MLB Player Props 7/3
Last week ended how it started with another 2-1 night. Logan Gilbert only allowed 4 hits, as he pitched a great game. However, Cristopher Sanchez came through again and might be a must-play whenever he steps on the mound. Certain players are becoming absolute locks to be in the top props on a given day. Sometimes you need to ride the hot hands while staying away from the inconsistencies.
Today is another full slate with all games starting at 6 PM or later. With so many prop options, it is going to be difficult to narrow it down to three. That is why I am here to find the best three props of the day. Here are my top three props for the night, as we head to a wonderful 4th of July.
Jared Jones Over 1.5 Walks Allowed (-125)
Jared Jones has been one of the bright spots for a young Pittsburgh Pirates team. We all know about Paul Skenes and his generational talent, but Jared Jones is also showcasing great potential. However, Jones is a rookie pitcher and can be erratic at times.
In six straight starts, Jones has allowed 2 or more walks. In five of those six starts, he allowed more than 2 walks. He has had bad starts with those high walk totals, but he has also managed to have great starts with those high totals. That is why I want to tackle the walks-allowed prop.
The St. Louis Cardinals are hot right now, as they are 7-3 in their last 10 games and 44-40 for the entire season. They are a good team right now and their bats are hot, but when it comes to walks they are a below-average team, as they rank 19th BB%. However, they can be patient when they face wild pitchers.
Jones is very good and can even have a solid outing tonight. However, I think there is an issue he needs to situate with his walks. Tonight might be the night when he fixes it, but I want to ride this current trend until he finally fixes it.
Mitchell Parker Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110)
The New York Mets looked dead to begin the year. They were an embarrassment and were ready to go full tank mode. Then Grimace threw out the first pitch and things changed. Now they are in a position to be a Wild Card team this year and might even keep some of the players that were rumored to be on the move at the deadline. They are on fire and look to keep it going.
Tonight they face their divisional rival, the Washington Nationals. On the bump for the Nationals is Mitchell Parker, who is having a solid rookie campaign. However, the issue for Parker is that he is a left-handed pitcher and that is what the Mets feast on.
The Mets are top 5 against lefties in AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. They are also ranked 2nd in WRC+ against lefties. Furthermore, they are the best road-hitting team as well. All of the signs point to a rough night for Parker, which is why I am taking the over hits allowed for him.
Michael Wacha Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120)
As I was doing some digging, this prop kept popping up as being one of the more enticing ones. I was scared of it just due to how the Tampa Bay Rays steal my money, but I just couldn’t resist any longer. Michael Wacha pitched against this Rays squad and only allowed 3 hits in 6 innings of work.
The Rays are just an anomaly for me at this point. I could never get a good read on them. However, their hitting has been weak for most of the season. They are 20th in AVG and 4th-worst in K%. Furthermore, most of the lineup does not fare well in their at-bat history versus Wacha.
He has also been good over the past two months even with a few missed starts due to a foot injury. Since May, Wacha has only allowed this over three times. I love this prop even though it scares me just because of my history with the Rays, but I do have trust in Wacha keeping them at bay for at least under 6 hits.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
