MLB Player Props 8/9
Wednesday felt like it would be a perfect sweep with our props. Michael King shoved, while Cole Ragans pulled through at the last second to get his over on strikeouts, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. couldn’t get it done at the end. He followed up that Wednesday performance with 3 hits, 4 RBIs, and a home run. That is just how it works sometimes and you have to move on to the next.
Friday is the perfect day to bounce back and go for it all before the weekend. The slate looks solid, and it is time to find some of the best plays to break the bank for those weekend drinks.
Jose Berrios 5+ Strikeouts (-170)
The Toronto Blue Jays have practically punted the season at the trade deadline with all of the trades they made. However, they still have a good deal of talent on this roster. Jose Berrios is one of the players on this squad who can be a key cog in the future while showcasing his talent now.
Berrios is having a somewhat inconsistent season. Heading into July, Berrios managed a 2.80 ERA, which has increased to a 4.11 ERA as of today. The road starts are what has been hindering Berrios the most. His road ERA is a staggering 5.29, while at home it is steady at 2.99. Luckily for us who are betting on him, he gets to pitch at home against the rebuilding Oakland Athletics.
I knew I wanted to bet on Berrios and I was stuck between his earned runs allowed prop and strikeouts. I decided to go with the strikeouts, as the A’s are in the bottom 3 in K%, while also being in the bottom 3 in AVG on the road. I love Berrios’ matchup today and thought he was a must-play with his alternate strikeout line.
Garrett Crochet Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+135)
This prop looks weird from a normal observation. Garrett Crochet is one of the best strikeout pitchers in all of baseball. He is 6th in the MLB in strikeouts and the 97th percentile in K%. So why would I fade him at such a low number? It’s simple. The Chicago White Sox do not want to play him.
The baseball world was shocked that Crochet didn’t get moved at the trade deadline. Rumors of him being moved have been circulating for months now and some even looked at it as a certainty. However, he is still in Chicago and their intentions are clear; they are going to move him this offseason. Unfortunately, the White Sox still need to play him with so many games left to go, and September call-ups a month away.
This has led the White Sox to lower his workload by a great amount. Crochet has not surpassed 4 innings pitched since June and that trend should be the norm moving forward. Crochet throws hard and the White Sox don’t want to jeopardize their number one trade piece.
In five straight starts of 4 innings or fewer outings, Crochet has eclipsed this over just one time. This has put the sportsbooks in a tough spot on how to market Crochet and his props. It is a conundrum, to say the least. With a fresh bullpen and a Cubs team that is 14th in K%, I have to take the risk and go with his under in Ks.
Ryne Nelson Over 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-145)
The Philadelphia Phillies were free-falling it felt like. Now you check the standings and they still have the best record in baseball, an 8-game lead in the division, and a 3-game lead for the one-seed. Tonight they try to continue with their revenge on the team that knocked them out of the NLCS last season the Arizona Diamondbacks.
Ryne Nelson has had struggles, but more specifically at home. Nelson has a 4.65 ERA for the season, but at home, it goes up to a 5.33 ERA. The Phillies’ bats might be starting to find a groove over the past few games. They were able to beat the Dodgers in a series and now are picking up some steam after a win last night.
This is the time to ride with the Phillies after a few rough weeks. Nelson can allow some hard-hit baseballs to a team that specializes in it. Nelson is in the 33rd percentile in hard-hit%, while the Phillies as a team are in the top 10 in that category. Look at Nelson potentially getting blown up by the Phillies lineup.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
