NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, January the 11th
We have a healthy 8-game slate to choose from tonight, so let’s take a look with the help from FantasyData’s NBA Optimizer which has been extra helpful with recent slates and you can use to aid you in your fantasy sports as well as sports betting.
Ja Morant Over 27.5 points scored (-118)
The Memphis Grizzlies (27-13) host the San Antonio Spurs (13-28) in what looks to be a comfortable win for the home side as the Grizzlies (-13.5) open up as firm favorites, 2 days removed from their last matchup which the Grizzlies ran out 121-113 winners. The difference maker tonight will undoubtedly be Ja Morant’s return to the lineup after he’s missed the last 2 games. Morant is definitely a different animal when playing in Memphis as he’s topped 32 points in each of their last 3 home games. The Spurs are also dead last in points against per game in the league (120.6) and in Morant’s absence allowed backup point guard Tyus Jones to score 24 points in a season where he’s averaging just 10.8 per game. Projections him at 28.56, so we have 1 point cushion with his over. Look for Morant to continue his hot streak at home against a struggling Grizzlies defense.
Alperen Sengun Over 8.5 total rebounds (-111)
Heading to California for this one as the Houston Rockets (10-30) travel to the Sacramento Kings (21-18) looking to break a 7-game losing streak, and with only 1 win in their last 13 games. The books don’t seem to think the streak will end any time soon as the Kings (-9.5) are big favorites, even with their mixed start to the season. One bright spark for the Rockets is the emergence of Sengun in his second year, that is when he’s given the full game to play, something he’s yet to have a consistent run doing. In games where he has managed 29 minutes or more, he’s had 8+ rebounds in 11 of those 12 games, and regardless of minutes, he’s topped that number in 5 of his last 9. The Kings rank 13th in defensive rebounds allowed per game (32.8) so they’re not the weakest, but they are allowing 42 total rebounds on average per game, and the Rockets also boast the worst shooting % in the NBA (44.3%) so expect him to clean up around the Kings basket as he’s had 3+ offensive rebounds in 5 of his last 6. Our projection tool also has Sengun finishing with 9.01 rebounds.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 12.5 rebounds (-130)
The Atlanta Hawks (19-21) welcome the Milwaukee Bucks (26-14) in what should be a competitive and high-scoring affair. The Bucks (-3) begin as slight favorites though they’ve only won 3 of their last 9 on the road. Giannis is having another fantastic season for the Bucks and has averaged just under 12 rebounds per game this season, the 3rd highest per-game total in the league so far. The Hawks on the other hand rank dead last in defensive rebounds allowed per game (35.9) and 23rd in offensive rebounds allowed (11.1), these combined with the Bucks leading the league in defensive rebounds (37) and ranking 6th in offensive rebounds (12.3) bodes well for Giannis in this matchup. Our projection tool has him sitting at 12.69 rebounds for tonight, and he has also had 15+ defensive rebounds in 3 of his last 6 so I can see him going beyond this total against a poor Hawks defense.
Jamal Murray Over 18.5 points (-125)
Lastly, we have the Denver Nuggets (27-13) hosting the Phoenix Suns (21-21) which is expected to be another convincing win for Denver (-13) who have won 11 straight home games against an average Suns team with only 3 road wins in their last 12. The Nuggets currently have the best home shooting average in the NBA (51.8%) and Jamal Murray is coming off a 34-point game on Monday night. Murray has topped 18+ points in 6 of his last 8 games, with 25+ in 4 of those, and looks to take advantage of a Suns team that has struggled against the guard position in recent weeks, allowing 21+ point games from guards in each of their last 6. Once again FantasyData’s NBA projections have him slightly above his line with a 19.27 projection so expect Murray to have a fruitful evening.
I’m David, 28, originally from England but now married and living in Texas. Originally studied English Literature at Liverpool Hope University, alongside Sport & Education. Having been an avid sports fan my entire life, I had a season ticket at Everton FC in the EPL for 17 years. Since moving here I’ve become a Kansas City Chiefs fan after Kelce won me my Fantasy League on my first-ever try. Love watching the games whether it be college on Saturdays or the NFL throughout the week. You’ll always find me with a bet or two on as well. 1 leg losses are my Kryptonite.
