MLB Player Props 9/20
The season is drawing closer and closer, which means we only have a few more times to extend the bankroll. Wednesday was luckily a successful night. We went 2-1 on the day, but should’ve been 3-0. The read was perfect for the Landon Knack over on hits allowed prop, but he turned in the best performance of his career. That is how the cookie crumbles at times in the betting world.
This is one of the last Fridays of the regular season so let’s make it count. There are a ton of plays on the board, but here are the top three props to get the weekend rolling.
Jacob deGrom Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The one thing I have been consistent about all season is that I thoroughly enjoy fading the Seattle Mariners. However, there has been a change in my heart. I am going to ride with the Mariners’ bats today. I thought this day would never come, but after looking at the numbers and matchup, I think this is the right play.
Jacob deGrom is making his second start since last June due to Tommy John surgery. His first start was against this same Mariners squad and he threw for 4Ks in 61 pitches. The Texas Rangers’ season is over, but they want deGrom to get his groove back before the off-season. However, they are not going to run him into the ground in his second start back from a significant injury.
Furthermore, the Mariners have become a more patient team at the plate. They have led the league in K% all season long but over the last 30 days, they are 11th, while simultaneously placing in the top 10 in AVG. The Mariners are improving despite it potentially being too late in the playoff race for them.
If deGrom was fully healthy, this might not be a play I would want to touch. However, he will most likely still endure a pitch limit and I believe that 7 strikeouts would be too much.
Michael Wacha Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-155)
The Kansas City Royals are so close to clinching a playoff berth, which would be the first time since 2015. This team has surprised a lot of people and they try to get closer to the big stage today when Michael Wacha takes the bump against the San Francisco Giants.
This prop is a little bit confusing due to how good Wacha has been for the most part. He has only allowed this over once in the last two months and has only allowed this over at home once in his last eight starts. Speaking of home, that is where Wacha thrives. He lowers his ERA from 3.29 to 2.87 in Kansas City. This has been the theme all season. The line becomes a little bit more puzzling when you look at how poorly the Giants have been.
The Giants once again are not making the playoffs and the past 30 days did not help that matter. They are in the bottom 5 in a multitude of categories, such as AVG, BABIP, and wRC+. They are one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball and continue to struggle. Wacha and the Royals are amazing at home. This is the perfect scenario for Wacha and taking the under-earned runs allowed prop.
Zac Gallen Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
For most of the second half of the MLB season, I was riding with the bats of the Arizona Diamondbacks. They became the best-hitting team in baseball and they were matchup nightmares for a lot of opposing pitchers. However, I want to now turn my attention to their ace, Zac Gallen. I see the line at 5.5 strikeouts and I think it is time to roll with him.
I have tended to stay away from Gallen most of the time just because of past incidents of him burning me, but I love his line and matchup today. He takes on the Milwaukee Brewers, who have already clinched their division but are still struggling to some degree.
Over the past 30 days, the Brewers are in the bottom 7 in AVG and BABIP, but the one stat we need to look at is the K%. They are the 7th-worst team in K% in that same timeframe, whereas Gallen has been on a tear in that department.
Gallen has hit this over in five straight starts now and will look to make it six. The scary part is that his last start was against this Brewers team. Despite them seeing him recently, they are struggling, while Gallen is striking out the world. This might be risky, but I am down to rolling with Gallen.
Noel is from Philadelphia, PA. He went to West Chester University and graduated with a Bachelor’s degree in Communications in Media & Culture.
