomes has not had the best season, passing for 1,942 yards, 11 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Yet, he has still willed them to an unbeaten record while also having an excellent defense helping him out.

This is a trap game! But will the Broncos win? While I do believe they are capable of winning, that would require them to have a near-perfect game. I do expect the Broncos to make life difficult for Mahomes. But I also expect the Kansas City defense to swarm Nix, giving the Chiefs the advantage.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Broncos 13

Picks: Broncos +7.5, U 41.5

49ERS (-5.5) VS. BUCCANEERS (50.5)

The 49ers are sixth in points per game.
The Buccaneers are 27th in points allowed per game.
The Buccaneers are sixth in points per game.
The 49ers are 16th in points allowed per game.
The 49ers are 4-4 against the spread.
The Buccaneers are 5-4 against the spread.
The 49ers are 1-2 against the spread on the road.
The Buccaneers are 2-3 against the spread at home.
The 49ers lead the all-time series 20-7.
The 49ers have won three in a row in this series, including wins over the last two seasons.

The 49ers went into the bye week with a 30-24 win over the Cowboys. The good news is that they will likely get Christian McCaffrey back. Conversely, the Bucs are struggling with numerous injuries, with Chris Godwin out for the season and Mike Evans not likely to play this weekend. That gives the Niners the edge.

Prediction: 49ers 31, Buccaneers 23

Picks: 49ers -5.5, O 50.5

STEELERS (+2.5) VS. COMMANDERS (45.5)

The Steelers are 13th in points per game.
The Commanders are 11th in points allowed per game.
The Commanders are fourth in points per game.
The Steelers are second in points allowed per game.
The Steelers are 6-2 against the spread.
The Commanders are 7-1 against the spread.
The Steelers are 3-1 against the spread on the road.
The Commanders are 4-0 against the spread at home.
The Commanders won the last showdown 23-17 on December 7, 2020.
The Commanders have never defeated the Steelers in Landover, Maryland, with the last victory coming against them in the old RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C., in 1988.

The Steelers are somehow 6-2 despite not having a consistent starting quarterback. They just had a bye week after edging out the New York Giants two weeks ago. The Steelers are winning games with a solid running game and great defense, two pillars they are historically known for. Meanwhile, the Commanders are firing on all cylinders and just completed a season sweep of the Giants, leading to their third consecutive win and maintaining the lead in the NFC East.

This will probably be one of the best matchups of the week. Jayden Daniels is electric and will have his toughest challenge yet facing this defense. But I think this team is also for real, and the Commanders have slightly more juice than the Steelers. It will be close, though.

Prediction: Commanders 19, Steelers 16

Picks: Commanders -2.5, U 45.5

EAGLES (-7) VS. COWBOYS (42.5)

The Eagles are 10th in points per game.
The Cowboys are 31st in points allowed per game.
The Cowboys are 20th in points per game.
The Eagles are ninth in points allowed per game.
The Eagles are 4-4 against the spread.
The Cowboys are 2-6 against the spread.
The Eagles are 3-1 against the spread on the road.
The Cowboys are 0-3 against the spread at home.
The Eagles and Cowboys split the season series in 2023.
The Cowboys have won six in a row against the Eagles at AT&T Stadium and are 7-1 over the past eight games in Arlington.

The Eagles have won four games in a row and suddenly look like the NFC contender many people predicted they would be. Jalen Hurts has run for six touchdowns over three games and is on fire. The defense has tightened up and started making a mark on everything. Saquon Barkley has been a great addition to the Eagles and continues to be an excellent 1-2 punch with Hurts. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have cratered and are in shambles. Dak Prescott is injured, and Cooper Rush will start, but Dallas still does not have a running game or a defense that is doing much.

This might get ugly. If the Cowboys had health or a running game, they would likely win this game. Unfortunately, Prescott is out again, and the defense has looked unimpressive. The Eagles roll over their rivals on the road, and the Cowboys fall to 0-4 at home.

Prediction: Eagles 38, Cowboys 17

Picks: Eagles -7, O 42.5

LIONS (-3.5) VS. TEXANS (48.5)

The Lions are first in points per game.
The Texans are 14th in points allowed per game.
The Texans are 17th in points per game.
The Lions are fifth in points allowed per game.
The Lions are 7-1 against the spread.
The Texans are 3-5-1 against the spread.
The Lions are 4-0 against the spread on the road.
The Texans are 1-2-1 against the spread at home.
The Texans are 4-1 against the Lions and 2-0 at home.
The Texans defeated the Lions 41-25 in the last showdown on Thanksgiving 2020.

The Lions are absolutely crushing the competition and have won six games in a row after losing to the Buccaneers in Week 2. Amazingly, the Lions have averaged 39.2 points per game over their past five games. Jared Goff is having an excellent season, and the Lions’ 1-2 punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are running all over opposing defenses. Meanwhile, the Texans are bruised and battered. Nico Collins is still practicing, and Stefon Diggs is out for the season. Additionally, the offensive line is in shambles. While the Texans are still 6-3 and in first place in the AFC South, it has not been an easy road for them.

This would have been an amazing matchup if Diggs and Collins were available. Yes, it still possibly will be a good matchup. But the Lions will roar loudly and find a way to win this showdown.

Prediction: Lions 31, Texans 24

Picks: Lions -3.5, O 48.5

DOLPHINS (+1.5) VS. RAMS (50.5)

The Dolphins are 31st in points per game.
The Rams are 22nd in points allowed per game.
The Rams are 21st in points per game.
The Dolphins are 17th in points allowed per game.
The Dolphins are 2-6 against the spread.
The Rams are 3-5 against the spread.
The Dolphins are 2-2 against the spread on the road.
The Rams are 2-2 against the spread at home.
The Dolphins lead the all-time series 12-2 and have won five in a row against the Rams.
The Rams have not beaten the Dolphins since 2021.

The Dolphins are having an awful season. Between the concussion of Tua Tagovailoa at the start of the season and the late-game collapses, it has been a year to forget. They need this game even to have a semblance of a chance. Tagovailoa will need to play well, and the running game will need to get going to give the Fins a chance. Likewise, the Rams have been all over the place. But they are healthy now and will have a chance to build on their recent success, which has seen them win three games in a row after starting 1-4.

Honestly, this game can go either way. But the Dolphins have looked so pathetic lately that it is hard to have faith in them. Sadly, they have lost the last three games by an average of three points. The Rams have looked better and are finishing games. Therefore, I expect them to sneak away with this one again.

Prediction: Rams 23, Dolphins 20

Picks: Rams -1.5, U 50.5