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Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos Pick and Preview

By Picks Calculator

Posted on November 17, 2023

Non-Conference NFL Matchups

Point Spread: Broncos -2.5 | Total Points: 42.5

As the Vikings prepare for this non-conference matchup, the team has an overall record of 6-4. This includes riding a current five-game win streak. Against NFC opponents, they have a record of 6-2. This week, the Vikings will be looking to string together another win after taking down the Saints by a score of 27-19. In addition to winning the game, the Vikings managed to cover the spread as 3-point underdogs. The game’s over/under line stood at 40.5 points, and the final score exceeded this mark, reaching a combined 46 points.

Coming into this week 11 AFC matchup, the Broncos are in the middle of a three-game winning streak but still have a below .500 record of 4-5. During their last game, the Broncos came out on top against the Bills, finishing with a score of 24-22. Heading into the game, the Broncos were 7.5-point underdogs. With the straight-up win, they also covered the spread. In their most recent game against Buffalo, the pre-game over/under line was set at 47.5, leading the under to hit with a combined total of 46 points.

Minnesota Vikings vs Denver Broncos History

Last season, the Vikings and Broncos did not face off head-to-head. When looking back over the last three times these two teams have played, the Broncos have the leg up at 2-1. The Broncos also had the edge vs. the spread in these games, at 2-1. These games averaged a combined total of 53 points per game, leading to an over/under record of 2-0-1.

In their last five road games, Minnesota has averaged 24 points per game while allowing 19. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 4-0-1 vs. the spread.
In their last three games at home, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 2-1 while going 1-1-1 vs the spread. The team averaged 21 points per game in this stretch.
As the betting underdog, the Vikings have an ATS record of 3-0 in their last three games. In these matchups, their straight-up record was 3-0.
The last five games that Denver was favored, they have an ATS mark of 1-3-1 while going 2-3 straight up.

Notable Injuries

Minnesota Vikings

Olisaemeka Udoh – Quad (Out)
Alexander Mattison – Concussion (Questionable)
Marcus Davenport – Ankle (Out)
Nick Mullens – Back (Questionable)
Jordan Hicks – Lower Leg (Out)
Kirk Cousins – Achilles (Out)
Chris Reed – Lower Leg (Questionable)
Dean Lowry – Groin (Probable)
James Lynch – Knee (Out)
K.J. Osborn – Concussion (Probable)
Justin Jefferson – Hamstring (Questionable)
Cam Akers – Achilles (Out)
Brian Asamoah II – Ankle (Questionable)
Akayleb Evans – Calf (Questionable)
Jaren Hall – Concussion (Questionable)
Malik Knowles – Undisclosed (Out)
Joshua Dobbs – Ankle (Probable)
T.J. Hockenson – Ribs (Questionable)

Denver Broncos

Brandon Johnson – Hamstring (Out)
Jalen Virgil – Meniscus (Out)
Alex Palczewski – Hand (Out)
Ben Powers – Foot (Questionable)
Baron Browning – Wrist/knee (Questionable)
Ronnie Perkins – Quad (Probable)
Marvin Mims Jr. – Ankle (Questionable)
P.J. Locke – Ankle (Questionable)
Eyioma Uwazurike – Suspension (Out)
Greg Dulcich – Hamstring (Out)
Caden Sterns – Knee (Out)
Jonas Griffith – Knee (Out)
Tim Patrick – Achilles (Out)
K’Waun Williams – Ankle (Out)

Keys To Victory: Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota gets set to take on Denver, averaging 23.3 points per game. Joshua Dobbs and the Vikings passing game figures to be a key part of the game plan, as the team is throwing the ball at a rate above the league average. For the season, Dobbs has thrown for 1995 yards through the air. As a team, the Vikings are 3rd in passing yards. Minnesota will need to continue getting receiver T.J. Hockenson involved, as he has caught 71 balls for a total of 681 receiving yards so far this year. This season, the Vikings have put together a strong offense despite sitting below the league average in both rush yards and attempts.

Keys To Victory: Denver Broncos

With an average of 21.8 points per contest, the Denver offense currently ranks 14th in the league. An interesting note heading into the game is the fact that Denver is a below-average unit in passing yards per game. Yet, they have put together one of the better yards per completion figures in the NFL at 9.3 YPC. Denver comes in with an average of 4.7 yards per rushing attempt and have an average of 25.8 attempts per game. In terms of total rushing yards, they are currently ranked 11th in the league.

Betting Trends

Minnesota has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 4-1 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 24 points per game while allowing 19. The team also performed well vs the spread at 4-0-1.
In their last five games at home, the Broncos have a straight-up record of 2-3 while going 2-2-1 vs. the spread. The team averaged 21 points per game in this stretch.
Going back to their previous ten games as the underdog, Minnesota has an ATS mark of 4-5-1 while going 4-6 straight up.
In their last three contests as the favorite, Denver has a poor record vs the spread going 1-1-1. But they still put together a straight-up mark of 2-1.