MLB Player Props 9/4
Last Wednesday was on the verge of seeing us hit a sweep on the player props slate. However, Chris Bassitt was one allowed hit short of that dream coming to fruition. After a long week away, we look to regain momentum in the final month of the regular season.
The season is heading toward the finish line with some teams jockeying for playoff positions, while others are ready to hit the beaches of Cancun. No matter what, that does not stop us from finding the best props to bet on. Here are the three best I found for September’s first set of props.
Albert Suarez to Record a Win (+100)
This is a prop I haven’t touched all season, but I think it is worth the risk tonight in this game. This prop relies on a multitude of things. Albert Suarez has to pitch 5+ innings and be good, while the White Sox implode and get behind by the time Suarez is out of the game, and the Orioles hold onto to the lead for the rest of the game. That is a lot to ask for with one singular prop, but the White Sox are the White Sox.
The White Sox are 5-45 in their last 50 games and are on pace to become the worst MLB team in modern history. They are atrocious and the Orioles can easily strike early with Jonathon Cannon on the mound for the White Sox. Cannon has a 5.40 ERA and OBA of .315 on the road.
Then there is Suarez who had an amazing August. In six outings during August, Suarez had a 1.97 ERA with an OBA of .233. The bullpen is fresh and Suarez can allow hits but lacks the strikeout prowess to warrant any of his other props as a must-play. However, the White Sox are putrid and need to be faded in some capacity. Cannon’s props are a little inflated and with this being plus money, I believe this a great risk to take.
Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
One of the best pitchers over the last month has surprisingly been Spencer Arrighetti of the Houston Astros. In 5 August starts, Arrighetti maintained a 1.95 ERA, 47 strikeouts, and an OBA of .168. In three of those starts, he finished with double-digit strikeouts. I think this line is way too low.
Arrighetti is facing a Cincinnati Reds squad that does strike out a good amount. They are the 8th-worst team in K%, which is a stat that Arrighetti ranks in the 86th percentile. The Reds also struggle at home. They have the 5th-worst AVG while holding the spot for 4th-worst in strikeouts at home.
The line might be too low due to Arrighetti’s struggles on the road for most of the season, but August could have been his coming-out party. This is an over he has eclipsed in 7 of his last 10 starts that date back before his hot August. This line is screaming at me to take it and I happily oblige. Take the over and trust the emergence of Arrighetti.
Seth Lugo Under 6.5 Hits Allowed (-165)
Seth Lugo has been one of the more consistent pitchers I like to bet on. He doesn’t have a lot of blow-up starts and keeps to the mean most of his outings. However, August was a disastrous month. He had a 4.91 ERA, which is a far cry from his 3.12 for the entire season. Despite the down month for Lugo, I love his chances tonight against the Cleveland Guardians.
Lugo recently faced them at home and was lights out. He only allowed 4 hits and struck out 10 batters. The Guardians come back to Kansas City to take on this Royals team that is amazing at home, while the road is a place of concern for the Guardians. For the entire season, the Guardians are the 6th-worst team in road batting average, but it has been even worse over the past month. The Guardians had an AVG of .168 over the past month, which was the worst in baseball by a wide margin.
The Royals are 3-7 in their last 10 games and need to bounce back to firmly hold their spot in the playoffs. Luckily they get to play at home where they are 41-30 for the season. They know how to flip it on for their home games and that goes for the pitching and hitting. The Guardians are the opposite of that notion. The Lugo line is way too high and is something that needs to be bet on for the night.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
