MLB Player Props 8/19
A new week to win bets is hereafter sweating some last week. Wednesday was a 2-1 night and was super close to fulfilling the perfect 3-0 sweep. DJ Herz pitched a pretty solid game and only allowed four hits when the line was at 4.5. Fading Tyler Anderson and Mitch Keller was the right move, as both props hit easily.
Today we look to ride the wave of momentum and continue with another week of wins. There is a good chunk of props on the board that have caught my eye, but here are the best three I found to start the week.
Seth Lugo Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150)
The Kansas City Royals are still a strong team that is in a key position to make the postseason as a wild-card team. They continue to win and especially do so at home, where they are 38-25 compared to their 31-30 road record. Tonight they have one of their two All-Star pitchers Seth Lugo making the start at home.
No one expected this type of season from Lugo, but he has been consistent all year long. He’s 13-7 with an ERA of 3.04 and WHIP of 1.09. Lugo has been very good all season long and gets to play a team today in the Los Angeles Angels, where he already fanned 12 and only allowed 1 earned run.
It seems the Angels are in the midst of a never-ending rebuild. They have been awful all season but struggle a ton on the road. The Angels are in the bottom 7 of the MLB in both BABIP and wRC+. They can’t muster up runs on the road. That is why I think Lugo pitches a gem and does not allow more than 2 runs tonight.
Gavin Stone Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
I can’t pass up my favorite thing to do and that is betting against the Seattle Mariners bats. Whenever I see the opportunity, I have to strike. The winner of the easy strikeouts sweepstakes is Gavin Stone of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Stone has been solid this season, but no one would categorize him as a strikeout pitcher. However, he can hit this over against teams that tend to whiff a lot. There have been games against the White Sox or Rockies where Stone was able to garner 7Ks. The ability is there and the Mariners are the perfect team for Stone to unleash that side of him.
The Mariners are still awful at batting. In the past 15 days, the Mariners have the worst AVG at .199, while holding the top spot in K% at 29.6%. Randy Arozarena alone on Saturday struck out 5 times in 5 at-bats. They are currently in a free-fall, having lost the division, and are just fighting for a playoff spot at this point.
Stone has shown flashes where he can raise that strikeout total. The books usually inflate the strikeout prop for players that face the Mariners, but this one still seems right. The Mariners’ bats have been cold for several months now. They are the perfect group to fade with no hesitation. Go with Stone’s Ks and play the numbers for what I consider a must-play.
Trevor Rogers Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
The Seattle Mariners are a team I love fading, but Trevor Rogers is one of my favorite pitchers to fade. The books might be holding out some hope because he is on the Baltimore Orioles, who are true title contenders, but he might not be a major league pitcher within the next few years.
In his 3 starts with the Orioles thus far, Rogers has a 7.53 ERA and WHIP of 1.88. He has also not surpassed this over in those 3 starts. Tonight he takes the bump in New York to face the Mets, who thrive against lefties. The Mets are in the top 7 in AVG, BABIP, OPS, and wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers. This Mets squad is a lefties’ worst nightmare.
The Mets have a tasty matchup against Rogers, who they have seen before when he was with the Marlins. Rogers might have a tall task ahead of him once again and I want to be there for it. He is the perfect pitcher to fade when the matchup presents itself. Tonight is the night to do so please plan accordingly.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
