MLB Playoff Picks
There are four games on today’s MLB Wild Card round schedule, led off by the Tigers vs Astros at 2:32 ET. The Royals face the Orioles at 4:08 ET, and the Mets take on the Brewers in Milwaukee shortly after that (5:32). Atlanta is also on the road to take on the Padre at 8:35 ET.
Moneyline Plays
Kansas City Royals vs. Baltimore Orioles
Royals (+135) – Orioles (-159) | O/U 7.0
Corbin Burnes will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Yankees, as he gets the start for the Orioles today. Against the Yankees, he took the loss, going five innings and giving up one earned run. Looking back further, Burnes had picked up the win in two straight outings before the loss to the Yankees. He has been excellent at home this year, going 8-5 with a 3.32 ERA compared to 7-4 with a 2.98 ERA on the road. Burnes’ overall record is 15-9, and his ERA for the season is 2.92.
Cole Ragans is 11-9 with a 3.14 ERA this season and has 21 quality starts. He is coming off a start in which he went six innings and didn’t give up a run. Ragans has allowed just 15 homers this season. So far, the Royals are 86-76, and they trail the Guardians by 6.5 games in the AL Central. The Orioles are 91-71 and are 3.0 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Baltimore is 2nd in the AL East, while the Royals are 2nd in the AL Central.
On the moneyline, the Orioles are the favorites, with their odds sitting at -159 compared to the Royals at +135. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs, and this game can be seen on ESPN2. Bobby Witt Jr. is leading the league with 109 RBIs and is hitting .332. He also has 32 homers, which is 12th in the league. Witt Jr. has gone 11/32 in his last nine games and is currently on a three-game hitting streak. Salvador Perez has 27 homers and 104 RBIs for the Royals.
So far this season, the Royals are 13th in scoring, at 4.5 runs per game. They are facing a Baltimore team that is 4th in scoring and 3rd in slugging. The Orioles are also 6th in batting average. Anthony Santander has 44 homers for the Orioles, while Gunnar Henderson has 37. Santander is also leading the team with 102 RBIs. Kansas City is 33-19 vs. divisional opponents, while the Orioles are 32-20.
MLB Best Bet: Kansas City Royals ML +135
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Mets (+119) – Brewers (-140) | O/U 7.5
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso is 10th in the league with 34 homers, and Lindor is right behind him with 33. Lindor comes into the game on a bit of a hot streak, going 6/17 in his last four games, with two homers and five RBIs. Over his last seven games, Mark Vientos has also gone deep twice while batting .250.
Overall, the Mets are 6th in home runs this season and are 7th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .246, which is 8th in the league, and have the 8th ranked on-base percentage and slugging percentage in the league.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, with Contreras batting .281 with 23 homers and Adames leading the team with 32 home runs. Adames’ 112 RBIs are also the 4th most in the league. Rhys Hoskins is 2nd on the team with 26 homers but has struggled with a batting average of just .214.
Over his last seven games, Rhys Hoskins has gone 5/20 with one home run and eight RBIs. Jake Bauers and Gary Sanchez have also each hit one home run in their last seven games, with Bauers going 4/14 and Sanchez 4/19. Currently, Brice Turang and Jackson Chourio are on hitting streaks of three and four games, respectively.
New York is sending Luis Severino to the mound today vs. the Brewers, and he comes in with a record of 11-7 and an ERA of 3.91. This year, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .232 off the right-hander. In his 31 appearances, Severino has one complete game shutout and 14 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Severino took the loss vs. the Braves, giving up four earned runs in four innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. So far, he has been much better at home, going 7-2 with a 3.64 ERA compared to 4-5 with a 5.19 ERA on the road.
Freddy Peralta is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates, where he took the loss. In that start, he gave up 2 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking at his overall numbers, Peralta has made 32 starts and has a record of 11-9. His ERA for the season is 3.68, along with a WHIP of 1.22. Peralta’s batting average allowed is .215, and he has a total of 26 home runs allowed. The right-hander has turned in 11 quality starts and is averaging 10.36 strikeouts per nine innings. So far, Peralta has 200 strikeouts, which ranks 10th in MLB.
MLB Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML -140
