The Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts will face off at Lucas Oil Stadium in an AFC showdown Monday night. Both teams come in off Week 11 losses. The Steelers fought valiantly but ultimately fell to the Cincinnati Bengals at home by a 37-30 score to drop to 3-7, while the Colts were edged by the visiting Philadelphia Eagles, 17-16, in a game in which they blew a 13-3 third-quarter lead.
The Colts opened as three-point home favorites when this line was first released in the middle of last week, and there hasn’t been much movement since that point with both teams suffering close Week 11 losses. The number bumped down to 2.5 on Monday after both teams lost on Sunday, and it’s continued to toggle between 2.5 and 3 since that point.
Many believed at the beginning of the season that this game would be more meaningful, unfortunately, that isn’t the case, as both teams have gone through some tough times. This game is basically an elimination game, with how good the AFC is, a loss tonight would basically put a pin in either team’s playoff chances. As bettors we don’t have to worry about that though, we focus on making money. So, without further ado let’s dive into our favorite prop bets for this game.
Parris Campbell Over 3.5 receptions (-125)
In Matt Ryan’s last four starts, Parris Campbell has a 24.1% target share and has averaged 9.5 targets per game. He had 57 or more yards in each of those games, and the Steelers allow a league-leading 202 receiving yards per game this season. With TJ Watt back in the fold for the Steelers, Ryan will need to get the ball out quickly, look for Campbell to be the beneficiary of that. I also like Campbell to go over his yardage prop as well, which is 45.5 receiving yards.
Pat Freiermuth Over 43.5 receiving yards (-115)
Since rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett got the starting job in Week 5, tight end Pat Freiermuth has totaled at least 44 yards receiving in three of his five games and has at least four grabs in all but one of those matches. He is coming off a season-high 12 targets in Week 11 and is getting a healthy 24% target share since Week 7.
Pittsburgh is still a top-half team in terms of passing percentage. Game script has had a lot to do with that as a losing team, but it won’t be easy for Pittsburgh to run the ball with success Monday night as the Colts sit fourth in the league in EPA/rush and Top 10 in success rate against the rush. Pickett will have to move the sticks through the air, and that could mean another heavy-targeted game for the tight end.
Freiermuth ran a route on 36 of the Steelers’ 44 dropbacks last week and has emerged as one of the best pass-catching tight ends. Only Travis Kelce is averaging more yards per game than Freiermuth since Week 7.
Matt Ryan to throw an interception (-135)
I’m going with Matt Ryan to throw an interception here at -135. You might be able to find a better price on this, always make sure you shop around before placing your bet. After a phenomenal performance in Las Vegas two weeks ago, Ryan was right back where he started last Sunday when he took four sacks against the Eagles while averaging a miserable 6.7 yards per pass attempt. Granted, Philadelphia didn’t record any interceptions in that one, but all that did was contribute to us getting a better price in this situation. Take note that Pittsburgh’s defense currently ranks third in the NFL in interceptions with 12.
Najee Harris under 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
Harris has seen 20 carries in back-to-back weeks. If he gets that volume on MNF this wager could be in trouble. The case against Harris is simple. First off, Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point underdog, so they could be playing from behind.
Indianapolis boasts an underrated front seven and has excelled against the run this season. They rank 6th in rush defense DVOA, and just held the Eagles running back to 3.2 yards per carry over 17 attempts.
Harris has produced 90 and 99 rushing yards over the past two weeks, but both of those matchups were against underwhelming rush defenses in New Orleans (20) and Cincinnati (16). The results have not been pretty in games against good rush defenses this season. He posted rushing yards totals of 42, 20, and 49 against the Bucs, Bills, and Pats, and we should expect a similar outcome versus Indy.
Kayvon has always been passionate about sports and in particular the betting side of the sports industry. Now that sports gambling has become so popular, Kayvon spends much of his time studying and researching the industry. He believes it’s imperative to be informed when diving into the gambling side of sports. He also enjoys creating podcasts and videos on all types of sports content, and there is nothing Kayvon loves more than a sports debate!
