MLB Player Props 8/7
Monday felt like it would be a great day on the props board, but the baseball Gods had other plans. Brent Rooker and Bobby Witt Jr. fell short and pushed Monday into a 1-2 night. The hitting props are usually tough to track and that was easily the case on Monday. Now we look to bounce back and ensure we execute perfectly.
The board on Wednesday has a lot of heavy hitters pitching, but there are some diamonds in the rough potential as well. It is my job to weed out the filler and find the top three. Here are the best three I found for Wednesday, August 7th.
Michael King 6+ Strikeouts (-175)
The first prop that made my eyes light up was Michael King and his strikeouts. I was originally going to take the actual over, but I want to play it a little bit safe. When you use the alternate strikeouts for King at 6+, you can see that he has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 starts. Furthermore, King has a great matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates are in the bottom 10 in K%, while also placing in the bottom 10 in AVG and OPS. Their bats have been cold for most of the year and can strike out against pitchers that have strikeout capabilities. King is in the 75th percentile in Whiff% and 85th percentile in K%. King has lights-out stuff that the Pirates might struggle with.
King is also on the road tonight where he excels. He has a 2.62 ERA on the road compared to his 4.25 ERA at home. Also, King managed 29 strikeouts in 4 starts in July, which equates to an average of 7.25 strikeouts. I think King has a great game today, but I want to play it safe with 6+ strikeouts.
Cole Ragans Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Cole Ragans has been hit-or-miss for me whenever I put his props in the articles. However, I think he is such a talented pitcher who has A+ stuff on any given night. He has amazing strikeout ability and depending on the matchup, Ragans can shove. I believe tonight can be one of those nights.
The Boston Red Sox mash the ball against lefties, but they also strike out a bunch. They are currently the worst team in K% versus left-handed pitchers. The team can put up runs in bunches but tend to struggle at times swinging for the fences and whiffing. However, Ragans is capable of allowing some runs at home. Ragan’s ERA balloons when he pitches at home, as he has a 3.80 ERA in his home ballpark, but that is not what we should be looking at. He has 13 home starts compared to 10 on the road but has 93 strikeouts at home to only 66 on the road.
There is a chance that the Red Sox can find some hits and maybe even some home runs, but I still love the play on Ragan’s strikeouts. The matchup is perfect for a pitcher of his caliber, but this could be his last chance with me and his future props.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-150)
I remember throughout the first month of the season, a lot of people were wondering if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was falling off of a cliff and maybe his hype was about to fizzle out for good. Well, that was a silly thought. Vladdy has been amazing all season long and is putting up Silver Slugger type of numbers. A .317 AVG with 22 home runs, 72 RBIS, and .928 OPS is elite. That is why seeing this line at 1.5 with the matchup he has really caught my eye.
Vladdy is killing lefties this year, batting .338 with an OPS of 1.105. He has also been hot since July and is keeping it up in August. He gets to face the newly-acquired Trevor Rogers of the Baltimore Orioles. A lot of people were confused as to why the Orioles would use some of their farm system for a guy who has a 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Nonetheless, they saw something in him and he gets the ball on the bump tonight in Toronto.
Rogers struggles against right-handed batters, which is why I love Vladdy today. Righties are batting .277 with 11 home runs, 47 RBIs, and slugging .464. Rogers simply might not have it. In his very first start, Rogers allowed 6 hits, 5 earned runs, and 3 walks. I looked at his props to fade, but the 1.5 for someone as hot as Vladdy was too good to pass up.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
